Williams & Blum Pod: How good is the ISU basketball job?

[Statefan10]

That team you compared them to made it to the NCAA title game. And you kind of blew off the fact that both THT, and Haliburton especially are as good or better than Culver right now. The ISU team was more talented. No way around it.

I think a legit argument could be made to ask which team was more talented. That’s my problem though. There is a talent argument between a team that went 9-9 in their conference slate and lost in the 1st round, and a team that won a share of the conference title and was a shot away from being national champions.

THATS the glaring issue. They were close teams in comparison of talent and night and day differences between talent usage via coaching scheme, player usage, in game coaching, etc.

 

[Sigmapolis]

That team you compared them to made it to the NCAA title game. And you kind of blew off the fact that both THT, and Haliburton especially are as good or better than Culver right now. The ISU team was more talented. No way around it.

Arguing that two 18-year old freshman -- obviously talented ones who are now turning into NBA studs years later -- is "more talent" than a guy who won CPOTY, second-team AA, and went sixth overall...

Well, that's a creative one. I'll give you that.

Did our roster have more long-term potential than theirs? Sure, had TH and THT stuck around, but Texas Tech was a loaded roster then with talent and experience ready to win. That's what mattered in '19.

Haliburton and Horton-Tucker could carry a Big 12 team to a conference title now, but not back then.

The comp between the two teams for the stud wing is not TH/THT versus Culver but Shayok versus Culver. Shayok was a dang fine player, but he was not quite as good as Culver was given all those honors.

I'll just emphasize their bigs were a lot better than ours. Period.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think a legit argument could be made to ask which team was more talented. That’s my problem though. There is a talent argument between a team that went 9-9 in their conference slate and lost in the 1st round, and a team that won a share of the conference title and was a shot away from being national champions.

THATS the glaring issue. They were close teams in comparison of talent and night and day differences between talent usage via coaching scheme, player usage, in game coaching, etc.

I never said 9-9 and bowing out to Ohio State wasn't a letdown.

I just don't know how you say we should have obviously won the Big 12 over Tech and KSU that season.

Those were two all-timers of a roster for those two schools. Ours was good but not that good.

 

[Carlisle Clone]

I was afraid of opening this thread due to the name of it and what my own opinion of the job is. Being a fan I understandably have an over inflated opinion of the job. I think its the 2nd to 3rd best job in the league. I can also understand the argument that due to pay and some newer facilities/location it could be ranked lower. Prohm hasnt done anything to change the value of the program/job.

Coaches have egos whether they show us or not. There isnt one who doesnt think they can stroll into Hilton and start winning again. Along with that ego comes salary desires and that will be the biggest hurdle here and NOT the perceived state of the program.

 

[Messi]

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6. IOWA STATE (38) – Hilton Magic is real. It began with Johnny Orr, who got the program rolling in the 1980s, and continued with Tim Floyd and Larry Eustachy. The Cyclones’ success was placed on hold until Fred Hoiberg led Iowa State to four NCAA Tournaments in five seasons. Fan support is terrific for a program that has only gone to one Final Four (1944) and has reached the NCAA tourney just nine times since 2000.

Where they win: “Fan base for sure. Hilton Magic. It’s second in the league behind Kansas. Fans travel and support it. Hilton Coliseum is the real deal.” – Big 12 head coach

The knock: “Definitely location. There’s a reason Fred Hoiberg went heavy on transfers and coaches have gone big with JUCOs. There’s just not much talent in the state.” – Big 12 assistant

 

[cyatheart]

I thought the discussion of the McDermott era was pretty good. Greg was a young coach, made some mistakes in adjusting to the Big 12, actually recruited well, Big 12 was just insanely good those years, just could never put the pieces together. I think Greg if he were hired now, would crush it at Iowa State. Right guy at the wrong time.

 

[Rabbuk]

They were coached by Steve Prohm

Unlucky

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

After March, I'll call up Jeff Goodman and get him on a pod with me to talk about where he - a national guy - sees the job against the rest of the Big 12. Will be interesting to see.

 

[Tlyon]

What happens if Naz doesn’t get hurt and doesn’t get his 5th year of eligibility? That along with Monte coming back for his senior season was an incredible amount of good luck for Prohms second year. Who knows if we make the tournament without those two things happening.

It’s all about how you frame the thought. For Naz getting injured, if he isn’t hurt he helps out a good team that needs some depth issues. Maybe we do better in b12 play or beat UVA in the tourney. Then if he doesn’t come back. Does Jackson step up and do better than Naz did? What about NWB’s role? Or could prohm recruit a different guard? It’s hard to see the what ifs

 

[cyclones500]

Perhaps using the word luck in any context is the error. This was not what was intended with the conversation.

When I listened to the pod, I heard "bad luck" and knew it was going to bring some backlash. I even cringed a little hearing it, but immediately realized it was within flow of the conversation.

You guys were discussing recent coaches and how their success/challenges/failure overlapped with Big 12's overall strength.

It wasn't intended as "Steve has failed because he's unlucky."

 

[JimDogRock]

Prohm has been horrible at out of bounds plays and situational play-calling, granted... we were used to Fred who may have been the best in CBB in that area.

Prohm's subbing has always driven me nuts. Waited til the 12 min mark to sub in Wigginton each half, by that time, he would only get a max of 24 mpg assuming he didn't need a breather once in. Didn't necessarily mind he came off the bench but just terrible time management for arguably your best playmaker.

