I agree Bill doesn’t have Deion’s charisma, but he has - what - 8 Super Bowl rings? I get that the college game isn’t the same as the NFL, but that’s a powerful recruiting tool: he has 8 of what every football player wants 1 of.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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I agree Bill doesn’t have Deion’s charisma, but he has - what - 8 Super Bowl rings? I get that the college game isn’t the same as the NFL, but that’s a powerful recruiting tool: he has 8 of what every football player wants 1 of.
That is plausible especially if the ACC settles with ESPN, FSU and Clemson to move the GOR expiration from 2036 to 2030 as proposed which would coincide with B12 GOR expiration in 2031. There has been talk that UNC is in favor of both, a settlement and merged ACC/B12 that would include select legacy ACC & B12 schools (not Houston, UCF, Cincy) and the engagement of new TV partners who would have access to CFP rights starting in 2031-32.
Do you seriously think Congressional reps from Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, Washington, Oregon... are going to do anything that harms the interests of the U of Georgia, U of Kentucky, U of Texas, Texas A&M, U of Florida, UCLA, Penn St., U of Washington, U of Oregon... ?
Makes very little sense to me to believe they would.
I look at that list and go:
Connecticut-doesn't care about cfb, might about UConn basketball
New York, Massachusetts- don't care about college sports
North Carolina- UNC and Duke will probably end up fine and probably even benefit, so legislators won't step in
Georgia, Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa- The biggest schools here are B10\SEC schools. Legislators will act in their interests. Florida State a potential issue but they likely have a landing spot.
Virginia-UVA likely gets big 10 invite
West Virginia- yes, against realignment, but not really for stepping in the way of business
Arizona, Utah, Colorado,, Kansas,- might step up against realignment as they're primarily big 12 schools
California, Oregon, Washington- will side with the PAC schools that went big 10
So very quickly you're down to like 5 states that might actually be on the right side and care enough to push the issue
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You are right. But what attendance does do is show fan support overall.
Does it matter to the media people? No. But it is a way to judge how a fanbase cares about the team. Rarely you will find a team that has great viewership, but an empty stadium, and the opposite it also true.
Its just part of overall image of the program, not so much that attendance matters to the media. It would be really hard to have an impressive brand worth picking up if their own fans wont show up.
How would those schools be harmed by Congressional or Judicial intervention? They would make more money with rights aggregation along with reduced costs for travel.
Plus, nobody likes the existing super conferences except ESPN and Fox. When you have the likes of Indiana being able to get 11 wins while beating only one team with a winning record, you have BYU and CU get hosed out of the CCG due to scheduling tiebreakers, ACC, B10 and B12 VB/BB teams needlessly traveling cross-country for conference games, the existing model is laughingly effed up.
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This is not coming from a place of disagreement. I'm curious, what specifically, do you expect to be done, at the federal level?
You talk about anti-trust charges, but what is the practice that you feel is in violation, and what do you expect the outcome to be?
The Supreme Court already weighed in on some of this in the 80's, when they allowed conferences to negotiate their own TV rights, so bringing media deals all under one umbrella seems like a non-starter, unless everyone chooses to. Other sports leagues are able to sign exclusivity deals for broadcast rights. What makes college sports legally different than those other leagues?
Even more important, most of their constituents and voters align with those schools
We’ve been financially relegating schools for decades without intervention. We even had the D1 split into two divisions without federal intervention
And good luck garnering enough support (whilst being the minority) when the Big 12 and ACC schools will be making more than ever before and better access to CFP/CFP equivalent than historical
Aggregation of TV rights and having them bid out in strategic packages NFL-style would not be in violation of the 1984 Supreme Court ruling.
And the existing ESPN/Fox duopoly along with their manipulation of conferences and selected relegation of schools (with more coming) is both unique and destructive when compared to other high dollar sports properties (NFL, NBA, MLB). There are multiple compelling legal arguments to break up that duopoly when it can be proven that millions of revenue dollars are being foregone with the existing duopoly.
Totally agree that he has the Super Bowl Rings and that is a powerful recruiting tool. I just question his staying power. Deion has a son that played, so he is very in touch with the mind of a college football player. Bill has a 24 year old honey.
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Sorry but none of this is ever going to happen. You're living in a dreamland.
There has been nothing that compares to what happened to Oregon St and Washington St in terms of the amount of immediate financial damage to those schools (over $20M annually). And the looming prospect of 25 to 30 more schools facing similar financial damage is also unprecedented and the damage goes far beyond ADs losing those revenue streams, it also has profound negative impacts to enrollment, admissions and donorship.
And your last paragraph is dead wrong beginning in 2032 if ESPN and Fox have their way.
Sorry you're wrong. The existing duopoly will not be in existence beyond 2031.
Bill's in his 70s - of course he doesn't have a ton of staying power. He's only doing this because he feels like he has something to prove after every NFL team snubbed him last season. Can he be successful? Of course. Will he be around long enough to be successful? Well, the transfer portal will help. But he's not going to be there for 10 years because at that point he'll be in his 80s.
IMO we’re in the stage of realignment in which moves are at macro or structural level.
Removing a horizontal conference gains as much traction as any move, even if that means the schools you listed- it frees up CFP money, CFP berths, linear spots, etc. The P2 will eat a lot of that, but not all, and it helps stabilize the Big 12 and puts ground between us and the rest.
Regardless of additions the Big 12 is unlikely to gain material ground in revenue without a new linear provider entering the market. There are not enough premium TV windows left after P2 to allow for the 3rd to be anything but very distant. And with only Fox and ESPN bidding, it’s not a competitive market. Ask the PAC10
As for ACC poaching Big 12, if ESPN becomes locked in through 2036 on 17 ACC schools at $30 to $40 million, what kind of offer do you think the Big 12 gets from ESPN at the end of this current deal?
Several Big 12 schools would jump ship to make more and stay on linear, with ESPN picking up the gutted Likely the 4 former PAC, plus KU to join basketball blue bloods.
You can keep using chat GTP and using big words but it’s not going to happen. I will happily eat crow if it does but it will not happen.
In America, you are only worth what someone is willing to pay you.
That’s a thoughtful response and I agree with most of what you said. I do believe we have raised our profile enough to get a seat at whatever table is next. (Not super league obviously). Surely giving us more options than in 2010.
USC and Miami are the only ones I can think of than habe fans who don’t show up but get numbers.
