Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[davegilbertson]

Wake me up when it's over. Not going to lose any sleep over this. Will still pay attention, but hard to drum up care for new conference opponents while dreaming of hopeful new non-geographic opponents.

 

[exCYtable]

At least Iowa will have to play some real competition in the Big 10 West now and they fall even further down the pecking order in their own conference.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Nah I read it right. In a weird scenario where the Big12 and Pac12 merge and then a new higher and lower tier is created, we’re not in the top half.

Good thing a merger where some teams get booted (however that would shake out) wouldn't just be the top half, which is 11 schools. At worst it would be 12 schools and far more likely to be 16 or 14.

Start with 22 assuming the B1G doesn't take anyone else, which already seems unlikely. If the B1G takes some schools then Iowa State making any "cut" gets even easier.

WVU, Cincy, and UCF are easy drops right off the bat for geography and because their value is not so much higher than other options to make up for geography.

Washington State and Oregon State are clearly the next least valuable teams in terms of media rights.

That's already 17 and you only need to cut 1 or 3 from this list:

Washington
Oregon
Stanford
Cal
Utah
BYU
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

The Pac-12 coastal schools would probably wanna cut BYU, if not both BYU and Baylor plus one more.

Iowa State is also more valuable than Kansas State and likely more valuable than Houston. Houston would be a much easier drop as well since they aren't here yet.

Drop BYU or BYU, Baylor, and K-State from the above list and you have a merged conference that can pitch itself as the only conference home for schools west of the Mississippi - until it needs to pick up the remnants of the ACC.

 

[isucy86]

I agree, that is why the b10 will keep Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal on HOLD for now. Look if they really wanted to take those schools, why not just add them with USC and UCLA, take all six now and be done with it. Because they want ND and I think would rather have UNC and UV, then maybe Oregon and Washington.

That is why the Big 12 needs to go after those schools now, try and convince them that the door is closing, they can either wait for a B10 offer that may or may not be there in the future or join the Big 12 now and ensure that they survive this mess. If they still refuse, then start talking to CU, Utah and the Arizonia schools, hoping that just talking to them destabilizes enough that it forces those schools to move.

The Big 12 has tried the sit back and see what happens game and we have lost every time, now is the time to be proactive and go after the best in Pac 12, the worst they can say is "No", then go after the other schools like CU that will jump.

I think they would take take risk. As much as the Big12 could posture they join now or be left out, they are probably comfortable that if a Big10 bid doesn't come then the Big12 would take them at any point down the line.

I have a tough time believing the Big10 is done. USC & UCLA are isolated from the rest of the Big10 territory. Far different than OU & Texas which are in SEC territory.

If the Big10 isn't done, I'd be surprised if the SEC is done.

 

[JM4CY]

That's already 17 and you only need to cut 1 or 3 from this list:

Washington
Oregon
Stanford
Cal
Utah
BYU
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor - gets cut
Houston
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

solved your problem.

 

[isucy86]

I’m trying to imagine who in LA is going to get up for a 9am kickoff between Indiana and Michigan State. This really makes no sense from a market standpoint.

Someone who likes to bet!

By just joining the Big10, those Pac12 teams will be more valuable than as individual brands. It's like the old real estate premise- "It's nice to have the least nice house in a nice neighborhood". The Big10 is smart- they will play former Pac12 teams during times when it can maximize both teams viewership.

 

[CySmurf]

The B1G's moves thus far have been focused on large TV markets or historic programs. With that in mind, I wonder if the next targets for them may be

Washington : Seattle
Cal or Stanford but not both : Bay area
Arizona or ASU but not both : AZ
Colorado : Denver

This would take them to 20, secure the largest markets in the country and make them a national brand. It also gives USC and UCLA logical travel partners.

I left Oregon out of the equation because of TV sets and they really are not historic if you go back more than 15 years or so. Oregon doesn't seem to do much to move the bottom line up. If they do add Oregeon, then maybe look for look for 1 or 3 more additions: KU, NC, and a powerhouse from the Southeast. Really sucks to type one of those.

The B1G could surround the SEC if it really wanted to.

H

Phil Knight/Nike money would make Oregon enticing though.

 

[CascadeClone]

2036. That is the final deadline for the ACC. It could fall apart sooner, but right now ESPN is happy to have that conference under a network friendly contract for another 14 years.

Oh, I would be completely down for that. The only problem is the greed at the tops of the Big 10 and SEC who won't want to split the pie any more than they absolutely have to. But that will result in teams that aren't used to losing seeing some rough years, because at the end of the day, somebody has to lose those games.

If you are the ACC, would you try to add some or all of the Big12 in order to force a renegotiation of tv contract? Since ND wont play ball.
Or maybe try to align with the Big12 and Pac12 remnants to make a 36 team natiinwide conference with 4 divisions?

Otherwise you know you are next to be poached.

 

[Stormin]

Phil Knight/Nike money would make Oregon enticing though.

That money flows to Oregon. Who else in the PAC 12 benefits? T Boone Pickens finances OK State. That money doesn’t flow to Iowa State.

 

[Drew0311]

That money flows to Oregon. Who else in the PAC 12 benefits? T Boone Pickens finances OK State. That money doesn’t flow to Iowa State.

Totally agree. Phil Knight does nothing for the Pac 12. He does stuff for Oregon.

 

[nfrine]

Calling my shot. Iowa blocked Stanford into Big10.

