***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***

[BCoffClone]

If the GOR is off the table, I still think it's in ISU's best interest to expand now. Grab a couple of teams that have a chance to build their programs significantly with P5 money (much like what TCU has done in the Big XII) and hope that everyone feels more confident in the future of the league a few years down the road.

If you were UT or OU, why would you want to extend the GOR now if you don't know how new teams will perform in the conference or what future media consumption will look like in 5 years? If you told somebody in 2008 that the NFL would be broadcasting a game on Twitter in 2016 they would have thought
you were crazy. The way people watch college football games in the future is bound to change in the next few years.

 

[CYCLNST8]

Chip Brown (aka The Cow's Mouthpiece) seems to be saying Houston is in. Now it's down to BYU or Cincinnati for the 2 spot.

Also says if it goes to 4 that Memphis is in.

....but who knows. This is on the Twitter. Interview with a BYU show

Well you know West Virginia is campaigning hard for a neighbor, so I feel like we're most likely headed for "The Big 14." If Memphis is in, then UConn & Colorado State are the first out. Obviously concerned more with football competition than academics. Makes sense.

Just don't see Memphis making the cut of the 4 possible teams.

And nothing will happen without an extension of the GOR. IMO, Texas and OU will agree to extend the GOR for a few years. IMO, the networks will insist on BYU as one of the teams. Plus BYU does not have to deal with a conference concerning their football rights. B12 has said that location is less of a factor than one thinks. So pencil in BYU.

Second team is likely to be Cinci. Travel partner with WVU. Decent programs with decent academics. Puts a team in the B12 that is located between B10 and SEC territory.

B12 probably only adds the two teams. Networks do not want to dilute things too much. Only adding those two teams does not really change things a lot.

Divisions could be a little tricky. Oklahoma and Texas want to play each other every year. And that is the heavyweight matchup the networks want. So you must have a guaranteed rivalry game with Texas for OU or put them in the same division.

The B10 was faced with this dilemma and has a weak division and a stronger division. It actually has seemed to help them because the weak division ends up inflating the reccords of those traditionally weak teams. SEC has the same issue. One weak division and one strong division. So let's assume the B12 takes the same path.

That would mean BYU and Cinci would join existing schools WVU, Iowa State and the 2 Kansas schools in one division. If you want to even out the divisions for strength, then flip the Kansas schools with the Oklahoma schools and guarantee a rivalry game between Oklahoma and Texas every year. That would probably be better for competition.

Just don't see B12 taking more than 2 schools. And I see Texas pushing Houston as more of a CYA type of sticking up for a Texas school. It is possible that Houston could be added instead of Cinci. But that leaves WVU as an outlier, with no travel partner.

Houston is a "strike while the iron is hot" scenario. They could really blow up with a Big 12 add, because it'll be much easier for them to hold on to Tom Herman. If I'm with the networks, that's who I'm pushing for; especially if they have Texas & Tech's endorsement.

With the distance between BYU & WVU, look for an east-west split:

BAYLOR
ISU
KU
KSU
TCU
WVU

BYU
HOUSTON
OU
OSU
TEXAS
TECH

Rivalries preserved. My hope is that we can go back to an 8 conference game slate to free up one more out of conference matchup.

 

[HFCS]

This Houston crap is annoying me. I should have known when we finally did make a move that it would be a stupid one. Just add BYU/Cincy who water down the league the least while giving us branding benefit of 12 and CCG/divisions and be done with it.

Houston being added is one step closer to replicating an already failed SWC, might as well add Rice and SMU while we're at it.

 

[Judoka]

If the GOR is off the table, I still think it's in ISU's best interest to expand now. Grab a couple of teams that have a chance to build their programs significantly with P5 money (much like what TCU has done in the Big XII) and hope that everyone feels more confident in the future of the league a few years down the road.

If you were UT or OU, why would you want to extend the GOR now if you don't know how new teams will perform in the conference or what future media consumption will look like in 5 years? If you told somebody in 2008 that the NFL would be broadcasting a game on Twitter in 2016 they would have thought
you were crazy. The way people watch college football games in the future is bound to change in the next few years.

I disagree with that because if we do that we just create more competition for a limited number of spots in 2025 if the Big XII blows up. Right now there are 64 P5 schools plus Notre Dame. So if the four 16 team conference thing happens only one school will be left out. Give a couple more schools P5 money and legitimacy and ISU's argument for inclusion in the next go round gets weaker.

 

[cc1091]

Since the Big 8 added much of the defunct SWC and became the Big12, I have been waiting for the same market forces that made the SWC a dead conference to come the B12.

