Deaths have increased a little bit in Spain. I'd call it more of a ripple than a wave. They have not really increased in France. In my opinion, a true "second wave" is highly unlikely. It will never be as bad as the first time around. We may see an uptick in fall/winter in places that haven't been hit that hard, but not an overwhelming wave. The metric people need to start paying attention to is the baseline for all-cause mortality. Are we above it? Below it? How much above it? For instance, if the U.S. is experiencing, 100 deaths/day from Covid19, but the all-cause deaths on a week-to-week basis are not above the excess deaths threshold, then we aren't really in an epidemic any more.
It appears we may actually may have entered below the threshold last week, but the CDC seems to take a week or two to get their chart fully updated.
It is pretty interesting and informative looking at these charts for other countries as well.
It'll be interesting to see what next year looks like as covid19 has eliminated a large number of the susceptible population that would have likely died over the next 12-24 months regardless. For example, 2018 saw higher than normal deaths (maybe a bad flu season?) followed by a lower than normal 2019.
Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov
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www.cnbc.com
