Tennesee State Thread

[VeloClone]

A number 2 seed, if we lose

I know this is a bit of a joke, but at some point you have to risk something if you want to have a little bit of a buffer and still be considered for a 1 seed. ISU is not going to go undefeated in the Big 12 - I don't think we will see anyone do it for as long as this conference remains this strong. You need to have a little more strength in the non-con so that is one less thing for them to point at when they are trying to parse teams for those elite spots.

ISU finished with a SOS at 28. If they have maybe 1 fewer losses (especially the Q2 Cincy loss) and their SOS is somewhere in the 8-15 range they are right there in that conversation.

 

[AllInForISU]

Thankfully the staff doesn't take this approach. Every team at this point has players that can play "above" their level so better prepare like they can beat you....and that is what our staff will do. I think we'll win comfortably, but the tournament is littered with teams that have lost to "OVC level" players.

Obviously the staff doesn’t take that approach as they shouldn’t. But every year fans talk themselves into thinking the team Iowa State is playing is all of the sudden going to be lights out from 3 or something crazy.

 

[cydnote]

I appreciate everybody's viewpoint, but it seems like we've beat this dead horse before. As there seems to be more parity at the top going forward I don't see a glaring difference between a one and two seed. We also don't know to what extent the staff values in winning while building comradery/cohesion with new pieces each year, nor what the budget allows to schedule up. Of course we would like to win every game and that should remain the goal but those non-cons were not the reason we dropped to a 2 seed--as proven by the first reveal. Why change what's working with albeit small but additional risk?

 

[Kinch]

Nolan Smith will be a P4 head coach some day.

 

[WastedTalent]

I know this is a bit of a joke, but at some point you have to risk something if you want to have a little bit of a buffer and still be considered for a 1 seed. ISU is not going to go undefeated in the Big 12 - I don't think we will see anyone do it for as long as this conference remains this strong. You need to have a little more strength in the non-con so that is one less thing for them to point at when they are trying to parse teams for those elite spots.

ISU finished with a SOS at 28. If they have maybe 1 fewer losses (especially the Q2 Cincy loss) and their SOS is somewhere in the 8-15 range they are right there in that conversation.

Right. It's the Cincinnati, TCU, or Tech at home losses that hurt. Those 3 losses, plus not knocking off a top team on the road, moved them down.
I know conference standings is not a criteria for the committee, but finishing first in the big power conferences is usually rewarded.

 

[Al_4_State]

Just put $30 on the TSU money line. If we lose, the pain will be significantly dulled. If we win, it's the easiest $30 I ever spent.

 

[ESciGuy]

I know this is a bit of a joke, but at some point you have to risk something if you want to have a little bit of a buffer and still be considered for a 1 seed. ISU is not going to go undefeated in the Big 12 - I don't think we will see anyone do it for as long as this conference remains this strong. You need to have a little more strength in the non-con so that is one less thing for them to point at when they are trying to parse teams for those elite spots.

ISU finished with a SOS at 28. If they have maybe 1 fewer losses (especially the Q2 Cincy loss) and their SOS is somewhere in the 8-15 range they are right there in that conversation.

Cincy is not a Q2 loss. All our losses are Q1.

 

[State2015]

Just put $30 on the TSU money line. If we lose, the pain will be significantly dulled. If we win, it's the easiest $30 I ever spent.

I do this for pretty much every 'big' game we're favorites in. If the other team is plus money, it's a no brainer to me as far as emotional hedging

 

[VeloClone]

Cincy is not a Q2 loss. All our losses are Q1.

Sorry, I meant Q1b. You are correct.

Thanks for the correction!

 

[not-the-manager]

Just put $30 on the TSU money line. If we lose, the pain will be significantly dulled. If we win, it's the easiest $30 I ever spent.

I do this for pretty much every 'big' game we're favorites in. If the other team is plus money, it's a no brainer to me as far as emotional hedging

You're more dedicated than me, I don't think I can pony up for the first game. I will absolutely be hedging from R32 on though

 

[VeloClone]

A number 2 seed, if we lose

I'm not so sure about that. UConn lost at home to Creighton and that ended up a Q3 game. They still got their 2 seed.