Because I doubt that I am the only person who had this fear, I would be very surprised if Iowa State (and perhaps some other former Big 8 members) did not have some sort of plan.

Interesting how the B1G stopped expansion at 14.

 

[Redman97]

I disagree with that because if we do that we just create more competition for a limited number of spots in 2025 if the Big XII blows up. Right now there are 64 P5 schools plus Notre Dame. So if the four 16 team conference thing happens only one school will be left out. Give a couple more schools P5 money and legitimacy and ISU's argument for inclusion in the next go round gets weaker.

Right, no GOR extension means OU/UT want to leave from what I've read. Fewer teams "in the club" is better.

 

[Stormin]

Right, no GOR extension means OU/UT want to leave from what I've read. Fewer teams "in the club" is better.

So OU/UT want to leave? Based on what? Don't think that OU/UT want to leave a conference where they are the unquestioned kings for a conference where they will not be kings. And their paths to a Football NC becomes much more difficult. UT would have to give up their LHN to leave. Do you honestly think they will leave their sweetheart deal that goes through 2030 and the $15 million per year they get from it? No way.

More likely scenario is that other schools insist on a GOR to match up with Texas LHN deal. Inclusion of Houston could be a bargaining chip. But does Texas really want Houston in the B12?

 

[CYCLNST8]

This Houston crap is annoying me. I should have known when we finally did make a move that it would be a stupid one. Just add BYU/Cincy who water down the league the least while giving us branding benefit of 12 and CCG/divisions and be done with it.

Houston being added is one step closer to replicating an already failed SWC, might as well add Rice and SMU while we're at it.

I know West Virginia deserves a travel partner, but consider who has more potential. Trying to lock down the state of Texas by pumping up Houston isn't the worst idea ever. Fighting the Buckeye state is a much tougher task.

 

[KnappShack]

So OU/UT want to leave? Based on what? Don't think that OU/UT want to leave a conference where they are the unquestioned kings for a conference where they will not be kings. And their paths to a Football NC becomes much more difficult. UT would have to give up their LHN to leave. Do you honestly think they will leave their sweetheart deal that goes through 2030 and the $15 million per year they get from it? No way.

More likely scenario is that other schools insist on a GOR to match up with Texas LHN deal. Inclusion of Houston could be a bargaining chip. But does Texas really want Houston in the B12?

I have to imagine there's some posturing and horse trading going on behind the scenes. The Cows and Sooners say they don't want a GOR extension and the conference will add teams to cash in. TV partners say "whoa! Let's pay you 10 or 12 schools SEC money to stay where you are, but only with a GOR extension"

But anything is possible

 

[surly]

Adding UH only creates another TCU. Why people want that is beyond me. Maybe ISU doesn't recruit Texas. There is nothing favoring our schools that comes from adding another in Texas.

 

[Redman97]

So OU/UT want to leave? Based on what? Don't think that OU/UT want to leave a conference where they are the unquestioned kings for a conference where they will not be kings. And their paths to a Football NC becomes much more difficult. UT would have to give up their LHN to leave. Do you honestly think they will leave their sweetheart deal that goes through 2030 and the $15 million per year they get from it? No way.

More likely scenario is that other schools insist on a GOR to match up with Texas LHN deal. Inclusion of Houston could be a bargaining chip. But does Texas really want Houston in the B12?

i wouldn't argue that's it's rational for them to want leave, but it doesn't take long to get that sentiment after reading/listening to their fans. Maybe the networks have a model where they'll make more money with four power conferences rather than five and there's pressure from that end.

 

[CYCLNST8]

i wouldn't argue that's it's rational for them to want leave, but it doesn't take long to get that sentiment after reading/listening to their fans. Maybe the networks have a model where they'll make more money with four power conferences rather than five and there's pressure from that end.

Status quo & keeping up with the Joneses. They don't like seeing other conferences making more money. They're nervous about the next round of negotiations and want to keep their options open. Adding teams at this point is an extra cash grab if they plan on leaving. Don't leave money on the table.

 

[isucy86]

When the Big12 announced it was exploring expansion, I was firmly in the no GOR extension, no expansion. A GOR extension would mean stability for the Big12 and requiring it is the main leverage that schools like KU, KSU and Iowa State have in expansion talk.

However, if I am Texas or Oklahoma, I would not want to tie myself to an extended GOR as there is alot of uncertainty what the TV rights model will look like in 2024. Sure UT & OU have a great thing today by playing in the Big12, but what if the Big10 or SEC TV packages are worth $20M more/school annually starting in 2025? If I am OU or UT, the only way I extend my GOR is if ESPN or FOX is willing to extend their TV rights package to the Big12. So, the short of it, a GOR extension is unrealistic.

