When I think of KU failing in the NIL era it's not from having the #1 pick refuse to play, it's from all the 4/5 star guys that left after a year or two because they weren't getting enough playing time / weren't willing to stay and be developed into a great player as a redshirt Junior / Senior.
Top end talents who are ready for the NBA leave, and high end guys who need to develop will transfer for more playing time or more money. You just can't have a 5* riding pine like you used to.
Imagine this year's KU team if they still had 5* Zuby Ejiofor and 5* Ernest Udeh down low. That team would be a natty favorite.
Imagine how well Omaha Biliew would fit in year 3 of Otz, but he left because he's 5* and wasn't playing, and ISU couldn't justify paying market value for a 5* who doesn't play.