2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

Gunnerclone

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Just did a little digging. KU has won at least a share of the B12 title every year over the past 18 years, except for 2. One of those two was National Champion Baylor in 2021.

Like @Gunnerclone mentioned. They have a way of people writing them off. Then, when the pressure is on teams seem to bow to KU.

Same with the refs.
 

bawbie

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Just did a little digging. KU has won at least a share of the B12 title every year over the past 18 years, except for 2. One of those two was National Champion Baylor in 2021.

Like @Gunnerclone mentioned. They have a way of people writing them off. Then, when the pressure is on teams seem to bow to KU.
This is one of the weakest KU teams during that stretch, though. Certainly not counting them out, their first 5 are very very good. They just have absolutely no depth, their bench provides absolutely nothing. That bites them, and can cause one loss to turn into two or three - as occurred after their OT loss in Manhattan.

I do think they'll be in the running for a share of the BigXII title, but mainly because I think everyone ends up with at least 5, if not 6, losses. If UT wins in Lawrence tonight, maybe I'll change my mind, but I don't see anyone better than 13-5. 4 teams tied at 12-6 is a very real possibility
 

JustAnotherTimeline

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This is one of the weakest KU teams during that stretch, though. Certainly not counting them out, their first 5 are very very good. They just have absolutely no depth, their bench provides absolutely nothing. That bites them, and can cause one loss to turn into two or three - as occurred after their OT loss in Manhattan.

I do think they'll be in the running for a share of the BigXII title, but mainly because I think everyone ends up with at least 5, if not 6, losses. If UT wins in Lawrence tonight, maybe I'll change my mind, but I don't see anyone better than 13-5. 4 teams tied at 12-6 is a very real possibility

Good point.

This group had no bench, and still figured it out though.

 
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VeloClone

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GD is going to go off tonight I think. His last few games shooting...

at Iowa State 1-4 from three 7 pts total
vs Kansas State 1-3 from three 9 pts total
at Kentucky 1-5 from three 13 pts total
at Baylor 2-5 from three
vs TCU 2-8 from three
at Kansas State 1-8 from three
vs Iowa State 5-9 from three

He hasn't been 'on' from three since we played in Lawrence. Since that game he's only 8-33 from distance (24%). He's due.
Or maybe he is just a freshman who has hit the wall. He was going great guns against the sisters of the poor earlier in the season but when he got punched in the mouth a few times in Big 12 play and when shots weren't falling he started to doubt and spiral. Nobody really knows which it is.

That being said, I sure would like to see Texas take a loss here and put ISU back in the driver's seat.
 

VeloClone

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Did I read that he was close to playing this past game but didnt? Guessing he's close, as is Lampkin. They'll probably both be back for us. Hope we don't have 3 leg kickout fouls vs. Miles.
I would really like to see TJ talking to the officials pregame about how we got burned on Miles kicking out at blowby defenders on his shot attempts and asking them to please watch for it since it is supposed to be a point of emphasis. Also ask them the question of whether such an action would count as an offensive foul or a flop just to plant the seed.

On the one hand officials don't like to be told how to do their jobs, but they don't like being made to look silly by a player fooling them with shenanigans either.

<cue shenanigans meme/gif>
 

Sigmapolis

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The Torvik data only goes back to 2008, but this is the third-worst Kansas team in those ratings --

1675719730865.png

The only ones worse were 2021 (which still managed a #3 seed with this roster) --

1675721594162.png

And 2015 (a blast from the past there) with this roster --

1675721647352.png

A small aside, but the 2020 team was absolutely screwed by COVID. This team is probably winning a national championship if the NCAA tournament is actually played that spring --

1675721708653.png
 

CyPunch

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KU's starting 5 is pretty solid but they have have major depth issues. Pettiford and Yesufu are bad rotational guards and they lack a true post presence. Udeh Jr has battled injuries and flat out doesn't look ready for this level despite being a McDonald's All-American.

Gradey **** is in a shooting slump and they really rely on him to hit those shots as Dajuan Harris doesn't look to score, McCullar's doesn't shoot it well, and KJ Adam's is an undersized post who plays mostly as a garbage man on offense. Saturday's game was a good microcosm as Jalen Wilson was virtually the only player who scored for them.
 
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ChickenNuggetMan

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The Torvik data only goes back to 2008, but this is the third-worst Kansas team in those ratings --

View attachment 109334

The only ones worse were 2021 (which still managed a #3 seed with this roster) --

View attachment 109337

And 2015 (a blast from the past there) with this roster --

View attachment 109338

A small aside, but the 2020 team was absolutely screwed by COVID. This team is probably winning a national championship if the NCAA tournament is actually played that spring --

View attachment 109339
Yeah they were so good in 2020. If they weren’t the dirty cheaters they are, I’d almost feel bad for them. 1 conference loss is insane.
 

Sigmapolis

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Yeah they were so good in 2020. If they weren’t the dirty cheaters they are, I’d almost feel bad for them. 1 conference loss is insane.

Their only conference loss that year was 55-67 (at home!) to a Baylor team that finished #2 on Torvik.

KU was #1 and Baylor was #2. The Big 12 just lapped the field that year.
 

Sigmapolis

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I think that year was destined to be big 12 matchup in the Final Four. It seemed both teams were on another level than everyone that year.

Then they turned around and proved it by winning the next two national titles.

Texas Tech was one possession away from winning the one before the cancelled one.

We're one shot against UVA and no global pandemic away from the Big 12 having a streak in basketball that would be starting to rival the vaunted streak the SEC has in football right now.
 

NWICY

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I wouldn't object to a "banked threes don't count" rule.

Make it a turnover/out of bounds or a jump ball or something.

Inside the arc, sure, the backboard is an important part of the offensive arsenal.

But nobody aims to bank in a three. If luck rewards you one, it shouldn't count.

You didn't "drill it." You missed terribly and got bailed out by some 1% RNG luck.

Oh for crying out loud Sig get your thumb out of your butt. Chance and luck, the way the ball bounces is what makes BB fun, yeah it doesn't always work in our favor but the chance of the sport makes it way more fun than you just running computer models to determine game winners. Last Saturdays broken plays leading to threes for us should have proven that.
 

LeaningCy

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Oh for crying out loud Sig get your thumb out of your butt. Chance and luck, the way the ball bounces is what makes BB fun, yeah it doesn't always work in our favor but the chance of the sport makes it way more fun than you just running computer models to determine game winners. Last Saturdays broken plays leading to threes for us should have proven that.

It's a lot easier to remember the ones against us than those in our favor.

For example, most of us remember Ben McLemore's banked three against us to force OT at Kansas, but who remembers Deonte Burton's massively important banked in three to knock off #9 Baylor:

(Shot is at about 1:20 left in the game)

 

Sigmapolis

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Oh for crying out loud Sig get your thumb out of your butt. Chance and luck, the way the ball bounces is what makes BB fun, yeah it doesn't always work in our favor but the chance of the sport makes it way more fun than you just running computer models to determine game winners. Last Saturdays broken plays leading to threes for us should have proven that.

They're fun as long as they weren't banked in!

:jimlad:
 

isutrevman

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It's a lot easier to remember the ones against us than those in our favor.

For example, most of us remember Ben McLemore's banked three against us to force OT at Kansas, but who remembers Deonte Burton's massively important banked in three to knock off #9 Baylor:

(Shot is at about 1:20 left in the game)


Yeah, but Burton was trying to bank it.
 
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