2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Figured out how I saw it- thought I had hit the title and went to the newest unread post, but went to page 1 instead.
You're not going to play your bench up 25+ if there is still 10+ minutes left in the second half. It's just not going to happen. You're going to go with your normal rotations until probably around 5 minutes left. It just so happens that we're blowing out teams extremely early in the games. The only guys I wish were seeing some more minutes from about the 13 minute mark to the 6 minute mark are Watson and Omaha. The other thing is that those two play the similar positions so they're not going to be out on the floor at the same time.
So who's going to play in the final minutes? You're not playing walk ons for 5 minutes, Hamilton & Rock redshirted, and Fish is hurt. By process of elimination you almost have to play Pav and Curtis Jones until you can put in Kelderman for Jones. You still want a big on the floor and with Ward out, you have to keep one of Bob or Tre in there until you can put the CEO in.
We're certainly running it up on teams, but we're not going to empty our bench with a lineup that flat out makes no sense. You're then putting those guys in crappy situations. You're not going to allow the other team who's usually still playing their starters to press and take a 30+ point lead and get it below 20 in the final 3-5 minutes.
So who's going to play in the final minutes? You're not playing walk ons for 5 minutes, Hamilton & Rock redshirted, and Fish is hurt. By process of elimination you almost have to play Pav and Curtis Jones until you can put in Kelderman for Jones. You still want a big on the floor and with Ward out, you have to keep one of Bob or Tre in there until you can put the CEO in.
We're certainly running it up on teams, but we're not going to empty our bench with a lineup that flat out makes no sense. You're then putting those guys in crappy situations. You're not going to allow the other team who's usually still playing their starters to press and take a 30+ point lead and get it below 20 in the final 3-5 minutes.
The belly-aching about the NET in December is a complete waste of time. Guess what? If Iowa State is still #6 in March, it means they will have either: A) beaten a bunch of really good teams or B) blown out all the Big 12 teams on their schedule they should beat and had very close losses to the really good teams. Either way, that's a tournament team; version A would just be seeded much higher than version B. If Iowa State is no longer #6 (or even top 15-20) in March, it means they probably had a disappointing Big 12 season. This will all get settled over the next 3 months.
The problem that Goodman and similar dolts have with the NET is that they want it to be a metric that measures resumes when it is much more like Kenpom or Torvik in that it is a predictive measure. Its flaw is that it seemingly doesn't weight competition as much as Kenpom or Torvik, but it's impossible to know that for sure, because the NCAA keeps it in a black box and has never revealed the actual math behind it.
The problem that Goodman and similar dolts have with the NET is that they want it to be a metric that measures resumes when it is much more like Kenpom or Torvik in that it is a predictive measure. Its flaw is that it seemingly doesn't weight competition as much as Kenpom or Torvik, but it's impossible to know that for sure, because the NCAA keeps it in a black box and has never revealed the actual math behind it.
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So like, uh, let the season play out?
What if I'm someone who thinks something should just happen because of highlight videos and recruiting stars?
It is but the second half does let off some.
Here it is based on Torvik win expectation by game for Iowa State...
You can see there is an upward trend in the moving average of win expectation over time.
Those last five in particular are a great chance to make a hard charge to finish strong.
Going to be a tricky coaching task for TJ and the staff to keep the team together early. They could easily start 1-4 in the Big 12 and still be one of the better teams in the conference this year.
These win probabilities seem crazy. ~30% difference in win probability between home and away against OU? Wow.
This is really well said. Agree with your only critique as well. I think TJ could maybe integrate DWat into some lineups with the regulars at earlier points in the game. Although he did get 12-15 minutes a game in every one of the pre-Orlando buy games... It's not a perfect 1 for 1 but Pav has started to cut into his rotational minutes.
The road game against the Sooners is projected as...
ISU 71
OU 73
The home game...
OU 69
ISU 74
Two-point road dog to five-point favorite at home.
~7 points worth of swing between home and away seems reasonable enough to me.
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Home court is worth 3 to 4 points in college basketball. So a 7 to 8 point swing playing home vs away.
Not to mention that you actually have to be able to pummel the easy opponents on both ends (at least in most of the models). You don’t get a boost just for scheduling them.
Who knows how this team will turn out but over the past decade plus even most of our better teams never had both the offense and defense to simultaneously do that. Sure they’d almost always beat them but you’d have games where a scrub team scored 70+ on Fred/Prohm teams and the first two years under Otz we could easily be held to 60 against anybody.
There’s no sense in scheduling murderers row as long as the Big 12 is on its own clear higher level of quality above everybody else. Arizona’s non conf schedule is insanely more difficult than most teams. I really think they’ll be at a disadvantage and get worn down next year if they do that again. It comes from the Gonzaga influence on their staff scheduling the same way and it’s just not remotely necessary for a P1 Big 12 team.
Isn’t this in the same line of thinking when the SEC schedules OOC football games in November and only playing 8 conference games?
For years I argued against KenPom because it’s not a resume ranking tool and it’s a predictor…yet 99.999999% of fans and media wanted to use it as such discussing tournament resumes.
At some point I just gave up and could see people preferred KenPom to select teams even though it’s not very good at ranking a resume of work. I just accept it now that almost everybody is irrational about it. It’s pretty clear net ranking is more like a predictor tool.
I still think they could create a better resume ranking tool but I’ve kind of given up asking for it or expecting it. Whatever Net ranking is, it’s closer to KenPom than a pure resume ranking tool would be. People would complain no matter what so I’m ok with it, at least it’s not CFP committee where they use absolutely nothing but the whims of a small handful of Big Ten homers.
Tamin has been ridiculously good so far this year.
The 16/6/6 averages get the headlines, and deservedly so, along with the fact that he's 17/40 from 3pt range after going 5/25 the whole season last year - but looking at the stats yesterday, he's on pace to blow away Jamaal Tinsley's season records for steals - by TWENTY! Tinsley had 98 steals his Jr year - Tamin had 73 last year (3rd best) and is on pace for almost 120 this year (depending on how many games we play).
He also - on the season - has 39 steals and only 27 turnovers
I’m guessing that also means Monte career steals record is in serious danger.
Tyrese would‘ve put both steals and assists in serious danger with four healthy years. We’ve really had some ridiculous point guard play compared to almost any other program. Even between Tinsley and Kane/Morris we had some really good ones like Blalock/Stinson and Diante G.
He'll probably be #7 on the career after this year (if he keeps up the pace), about a half season (~50) behind Monte
Lipsey's improvement from last year to this year is crazy. I'm pretty proud of myself this offseason for saying that he should at least be in the conversation as a possible leading scorer. However, I didn't really say that because I thought he could improve close to this much, but rather because I thought everyone else had enough questions around them that Tamin should be mentioned as the closest thing to a certainty.
It'll be interesting to see what his ceiling really is, given how much he improved in one offseason. I think it's kind of tough to tell because right now there are still some things he only does when he has to, rather than taking the game over right from the start.
