***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***

[3GenClone]

Texas will have to give up the Longhorn Network to join the Big10 or SEC. Giving up the LHN is easy, being asked to give up the cash is the hard part. In the end they won't have to, a buy would be negotiated.

According to reports, ESPN has lost close to $50M since launching the Network about 5 years ago. Earlier this spring ESPN discontinued the daily studio shows on the Network. ESPN claims to still be supportive of the Longhorn Network, but they are obviously looking to cut costs. My bet is ESPN gives the LHN 3-4 more years to become profitable. At that point, ESPN will be 10 years into their 20 year contract and still owe UT something like $175M. The smart business decision for ESPN, approach UT and offer a $100-$125M CASH BUYOUT.

GOLD MINE for Texas, they get a big wagon of cash and they are free to jump to the Big10 or SEC if their TV rights deals are significantly better than the Big12.

I disagre. The Longhorn Network has other strings attached, such as that ESPN retains those rights should the Big 12 fold:
http://thebiglead.com/2011/08/08/lo...s-and-espn-revealed-big-12-future-not-bright/

If Texas leaves the Big 12, the school must keep the terms of the present agreement, provide ESPN an exclusive 60-day window to negotiate for the other rights and allow ESPN a 48-hour window to match any offer. A prohibition on licensing content to third parties, prevents Texas from participation in a potential Big XII network, scuttling that carrot if it was ever going to arise.

There is no way ESPN is going to allow Texas to buy their way out of the contract to join the Big 10 Network, which is a partnership with FOX broadcasting. Maybe ESPN would let them out of the deal if Texas joined the SEC or even the ACC, which have ESPN affiliation for those third-tier rights, so ESPN doesn't really lose much in the long-run.

 

[jbhtexas]

Houston calls Memphis' three fortune 500 companies (FedEx, International Paper Co., and Autozone), and raises them 26 Fortune 500 companies!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_in_Houston

Yeah...I really don't like any of these candidates, but I don't really get the hate for Houston compared to Memphis or Cinci. I would guess the TV partners are probably going to the like Houston because the TX population is growing so fast. I posted this yesterday in another thread:

It’s not just that people are moving from one Texas city to another; rather, they’re moving from other states to Texas. Last year, nearly half a million people moved to Texas, according to Census Bureau data released in March. What’s more, the four largest metro areas in the state — Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio — “together added more people last year than any state in the country except for Texas as a whole,” the Census Bureau notes.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-11-fastest-growing-cities-in-america-2016-05-19

 

[isucy86]

There entire athletic budget is almost $200 million. LHN money is pocket change

Maybe LHN money is pocket change for you, but it isn't for UT.

- If $15-$20M was meaningless to UT we wouldn't be having the whole realignment conversation.
- UT has decided to sell beer at sporting events and will earn a profit only a fraction of the LHN income.

 

[Clonehomer]

Houston calls Memphis' three fortune 500 companies (FedEx, International Paper Co., and Autozone), and raises them 26 Fortune 500 companies!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_in_Houston

How many of those 26 were founded by Houston alums and major donors? The reason FedEx is brought up because their CEO has publicly stated that they will support any conference that takes Memphis.

 

[surly]

Memphis is a nasty town. The team doesn't have a stadium. Academics are so bad, they're unranked.

 

[HoopsTournament]

I disagree with that because if we do that we just create more competition for a limited number of spots in 2025 if the Big XII blows up. Right now there are 64 P5 schools plus Notre Dame. So if the four 16 team conference thing happens only one school will be left out. Give a couple more schools P5 money and legitimacy and ISU's argument for inclusion in the next go round gets weaker.

Notre Dame is not joining a conference. Not now. Not ever.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

Have we blown up the Pac 12 yet?

 

[aeroclone]

Memphis is a nasty town. The team doesn't have a stadium. Academics are so bad, they're unranked.

Some truth here. I actually passed on a job offer there solely based on the town. Even the nicer areas didn't seem like the greatest place to live.

 

[surly]

Have we blown up the Pac 12 yet?

http://twitter.com/RedSeaTrolls1/status/761266535948177408/photo/1

 

[Clonehomer]

http://twitter.com/RedSeaTrolls1/status/761266535948177408/photo/1

A 16 team merger can't happen until 2024 at the earliest. The Big12 would need 8 teams to leave to dissolve (> 75%). The PAC12 would need 9 teams to leave to dissolve. So neither league could absorb a portion of the other and both won't vote to dissolve to create a merger.

The only way a merger would happen is with a 22 or a 24 team league by adding two more.

Also, both leagues have a GOR so the PAC12 would have to agree for Arizona and Arizona State to leave. Why would they do that?

