2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Statefan10]

This is really well said. Agree with your only critique as well. I think TJ could maybe integrate DWat into some lineups with the regulars at earlier points in the game. Although he did get 12-15 minutes a game in every one of the pre-Orlando buy games... It's not a perfect 1 for 1 but Pav has started to cut into his rotational minutes.

Yeah Watson still hasn't progressed yet where he needs to be to get significant run. He still isn't moving his feet well enough on defense and his rotations are slow. I think him and Omaha would be playing more if they were keyed up defensively. It takes time.

Pav and Jones coming into their games changes this team immensely though. I really hope both of them are starting to figure things out and these last few games aren't just outliers.

 

[Max57]

Hilton: +7
Lloyd Noble: yawn

 

[clone4life82]

Tamin has been ridiculously good so far this year.

The 16/6/6 averages get the headlines, and deservedly so, along with the fact that he's 17/40 from 3pt range after going 5/25 the whole season last year - but looking at the stats yesterday, he's on pace to blow away Jamaal Tinsley's season records for steals - by TWENTY! Tinsley had 98 steals his Jr year - Tamin had 73 last year (3rd best) and is on pace for almost 120 this year (depending on how many games we play).

He also - on the season - has 39 steals and only 27 turnovers

I might be in the minority but if Tamin continues this pace throughout the big 12, it wouldn’t surprise me if we lose him early and we start hearing rumbling and grumbling about him in the draft before the end of his senior year.

 

[NWICY]

It's a shot at ISU.

 

[bawbie]

It's a shot at ISU.

Not really - he's right, we haven't done anything to warrant a #5 ranking at this point.

 

[VeloClone]

Not really - he's right, we haven't done anything to warrant a #5 ranking at this point.

Good thing it is only #6 then.

 

[madguy30]

You're not going to play your bench up 25+ if there is still 10+ minutes left in the second half. It's just not going to happen. You're going to go with your normal rotations until probably around 5 minutes left. It just so happens that we're blowing out teams extremely early in the games. The only guys I wish were seeing some more minutes from about the 13 minute mark to the 6 minute mark are Watson and Omaha. The other thing is that those two play the similar positions so they're not going to be out on the floor at the same time.

So who's going to play in the final minutes? You're not playing walk ons for 5 minutes, Hamilton & Rock redshirted, and Fish is hurt. By process of elimination you almost have to play Pav and Curtis Jones until you can put in Kelderman for Jones. You still want a big on the floor and with Ward out, you have to keep one of Bob or Tre in there until you can put the CEO in.

We're certainly running it up on teams, but we're not going to empty our bench with a lineup that flat out makes no sense. You're then putting those guys in crappy situations. You're not going to allow the other team who's usually still playing their starters to press and take a 30+ point lead and get it below 20 in the final 3-5 minutes.

Not to mention there's been plenty of mixing rotations/line ups even during the first half of games before the game was not exactly well in hand (on the premise that a 20 point lead doesn't mean much in college basketball).

That included Omaha with four guards at one point a couple of games ago iirc. It didn't go well but perhaps it's something to work with in the future.

I've been saying it but you're just not going to find coaches that play their bench that early in the 2nd half.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Not really - he's right, we haven't done anything to warrant a #5 ranking at this point.

This is a formula. It’s not like we’re ahead of someone that should be at this spot. Formula gets inputs, formula spits out number. Same inputs for everyone. Is this some kind of weird carry over from the pre-metrics days that people can’t get past?

 

[NiceMarmot]

For years I argued against KenPom because it’s not a resume ranking tool and it’s a predictor…yet 99.999999% of fans and media wanted to use it as such discussing tournament resumes.

At some point I just gave up and could see people preferred KenPom to select teams even though it’s not very good at ranking a resume of work. I just accept it now that almost everybody is irrational about it. It’s pretty clear net ranking is more like a predictor tool.

I still think they could create a better resume ranking tool but I’ve kind of given up asking for it or expecting it. Whatever Net ranking is, it’s closer to KenPom than a pure resume ranking tool would be. People would complain no matter what so I’m ok with it, at least it’s not CFP committee where they use absolutely nothing but the whims of a small handful of Big Ten homers.

What you're looking for is WAB (Wins Above Bubble). Some people have argued the committee needs to add it to the team sheets when looking at profiles, and some have argued that should just be the metric that decides at-large inclusion. Just rank them by WAB and seed them accordingly. Torvik tracks WAB at his site.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[madguy30]

Yeah Watson still hasn't progressed yet where he needs to be to get significant run. He still isn't moving his feet well enough on defense and his rotations are slow. I think him and Omaha would be playing more if they were keyed up defensively. It takes time.

Pav and Jones coming into their games changes this team immensely though. I really hope both of them are starting to figure things out and these last few games aren't just outliers.

C. Jones could be a huge asset as the season goes on if he stays in the kind of defense and 'take what's there' type of offense he seems to be in.

Sam with Pav finding his three last game. His shot has always looked good and it's coming along.

 

[ClubCy]

It's a shot at ISU.

Not everything is a shot at Iowa State.

 

[NWICY]

Not really - he's right, we haven't done anything to warrant a #5 ranking at this point.

Are there other teams in the same situation? If so it's a shot at ISU.

 

[VeloClone]

Not everything is a shot at Iowa State.

I'm pretty sure your post is a shot at Iowa State...

 

[ClubCy]

Are there other teams in the same situation? If so it's a shot at ISU.

Iowa State is the only team in the Top 10 with zero quad 1 wins except for OU but they have twice as many quad 2 wins. We are clearly the outlier and it’s fine that Goodman pointed it out. Like many have said it’s a flawed formula that eventually sorts itself out.

 

[Die4Cy]

We are now the 3rd fastest paced team in the Big XII. I was not expecting that

Turnovers have played a gigantic role in that. ISU is #2 in the country in turnovers forced.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Iowa State is the only team in the Top 10 with zero quad 1 wins except for OU but they have twice as many quad 2 wins. We are clearly the outlier and it’s fine that Goodman pointed it out. Like many have said it’s a flawed formula that eventually sorts itself out.

The person or people that made it used the inputs they wanted to use. How is that “flawed”? It’s not spitting out incorrect numbers is it?

 

[TedKumsher]

When it comes to metrics/formulas driven by data/computers:
The main "flaw" is that people know the formula (or at least enough of how the formula works).
The second "flaw" is the limited set of inputs.

 

[CyPunch]

Indiana has an average margin of victory of just 7 points in their buy games. Plus they've played Louisville and Maryland close. They don't have a single blowout win this season. Go check out what that does to their NET/KenPom.

*They're also just not very good in general but you get my point*

 

[CloniesForLife]

C. Jones could be a huge asset as the season goes on if he stays in the kind of defense and 'take what's there' type of offense he seems to be in.

Sam with Pav finding his three last game. His shot has always looked good and it's coming along.

Yeah with Pav and C Jones becoming consistently reliable from 3 that gives you 5 guys that can hit from there (Pav, C Jones, Milan, Tamin and Gilbert) vs the 3 we relied on last year (Grill, Gabe, and Jaren). That does wonders for spacing.

 

[MeanDean]

Isn’t this in the same line of thinking when the SEC schedules OOC football games in November and only playing 8 conference games?

Yes, now breathlessly waiting ESPN to knob-slobber Big XII basketball.

...waiting.