Not going to hold my breath on further realignment. My bet is schools could be posturing to fill the power vacuum left with USC/UCLA leaving. I am sure schools like ASU and Utah don't want to automatically turn the bully pulpit over to Oregon & Washington.
A unique aspect of any Big12/Pac12 realignment is that each conference's media rights values are pretty close. This isn't like UT/OU or USC/UCLA's recent moves for $25M+ more per year.
Sure an 18-20 team conference could seem unwieldy, but the key would be creating a handful of annual rival games and then cycle through the other 12-14 teams home/road games over a 6-8 year period.
Creating a One Conference vibe could be achieved by not going with a 2 year cycle, but play group A years 1&4, group B years 2 & 5, etc.
The Big12 & Pac12 could view an 18-20 team conference as a way to expand both conference core audience. Aka I would be more likely as a Big12 fan to watch Arizona or Washington if I need ISU played them.
Here is the thing though.
What is being reported....the offer on the table is 25M per school, Big 12 deal is about 32M per. (just media portion)
So we are at 7M above right now.
Next, Wash and Oreg, have been reported for Months to be wanting unequal share. That means the 4 corners would be even lower than the 25M if they did. So lets say 5M less per, just as a guess. Could be more or less for some. That puts them at 12M below.
Then you have the elevator clause in the Big 12 that if we add more schools in the west/new time zone, it will increase our deal or allow for an additional partner. This could also be a draw for these schools knowing that if they come it would increase our deal from say 32M per to say 37M+ per(complete guess as to how much). At an additional 5M per for the increase that would then put it at 17M increase over their deal on the Table in the PAC.
Something you have to think about for ESPN this would be a big benefit get 4-6 teams for the content they want for less than the 25M offered to the PAC(with Amazon), with possibly better matchups.
Yes this is all completely hypothetical, but one could see how the payout in the Big 12 COULD (stress could) quickly become a huge increase pretty quickly. This does not even take into account the stability of the conference with some teams publicly wanting out, not wanting to sign a GOR, and pushing for unequal revenue. These things will all tear them apart on top of the money as well.
Then you have to also take the Money they probably have to repay for the overpayment for the Pac net. Every bit of increase may become pretty important depending on how that shakes out.
