Social Distancing

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by adjl, Mar 20, 2020.

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Should Parents Let Their Kids Hang Out With Friends During This "Break"?

  1. Yes

    27 vote(s)
    14.3%
  2. No

    125 vote(s)
    66.1%
  3. Maybe Just 1 Friend

    37 vote(s)
    19.6%
  1. jsb

    jsb Well-Known Member
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    That's not really how it works. Your kid plays with their friend "Sue". It turns out that your kid has it, but has no symptoms. She gives it to Sue. Sue's parents are idiots, so they host a quarantine party for 10 people. Sue gives it to her dad's friend "Bob". Bob then gives it to his wife who is a nurse.
     
  2. CloniesForLife

    CloniesForLife Well-Known Member
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    Question: Me and my siblings (plus a couple SOs) have hung out a couple times. 5 people total. All working from home and only doing necessary shopping (trying to limit that as well). Should we stop doing that? None of us are hanging out with anyone else. I thought that would be fine but this thread has me re-thinking that.
     
  3. cycloneG

    cycloneG Well-Known Member

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    If you're all shopping at different places and times, then you're circle of possible infection is quite large.
     
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  4. CloniesForLife

    CloniesForLife Well-Known Member
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    That is a good point. We were trying to be smart but I suppose we should limit our interaction to video chats for now.
     
  5. cycloneG

    cycloneG Well-Known Member

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    You could do that or one person could do all the shopping.
     
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  6. madguy30

    madguy30 Well-Known Member

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    If it's in question, I'd think the answer is yes.
     
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  7. Stormin

    Stormin Well-Known Member

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    Is the circle exclusive? Except for the same ones every time? There is some risk because of the chance that one could become infected randomly and infect the group. But as long as everyone remains only exclusive to the group then you could be okay.

    We have one friend that comes over for coffee for 20 minutes. He is locked down otherwise. Maybe gets groceries every 7-10 days. He is older. Has no other family in area. We maintain social distance and clean table when he leaves. Willing to take risk but exercise safety. And if we do get infected then our contacts are easy to trace. As long as everyone remains true to only the circle you might be okay.
     
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  8. Cycsk

    Cycsk Well-Known Member
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    I read in the paper about the Ames School District running its buses in order to pick up groups of 10 kids at a time in order to bring them to schools to pick up grab-n-go lunches. That can't be right, can it?
     
  9. mynameisjonas

    mynameisjonas Active Member

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    Smfh
     
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  10. isucy86

    isucy86 Well-Known Member

    Apr 13, 2006
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    Seems to me 4-6 weeks of inconvenience prevents this from becoming a 3 month problem. So people need to limit person-to-person interactions, unless necessary.

    IMO too many people view this as an "old" people issue. While they might be impacted more severely, the demographics of cases in Iowa indicate it is an equal opportunity pandemic:

    0-17 yrs - 1%
    18-40 yrs -26%
    41-60 yrs -34%
    61-80 yrs -34%
    81+ yrs - 4%
     
  11. SayMyName

    SayMyName Active Member

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    Saw this posted elsewhere, and thought it relevant to this discussion.

    tl;dr summary - yes, every single external exposure matters!

    "Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I am also tagging my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post. Please correct me if I am wrong (seriously).

    Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

    First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn’t have to. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

    Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

    In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

    Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

    - Jonathan Smith, Yale University
    March 19, 2020"
     
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  12. demoncore1031

    demoncore1031 Well-Known Member

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    You're not being unreasonable. Better safe than sorry. I took my kids out of school few days before they shut it down and I haven't let them go out too much. Kids don't like playing outside these days since they have all these electronic gadgets, so that works I guess.
     
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  13. SayMyName

    SayMyName Active Member

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    Here's another science-based and math-supported explanation of why this stuff matters:

     
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  14. Angie

    Angie Tugboats and arson.
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    They are making everyone sit 6+ feet apart, and aren't allowing in big groups. Once they hit 10 people, they don't pick anyone else up.

    It isn't ideal, but getting kids fed is a huge deal when school is out.
     
  15. Isualum13

    Isualum13 Well-Known Member

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    Saw this today.
     

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  16. madguy30

    madguy30 Well-Known Member

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    Nobody can't get it.

    The 'old' thing is the concern that they are more prone to die, along with anyone at any age with pre-existing conditions.

    I know old people though that are acting more similarly to what the young people are being painted as. They seem to think that if they only see a few people they're somehow blocked from it. Scary.

    It's going to be more than a 3 month problem.
     
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  17. BCClone

    BCClone Well-Known Member

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    Around here, the 17 and under and the 70 and over are the worst. They young say they won’t get it. The old say I didn’t hear anybody cough so they are fine. It’s nuts.
     
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  18. CycloneErik

    CycloneErik Well-Known Member

    Jan 31, 2008
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    That's right.
    Apparently, it's an Iowa thing that the meals can't be delivered, so this is the attempt to make lunch available.
     
  19. BCClone

    BCClone Well-Known Member

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    Think it would be best for all to use the school minivan and say these are the pick up times and the country will be the bus route times and all items will be dropped off at the end of driveways or tossed to kids at bus pick ups.
     
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  20. CycloneErik

    CycloneErik Well-Known Member

    Jan 31, 2008
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    Maybe a fleet of vehicles. It would overwhelm what one minivan is going to accomplish.

    Can't use bus route times for lunch, because that's nobody's lunchtime. Using the bus pick up points would be the same personal congestion as handing them out at school.

    There's another food program through the schools using a drive-thru approach. That's the best look to me.
     
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