Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Yeah but they also represent schools that would be harmed by antitrust or other "legal avenues." I think you're reaching here. Even if some kind of intervention were attempted, do you think all Senators and Reps from these states would vote in favor?
Alabama
Arkansas
California
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Washington
Wisconsin
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Trying to prevent the P2 from getting stronger is very likely a fools errand imo. Making certain the Big 12 survives, and survives as the clear #3 are the foremost objectives
Ideally this path of P5 to P3 would have been a step change. Reconfiguration as much as realignment.
IMO the wisdom is that the ACC GOR is not for perpetuity. If it doesn’t get marginalized now, it will as soon as its GOR is closer to expiring.
The question is will the ACC first marginalize the Big 12? If this February ESPN locks in on 17 ACC schools at $30 to $40 million through 2036, with continued loss of cable subscribers, it will be very difficult for the Big 12 to not undergo more losses at the end of our current deal.
In that event, when the Big 12 goes to ask for more linear money, it will be cheaper for espn to move top brands to ACC and lower pay on rest of Big 12.
Kinda this, most of Congress either is from Ivy leagues or those big schools that wouldn’t be affected. There is almost zero chance of federal intervention for realignment.
Bingo. We are in a race for the bronze, and the feds aren't stepping in on any of this. It is us or the ACC, better be ready to do what it takes to make sure we are the ones left standing when it goes down.
IMO it means cooperating with P2 and networks to liquidate ACC (by taking as many ACC leftovers as possible) in exchange for being the only other conference to get auto berths.
AKA, be the “other guy” at the top. That’s a role. Being one of multiple other guys isn’t a role as much as being in the “other” level
A 3-3-2-1 plus at-large would be ideal but even a 4-4-2-1 tenable
We can’t really narrow the gap with P2, but we can widen the gap between Big 12 and everyone else
Also, we needed to gut the Big East and add the best basketball-only, then go to nearly conference-only schedule. It’s not a coincidence that the NCAA tournament and CFP deals expire at same time. The P2 and networks are coming for CBB postseason ownership imo
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If this happens we will be considered closer the G5 and the rest than the P2, imo.
Oh they will host hearings and make all kinds of publicity that they are "doing something" when its all show.
How many hearings have we seen year after year, people sit up there asking questions and making statements, while those being interviewed lie and avoid answering, and when its all said and done.... nothing happens.
It is all political theater, and I am sure if it comes to congress actually doing something about CFB and the NCAA, it will also be nothing more than that, a bunch of hot air and theater.
IF anything happens, it’ll be from states filing suit against media entities. If the money dries up and state taxpayers are on the hook for outstanding stadium bonds, there will be attempts to recoup that money through the courts. No idea whether that’s successful, but the discovery phase would be entertaining.
And that may not be far off. Cause I have no idea how Oregon State is going to fund their new stadium now that their money has fallen off.
That happens regardless, and arguably we already are. Boise State getting a better seed than ASU for example.
Moreover, worrying about the gap to the rest is better than not existing, particularly for certain Big 12 schools.
The only way to add distance is to the rest is to consolidate the best of the rest. Liquidate ACC
So do you think the ACC raids the Big 12? The only way, in my opinion, that the Big 12 ceases to exist is if they raid us and the only way for the Big 12 to “gain some ground” is to acquire FSU, Clemson, Miami, and take your pick of a 4th.
No traction will be gained by adding Pitt, Louisville, Duke, and those types of schools.
There's no way the ACC raids the Big 12. The ACC will be picked apart once it becomes $$$ feasible the closer we get to the end of their GoR. They're the only one that has the big(ish) brands that the SEC and B1G would want.... FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, etc. The ACC isn't going to be in any position to do anything to the Big 12, probably will be the opposite IMO.
Maybe the top half of each league get together to create a new conference to compete with the P2 and drop some of the dead weight? This is far fetched and the lawyers would make a lot of money off of this attempt, but with private equity getting involved, I don’t see anything as impossible.
Well that could potentially be a disaster for us
I could make an argument that we’d be in the top 16 of a combined league. Winning more and having good TV and attendance numbers certainly doesn’t hurt.
That’s why I responded how and why the Big 12 would ever cease to exist. We don’t have any brands left to leave. If anything we would just keep getting smaller and smaller media deals and be obsolete.
It’s also not a benefit to grab 4 ACC schools that aren’t brands while the brands they do have go strengthen the P2.
For the millionth time….attendance has zero bearing on realignment . None. Zip. Nada.
The following 21 states are all directly impacted by potential relegation and/or separation:
Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, West Virginia, Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma
That is a high enough number to push intervention at the Congressional and/or Judicial level for anti-trust or other reasons. Add in potential lobbying from the likes of Netflix, Amazon, Paramount, Comcast, etc., the absurdity of ESPN being the sole bidder on the recent CFP extension and the documented bullying/threats from the SEC/B10 on revenue sharing of that extension and you got plenty of support and evidence to throw out the current CFB duopoly.