OK, I've seen the substitution pattern for Wigginton brought up at least a couple times recently. I'm all for ripping on Prohm when it's due, but this is false.

Point 1 - Prohm waited til the 12 min mark to sub in Wigginton each half
Looking at the Play-by-Play page of Iowa State's last 5 games in the 2018-19 season I see that Wigginton had a recorded statistic before the 12 minute mark in every single half. All 10 of them.

Point 2 - Wigginton would only get a max of 24 MPG
Going from info from sports-reference.com Wigginton played in 29 games and had 25 or more minutes logged in 16 of those 29. In 4 other games he had 24 minutes, and 3 of the games below that were non-conference games.

And don't forget to factor in that Wigginton had a foot injury and missed 10 games.
There's your bad luck example for Prohm.

It worked out for THT and Haliburton because it jump-started their playing time and roles. The national buzz followed and they then went pro way before almost anyone following ISU basketball would have guessed.

 

[AuH2O]

Iowa State ranking pitifully in the KenPom luck stat is pretty constant throughout the Prohm era.

That says either... Prohm really has just been that unlucky... or you could invert the stat and call it a "clutch" stat, measuring how efficiently you distribute your net points in close games to manufacture Ws.

Prohm has not been good in close games. My normal thoughts there is that winning close games is mostly luck and teams regress to the 50-50 mean in the long term, but Prohm has tried my patience there.

Say Prohm and the team finished off three of the good teams we had good shots at (or even had on the ropes, objectively, with a few of them). We would be 3-15 in the Big 12 with three good wins.

Prohm might be back under those circumstances. Pollard would be looking for excuses to keep him given our fiscal situation, and a few big wins to point to with Hunter coming in... "Coach Prohm has done a fine job under the most difficult of circumstances with COVID this year and, despite having nearly a new roster, managed to win some big games and keep many other close. The team is on the cusp of something. With the returning talent and an ace PG recruit coming in, I think it is only appropriate to give him one more year to prove it." But that won't work now.

I really hate that KenPom refers to it as "luck." If that's what it actually was then over time it would be random, and you would not have programs be consistently unlucky. ISU under Prohm was very bad in the "luck" category. For quite a few years under Fran Iowa was too. It basically means you don't perform well in close games.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I really liked how Chris was like, “Ughhh ya just want to put this out there that Blum I don’t KNOW anything”...well yes, I’m sure that’s accurate, but that word trick isn’t working on us. We know you’re HEARING a lot of things. Why not share?

 

[Al_4_State]

Here's how I'd rank them

1. Kansas
2. Texas
3. ISU
4. OU
5. OSU
6. WVU
7. Tech
8. KSU
9. Baylor
10. TCU

Put WVU 4th and KSU 7th and I'd agree. Those fanbases should give them a boost. But we're splitting hairs there.

 

[Statefan10]

I never said 9-9 and bowing out to Ohio State wasn't a letdown.

I just don't know how you say we should have obviously won the Big 12 over Tech and KSU that season.

Those were two all-timers of a roster for those two schools. Ours was good but not that good.

I think it’s ridiculous to say we should’ve won the Big 12. I think we should’ve competed for it though at the end and we got 6th in the conference.

 

[NoCreativity]

Here's how I'd rank them

1. Kansas
2. Texas
3. ISU
4. OU
5. OSU
6. WVU
7. Tech
8. KSU
9. Baylor
10. TCU

Texas basktball has pathetic fan support. There is no way they are the 2nd most coveted job in the conference. The 3 northern teams along with West Virginia have by far the best fan support and facilities compared to the Texas schools.

Tech looks to be closing that gap but that's to be expected when you get a coach like Beard.

 

[Al_4_State]

Texas basktball has pathetic fan support. There is no way they are the 2nd most coveted job in the conference. The 3 northern teams along with West Virginia have by far the best fan support and facilities compared to the Texas schools.

Tech looks to be closing that gap but that's to be expected when you get a coach like Beard.

The endless well of $ and in-state talent is what props Texas up. Their fanbase sucks, as does Baylor's and TCU's. Tech has the only good basketball fanbase in Texas, and they go dormant quick when there's struggle.

The difference between Tech and the other Texas schools is that they fill the gym when they're good, and it's rowdy.

Pre-Thunder, the Oklahoma schools had fan support on par with us and the Kansas schools. I'd like to see them get back there.

 

[brokenloginagain]

I really enjoyed the podcast - I think its the best ISU podcast discussion available every week.

And then I read this thread to find our why it was actually in fact terrible.

 

[NoCreativity]

The endless well of $ and in-state talent is what props Texas up. Their fanbase sucks, as does Baylor's and TCU's. Tech has the only good basketball fanbase in Texas, and they go dormant quick when there's struggle.

The difference between Tech and the other Texas schools is that they fill the gym when they're good, and it's rowdy.

Pre-Thunder, the Oklahoma schools had fan support on par with us and the Kansas schools. I'd like to see them get back there.

Agreed, plus they are obsessed with football in that state and they have multiple NBA teams. We just don't have that here and in Kansas and West Virginia.

 

[Tlyon]

Arkansas has 8 players that did not play for the Hogs last season.

USC 5

TTU 5


I’m sure others but those were a few that came to my mind.

Good coaching can overcome lack of roster continuity and covid challenges

I do think this is a majority of the case, but there are some counter examples too. Kentucky being the biggest one. How do we explain the good coaches that are struggling? Honestly a genuine question because I have no idea