They would have had 1st and 10 in the Texas 35 yard line with a minute and one time out. I would have given them more than a 40% chance to win in regulation, but we'll never know because the folks in the review booth made sure if that.They’d have had maybe a 30-40% chance to win in regulation. A team with a good fg kicker would’ve had maybe 80-90% chance, the penalty would’ve put them on edge of range and doubtful Texas gets ball back unless they score td immediately.