Yep! Got to 13th in 18-19 season and 14th last year
2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I would have more respect for the metric if Gonzaga and St Mary’s weren’t also top 10. Having seen the Zags play I would say there are about 50 teams in the country who would beat them. They are a lazy team.
And Gonzaga lost at home last night! Ouch!
Just goes to show a single elimination tourney is a crapshoot. It’s cool because almost every team has a semi-realistic shot at the Final Four, but the same realistic chance to get bounced in in round 1 or 2.
IDK who that guy from Houston is, but he makes DeAndre Kane look like freshman Monte Morris.
If you told me he was in his 8th year in the NBA, I wouldn't have blinked.
And currently that chance seems greater with parity. A 15 over a 2 is only surprising now, not shocking.
Just get in the tourney and leave it out there to see what happens should be the expectation.
They should really do a 64 team tourney and every round a best of 7. For equity.
Gonzaga is #21 on Torvik and #14 on KenPom. They are a good team and can still score like crazy with all the weapons they have (#5 on Torvik OEFF) but can't play good defense (#111 DEFF).
They'd be an interesting #2 v. #3 matchup for Iowa State if it somehow came to that. Their excellent offense versus our smothering defense. There would be at least a little intrigue playing against Bolton again, though, but definitely not as much as we saw when Tyrese Hunter came back into town.
There's a reason "serious" professional basketball (e.g., the NBA and high-level European leagues) has series to determine the winner in the playoffs. Too much random can happen in just one game.
That being said, college sports brand is "madness," so the randomness is half the fun. They would never do it, but I would be curious to see how making the championship a best-of-three would look.
Still projected as a #2 seed (and #6 overall if you like that sort of thing) --
I said *projected,* too. Not "if the tournament started tomorrow." This is accounting for the Torvik projections of wins and losses throughout the rest of the season, which looks like this...
I said *projected,* too. Not "if the tournament started tomorrow." This is accounting for the Torvik projections of wins and losses throughout the rest of the season, which looks like this...
And it always annoys me whether it's March Madness or the college football playoff when people act like this is life or death and it's absolutely critical that the "best" team wins, gets in the playoff, etc.
It's college sports and pure entertainment. Turning around and seeing a college football conference championship game may or may not be more entertaining. Why on earth is it some huge deal if St. Peters isn't one of the best 4 teams in the country and they are in a final four?
Do your best to pick the most deserving teams based on a metric you set up and have some fun. It's a TV show, and a great one at that. Slogging through a 3, 5 or 7 game series between mismatched college teams to make sure we get the "best" team winning would be so ******* boring most times.
12-6 conference record would be an absolute banger of a season and give so much confidence going into next year with it's insane class coming in...that's just wild.
I love the incoming class, but they're still going to be true freshmen in the Big 12. They can't all be Lipsey as freshmen, and even he's had a few boneheaded turnovers leading to run-out points by the other team in the past few games that somebody like upperclassmen Monté Morris never would do.
Holmes, Kalscheur, Osunniyi, and Kunc is a lot to lose. That's at least three starters plus a sixth man playing starter-like minutes (once Kunc is back and either he comes off the bench or TJ moves Kalscheur back there, though I don't expect the current starting lineup to change). These guys are productive and have played thousands of college minutes, and such experience is not something you can synthesize.
Having Grill back for another season would be tremendous. Having Tre King back would not be far behind, and I think you need to keep at least one of the two big men who could come back (either Ward or Jones) as a high-level insurance policy. Mix that with Lipsey, Watson, the incoming freshmen, and TJ pulling a few Holmes/Osunniyi types from mid-majors who want to be part of the culture, want to win, and want to prove themselves at the P6 level, and you're going to have yourself a very dangerous team with talent and experience.
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I think I've mentioned this is another thread before, but if Ward stays next year he could be an absolute force with a full offseason working on his offensive game.
Lipsey
Grill
T. King
Billiew
Ward
Momcilovick
Watson
Jones
That's a hell of an 8 man rotation, assuming further offseason improvement, especially offensively, from Lipsey, T King, Watson, and Ward. and we shouldnt automatically exclude an improved E King and the other 2 freshman. Obviously this doesnt account for transfers out and then transfers in, but if the roster stayed set there would be a very solid mix of age and youth
Yeah, he has some crazy length and ups. Seems to have a nose for the ball.
He just doesn't have an offensive game outside of dunking and gets lost easily on defense.
But you can teach those things. You can't teach that athleticism and wingspan.
Hopefully he's a strong Osunniyi replacement with a full offseason of Green big-men coaching.
Ward is a different type of freak athlete. He has insane length and bounce. NBA level length and athleticism.
You are correct, but going to 2 out of 3 for the Final Four alone would add 4 or 5 games, and probably $150M. Moneymoneymoneymon-aaaaa!
Jeremiah Williams is going to play. Remember - he was the #1 target of the coaching staff (who never miss on their #1 target) in the transfer market.
Also, I'm really high on Milan - I think he and Omaha are day 1 starters.
And Hamilton will play too. He looks physically ready and has a shot that should translate.
I see it setting up like this:
backcourt: Lipsey / Grill / Williams / Hamilton
wings: Omaha / Milan / TKing / Watson
posts: Ward / Jones / transfer
