Remember, the Pacers were up 2-1 last year and lost.
What this series is showing though is that the Heat do not have anyone to match up with Hibbert. You have Chris Andersen, but he cannot create his own shot. He needs other guys to get him an open lane to make a cut. Udonis Haslem is smaller and has been pretty terrible. Then you have Battier, but he is supposed to be guarding David West, so who do you have to guard Hibbert?
If you put Battier on Hibbert, then you have to put James on David West, which makes James more susceptible to fouls. Then that leaves Paul George being guarded by Wade, who seems a half step slower.
You could put Bosh on Hibbert, but Hibbert has been turning Bosh into a jump shooter. You can live with Bosh taking 3's, what you cannot live with it is Bosh setting up shop in the post. Hibbert has done a good job pushing Bosh out of the post. Bosh has not done a good job keep Hibbert out. It appears Miami will have to guard Hibbert by committee.
Then you still have George Hill and Jeckyl and Hyde Lance Stephenson. Do you have Norris Cole and Chalmers guard them? Both Miami guards would just get overpowered by those two.
The Pacers are just a matchup nightmare for the Heat. The Heat like to play small and the Pacers like to play big. When the Heat play small they can get into the lanes easier, but due to the Pacer's size, it is hard to finish at the rim. So, if you are the Heat and you go big, you lose that speed and play into the Pacer's game plan of slowing down and mucking up the game.
Deep down, I still think the Heat win in 7, but if the Pacers can win both games at home, then I give them a 75% chance to win the series. If they split their homestand, I give them 25%. Home court advantage is a major asset this deep into the playoffs. Teams feed off the crowd more.
Lastly, Paul George is becoming a beast in this series. Danny Granger going down was probably the best thing for him. However, what would this team look like with a healthy Danny Granger? That would be an incredible team.