 

[BCClone]

So ISU's non-con average was 194.3

And here are Tenn State's non con games:
19 Tenn
63 Belmont
111 UNLV
159 W Kentucky
239 UNC Asheville
288 Chattanooga
310 Alabama A&M

Average 169.9

They also had 3 Non D1 games which I believe don't factor into the NET or season W-L.

So that is why their non-con was ranked higher.

But as others have said, it is a stupid stat especially when the two SOS metrics they have are non-con SOS and overall SOS. The non-con is in both so those whose strength is in the non-con because they play in a crap league get their strength counted twice while those who play in gauntlet leagues like the Big 12 only get their strength counted once.

ISU could do themselves a big favor by replacing two of the worst buy game opponents with a couple of games in the 145-155 range. Strategically place them when the team is just slogging through terrible opponents. That would bring their average for Non-con games down to the neighborhood of Tenn State's and help the overall SOS at the end of the season. It would also be fewer Q4 games and a couple more Q3 games on the profile.

We could do that, or we can do what we did this year and be a 2 seed.

 

[CoachHines3]

Just put $30 on the TSU money line. If we lose, the pain will be significantly dulled. If we win, it's the easiest $30 I ever spent.

did this numerous times throughout the year.. mainly on the road.

Won good money @cincy, @tcu, and even took Tech ML at home.

 

[VeloClone]

We could do that, or we can do what we did this year and be a 2 seed.

Possibly. But if ISU falls on their face and doesn't do anything in the conference tournament their SOS is a lot less attractive and they might not get the 2. You also have to admit that several of the competing teams did ISU a favor and stumbled right at the finish line. It might be nice to be competing for a 1 or 2 seed rather than for a 2 or 3 seed.

Finally, I think they learned that you can't count on things going your way in the exempt tournaments for the strength of your schedule. ISU even did everything right this year in the PET and still got hosed. Last year ISU lost their first game and then even the strength of the consolation bracket never made it to ISU.

 

[Kinch]

Possibly. But if ISU falls on their face and doesn't do anything in the conference tournament their SOS is a lot less attractive and they might not get the 2. You also have to admit that several of the competing teams did ISU a favor and stumbled right at the finish line. It might be nice to be competing for a 1 or 2 seed rather than for a 2 or 3 seed.

Finally, I think they learned that you can't count on things going your way in the exempt tournaments for the strength of your schedule. ISU even did everything right this year in the PET and still got hosed. Last year ISU lost their first game and then even the strength of the consolation bracket never made it to ISU.

This year the committee really rewarded performance e in the conference tourney.

 

[CascadeClone]

This year the committee really rewarded performance e in the conference tourney.

I was looking at probable seeds on friday (at work lol) and Purdue was way down on my list, maybe a 4. They didn't have as many Q1 wins, and their WAB was lower than others.

They got 3 more Q1 wins and jumped their WAB as well in the B1G tourney and got a 2. I was shocked, and the good wins in the BTT are the only possible explanation.

 

[Kettes]

Sorry, I meant Q1b. You are correct.

Thanks for the correction!

If they are split into 8 parts, are they still "Quads"???

 

[VeloClone]

If they are split into 8 parts, are they still "Quads"???

They are split into 4 quads, but then quads 1 and 2 are further split. Quads 3 and 4 are not split into sub quads.

I'm glad they are because a home win against #5 Houston and a road win at #9 Purdue shouldn't be in the same category as a road win at #74 Oklahoma State.

 

[madguy30]

Here's their championship game.

They seem to play kinda wild with the ball and look to talk a lot.

This game got to 12 points at about 11 minutes left in the 2nd half before they cruised the rest of the way.

 

[jsb]

Just put $30 on the TSU money line. If we lose, the pain will be significantly dulled. If we win, it's the easiest $30 I ever spent.

What do you do with that blood money? I'd have to do some sort of repentance with my winnings.