I think you're on the right track here, but the key date is really 2032 or so. That's when ACC schools can realistically begin to talk about what happens after 2035.I am not a fan of taking just Gonzaga.
But if the day comes for the Big12 to add schools like UA, ASU, UU, CU, UW and UO then adding Gonzaga as a member of the Big12 makes sense.
As fans we are looking at what happens on the field/court and what a school brings. Yormark has to consider that, but also the financial aspect. Also he's not only looking at what the Big12 needs to look like in 2025 but also have a vision of what it should look like in 2030 or 2035. His job is to turn the Big12 from the early 1960's version of the AFL into the 1970's version of the AFC.
Just because the SEC conference dominates today, doesn't mean that has to be the case in 5 or 10 years. Expanding the Big12 footprint to include FL, OH and UT was huge! The potential to add Pac12 schools would further cement the Big12's presence (and hopefully dominance) west of the Mississippi. And hopefully allows the Big12 to narrow the TV Rights gap between the Big12 and SEC/Big10 when the next round of negotiations occurs around 2030.
IMO if the media rights values of the Big12 & Pac12 are close, doesn't it make sense for the Big12 to merge with all (or most) of the Pac10? It doesn't hurt the NFL to have equal revenue sharing and two conferences- AFC and NFC. Why couldn't Yormark create a super "league" comprised of 2 conferences, the Big12 and Pac10?
B12/PAC full merger talks happened last summer, but didn't get very far when it became apparent that the valuations didn't work out. That means someone would be taking a haircut and it stands to reason it wasn't the PAC schools. After all, on conference re-upped their contract early and another conference is still dilly-dallying on theirs.
The B12 needs to be in a position to fend off the ACC's attempts to backfill after the B10/SEC take their picks. Ideally, the B12 would be able to pick a few from the remainders, but must be in the stronger position to do that. Until then, taking any school that has potential, but falls under the B12s average is a non-starter.
Gonzaga falls into as well. First, I don't think they come alone, they're going to need to come in with at least 1 more BB-only member. Who is that? Combined, what do they bring to the table? What's the worst case scenario of either or both fall off in the next decade?
IMO, BB-only members probably aren't worth the risk/reward at this juncture.