IMO, even without a GOR extension, expansion still is in the Big12's best interest. The TV consultants have said 12 teams improves the Big12 of earning a playoff berth. If I am Iowa State, I would change the schools I would consider without a GOR. I would be looking at schools I would want to partner with 2025 and beyond- I would prefer schools like Cincy, Memphis or CSU vs. BYU, Houston UConn or Central Florida, etc.

 

[CYCLNST8]

When the Big12 announced it was exploring expansion, I was firmly in the no GOR extension, no expansion. A GOR extension would mean stability for the Big12 and requiring it is the main leverage that schools like KU, KSU and Iowa State have in expansion talk.

However, if I am Texas or Oklahoma, I would not want to tie myself to an extended GOR as there is alot of uncertainty what the TV rights model will look like in 2024. Sure UT & OU have a great thing today by playing in the Big12, but what if the Big10 or SEC TV packages are worth $20M more/school annually starting in 2025? If I am OU or UT, the only way I extend my GOR is if ESPN or FOX is willing to extend their TV rights package to the Big12. So, the short of it, a GOR extension is unrealistic.

IMO, even without a GOR extension, expansion still is in the Big12's best interest. The TV consultants have said 12 teams improves the Big12 of earning a playoff berth. If I am Iowa State, I would change the schools I would consider without a GOR. I would be looking at schools I would want to partner with 2025 and beyond- I would prefer schools like Cincy, Memphis or CSU vs. BYU, Houston UConn or Central Florida, etc.

Just accept a major paycut? Hell no. Do whatever it takes to keep OU & Texas in the fold. They've already tilted the playing field to their advantage with the Sooner & Longhorn networks. The best thing our conference can do is kick ass in football over the next few years to ensure this is a conference worth paying for.

 

[surly]

If expansion comes, my first two in would be BYU and CSU, followed by UCONN and Cincinnati. I have no time for another Texas entry. And Memphis is senseless.

 

[isucy86]

UT would have to give up their LHN to leave. Do you honestly think they will leave their sweetheart deal that goes through 2030 and the $15 million per year they get from it? No way.

Texas will have to give up the Longhorn Network to join the Big10 or SEC. Giving up the LHN is easy, being asked to give up the cash is the hard part. In the end they won't have to, a buy would be negotiated.

According to reports, ESPN has lost close to $50M since launching the Network about 5 years ago. Earlier this spring ESPN discontinued the daily studio shows on the Network. ESPN claims to still be supportive of the Longhorn Network, but they are obviously looking to cut costs. My bet is ESPN gives the LHN 3-4 more years to become profitable. At that point, ESPN will be 10 years into their 20 year contract and still owe UT something like $175M. The smart business decision for ESPN, approach UT and offer a $100-$125M CASH BUYOUT.

GOLD MINE for Texas, they get a big wagon of cash and they are free to jump to the Big10 or SEC if their TV rights deals are significantly better than the Big12.

 

[CYCLNST8]

If expansion comes, my first two in would be BYU and CSU, followed by UCONN and Cincinnati. I have no time for another Texas entry. And Memphis is senseless.

I disagree.

 

[cc1091]

I see U of Cincinatti and UConn being let in.
Because the Texas schools want Houston, then we also have to take BYU.

Then the REAL horse trading begins.

 

[ripvdub]

Texas will have to give up the Longhorn Network to join the Big10 or SEC. Giving up the LHN is easy, being asked to give up the cash is the hard part. In the end they won't have to, a buy would be negotiated.

According to reports, ESPN has lost close to $50M since launching the Network about 5 years ago. Earlier this spring ESPN discontinued the daily studio shows on the Network. ESPN claims to still be supportive of the Longhorn Network, but they are obviously looking to cut costs. My bet is ESPN gives the LHN 3-4 more years to become profitable. At that point, ESPN will be 10 years into their 20 year contract and still owe UT something like $175M. The smart business decision for ESPN, approach UT and offer a $100-$125M CASH BUYOUT.

GOLD MINE for Texas, they get a big wagon of cash and they are free to jump to the Big10 or SEC if their TV rights deals are significantly better than the Big12.

There entire athletic budget is almost $200 million. LHN money is pocket change

 

[colbycheese]

I disagree.

Houston calls Memphis' three fortune 500 companies (FedEx, International Paper Co., and Autozone), and raises them 26 Fortune 500 companies!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_in_Houston