Correct. It's a band issue.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Incorrect. Morningside (NAIA) is 0.950 over that span, with three NAIA national championships.

Oops! They must have meant NCAA programs. Nice catch!

 

[Allikat]

Football attendance of key teams not currently committed to the SEC or BIG.

18 Florida State 74,292 93%
21 Iowa 66,938 95%
22 Washington 65,781 94%
25 Va Tech 61,562 94%
29 Texas Tech 56,924 94%
31 West Va 56,640 94%
32 BYU 56,597 89%
33 NC State 56,517 98%
34 Oregon 56,275 104%
35 Miami 55,760 86%
36 Okie State 55,240 97%
37 Iowa State 55,042 89%
38 Kansas State 51,828 104%
39 Arizona State 51,504 80%
40 Louisville 50,503 92%
41 North Carolina 49,650 79%
42 Arizona 47,691 89%
43 Ga Tech 47,340 86%
44 Utah 46,344 101%
45 Stanford 45,432 91%
47 Baylor 44,775 99%
48 TCU 44,720 99%
49 California 44,505 71%
51 Colorado 43,328 86%
53 Pitt 42,706 62%
57 East Carolina 40,361 81%
58 Virginia 40,327 65%
60 Oregon State 37,168 86%
63 UCF 64,814 79%
68 Houston 32,733 82%
71 Cincy 31.695 79%
73 Wash State 30,789 94%
80 Kansas 26,650 53%

I recognize that the ACC GOR is a blocker but I chase Wash, Oregon, Va Tech and Miami.

If we need to start with Wash, Oregon, AZ and ASU, I am okay with that.

If the BIG takes Wash and Oregon, I think we are fine just brining in the AZ schools and wait on the ACC.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Stanford can not move to the B1G. Iowa fans do not like their band.

In Mike Hlas’ Gazette column today about the B1G developments, he brought up the Stanford band. It was sarcastic - I think? - but Iowa fans just will. Not. Let. That. Go.

 

[Statefan10]

At least Iowa will have to play some real competition in the Big 10 West now and they fall even further down the pecking order in their own conference.

I don’t think there are going to be divisions anymore at least not how they are currently. Iowa realistically just made their last title game. As an Iowa State fan that doesn’t make me sad or anything but my college fandom takes a hit knowing that teams like Iowa will be just playing spoiler to the big boys from here on out.

 

[BCClone]

Football attendance of key teams not currently committed to the SEC or BIG.

18 Florida State 74,292 93%
21 Iowa 66,938 95%
22 Washington 65,781 94%
25 Va Tech 61,562 94%
29 Texas Tech 56,924 94%
31 West Va 56,640 94%
32 BYU 56,597 89%
33 NC State 56,517 98%
34 Oregon 56,275 104%
35 Miami 55,760 86%
36 Okie State 55,240 97%
37 Iowa State 55,042 89%
38 Kansas State 51,828 104%
39 Arizona State 51,504 80%
40 Louisville 50,503 92%
41 North Carolina 49,650 79%
42 Arizona 47,691 89%
43 Ga Tech 47,340 86%
44 Utah 46,344 101%
45 Stanford 45,432 91%
47 Baylor 44,775 99%
48 TCU 44,720 99%
49 California 44,505 71%
51 Colorado 43,328 86%
53 Pitt 42,706 62%
57 East Carolina 40,361 81%
58 Virginia 40,327 65%
60 Oregon State 37,168 86%
63 UCF 64,814 79%
68 Houston 32,733 82%
71 Cincy 31.695 79%
73 Wash State 30,789 94%
80 Kansas 26,650 53%

I recognize that the ACC GOR is a blocker but I chase Wash, Oregon, Va Tech and Miami.

If we need to start with Wash, Oregon, AZ and ASU, I am okay with that.

If the BIG takes Wash and Oregon, I think we are fine just brining in the AZ schools and wait on the ACC.

ISU Led Big 12 in Percentage Capacity During 2021 Football Season

Iowa State ranked 6th nationally in stadium capacity filled percentage, averaging an attendance of 98.7% of Jack Trice’s capacity. That is also the highest percentage of capacity in the Big 12, followed by Baylor who ranked 9th nationally with 98.1%. It’s a well-known fact that Ames, Iowa, is...

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

Where did you get your numbers? We were over 60k last year and have been over 57 since the SEZ.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Just getting caught up on all this. One thing that I really think people are missing is the geographic diversity is actually by design. I actually think the Big Ten will end up grabbing at least two more West Coast teams, because they're actually using the geographic diversity to strengthen their TV offers.

I agree with this, FWIW. It makes very little sense for the B1G to only have two schools along the West Coast; just logistically you’d think you’d want at least four to help with scheduling/inventory.

On the other hand, adding Rutgers never made sense either. (Well, except for putting the BTN on NY cable systems. Times were different then.)

 

[KidSilverhair]

What do you suggest we do? Add Temple and UConn?

But UConn is in ESPN’s backyard! Think of the Bristol/Hartford media market!

 

[Yaz]

 

[BryceC]

In Mike Hlas’ Gazette column today about the B1G developments, he brought up the Stanford band. It was sarcastic - I think? - but Iowa fans just will. Not. Let. That. Go.

I think it's hilarious that they call us crybabies but then something happens like the Stanford band and it's locked in their collective psyche for a generation. Like that was the worst thing that happened that day, not being down 35-0 at half.