I think the writers know. They have stories planned for all of the other characters in the coming seasons, so they know.
They wouldn't have added in the "Taking it like a champ" line if it were one of the smaller characters. That tells me it's Abraham, Daryl, or Glen.
I don't think it's at all a stretch that they haven't decided on who is going to die. Television shows change storylines mid-season all the time, let alone between seasons. Obviously this show is not dedicated to following the source material. They could have several ideas on how they want things to go. I guarantee you they dont have the story line locked in for multiple seasons.
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