 

[cygrads]

How about we kick Texas and OU out and bring back all the schools Texas pissed off. Bring back Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M to get us back to 12 and we are all happy.

 

[tsirnickesqcy]

I found this intriguing/amusing

SB Nation: Tracking every school that’s ever wanted to join Big 12

That is very interesting. Especially when you click on the link to BYU's newspaper. Really gives a fascinating look at how forward thinking the Big 8 was back then. Really ahead of its time. Where did that mindset go?

 

[tsirnickesqcy]

Well you know West Virginia is campaigning hard for a neighbor, so I feel like we're most likely headed for "The Big 14." If Memphis is in, then UConn & Colorado State are the first out. Obviously concerned more with football competition than academics. Makes sense.


Houston is a "strike while the iron is hot" scenario. They could really blow up with a Big 12 add, because it'll be much easier for them to hold on to Tom Herman. If I'm with the networks, that's who I'm pushing for; especially if they have Texas & Tech's endorsement.

With the distance between BYU & WVU, look for an east-west split:

BAYLOR
ISU
KU
KSU
TCU
WVU

BYU
HOUSTON
OU
OSU
TEXAS
TECH

Rivalries preserved. My hope is that we can go back to an 8 conference game slate to free up one more out of conference matchup.

No way Memphis gets in. I really think Colorado State is a dark horse here. Too similar to a lot of the schools already in the conference to look past.

 

[acgclone]

No way Memphis gets in. I really think Colorado State is a dark horse here. Too similar to a lot of the schools already in the conference to look past.

CSU brings nothing but Northern Colorado.

They would water the conference down worse than Memphis or Houston as far as TV goes.

 

[cyman05]

I don't understand how the admins went from "rumors of our demise have been greatly exaggerated" and super optimistic about the conference in the may meetings to all this news about diluting the conference through a money grab and Texas and Oklahoma not willing to sign a grant of rights because they will look at leaving in 7 years. I will say the thing that annoys me is writers predicting schools like you and buy going to the PAC one day...they will never admit a religious school.

 

[Beyerball]

To those who post that Texas might buyout LHN contract to JOIN the BIG..lol. That's the most idiotic thing I've maybe ever read. What makes me think Texas isn't going anywhere anytime soon is the fact that the LHN is tiered..It actually pays out more toward the end of the contract..beginning was $10 mil a year...last 5 years or so Texas makes $20 mil a year. Texas ain't letting that thing go anytime soon...Therefore Texas simply can't and won't join the Big prior to 2030 or the PAC or ACC for that matter..Texas will never go to the SEC..ever.

 

[Rods79]

I don't understand how the admins went from "rumors of our demise have been greatly exaggerated" and super optimistic about the conference in the may meetings to all this news about diluting the conference through a money grab and Texas and Oklahoma not willing to sign a grant of rights because they will look at leaving in 7 years. I will say the thing that annoys me is writers predicting schools like you and buy going to the PAC one day...they will never admit a religious school.

There are only a select few writers you can listen to on this. Don't read any of the popular generalist writers' "dream scenarios"...that is the first sign you're reading in the echo chamber. Very few of these people do much research on the situation, they don't have time to...in their mind Baylor/BYU have had success, people know them, they're not altogether disposable...they certainly can't be left of a super conference. So they have to go somewhere...well...PAC it is! It is like someone picking all chalk on an NCAA tourney bracket and writing up their analysis.

Devil's advocate, they are probably banking on super conferences occurring and all of these unfortunate "rules" going out the window as the PAC and ACC desperately try to fill their empty rosters up to 16. This is starting on a shaky basis of assumption though. If super conferences do happen, you're going to have a lot more to worry about than where a religious school lands.

 

[Al_4_State]

i wouldn't argue that's it's rational for them to want leave, but it doesn't take long to get that sentiment after reading/listening to their fans. Maybe the networks have a model where they'll make more money with four power conferences rather than five and there's pressure from that end.

The networks are the only reason we DONT have 4 X 16

 

[Redman97]

The networks are the only reason we DONT have 4 X 16

I don't get it. Can you say more? From my perspective, it seems like things would be a lot different and more in our favor if it weren't for media money. Schools would want to associate by geography, and academic and cultural similarity. Media markets are what's taking that away, it seems to me. If it weren't for the benefit to Iowa State, I'd want nothing to do with Texas schools.

 

[cyclones500]

Hadn't seen this linked yet in the thread:

5 industry sources weigh in on top Big 12 candidates

Headline also says "Fox not thrilled with expansion talk," which seems to contradict recent things I've read that had contradicted reports that Fox it isn't pleased. Conflicting details about Big 12 — can you imagine?!