I know for a fact 6'10- 7ft guys dont like to chase around a bunch of wing players on defense. This can go both ways
JJeff Injury Updates
- Thread starter ForeverIowan
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Jacktronic
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Absolutely it can. But their offensive rebounding can pretty much negate their poor outside shooting if ISU can't regularly secure the defensive rebound. I imagine that is why their guy has attempted more threes than Milan despite shooting like 31%. In most games there really isn't a downside for him to jack shots even though he is making less than a third of them since there is a good chance they will retain possession or a big teammate will just turn the miss into a dunk.
Pleta staying out of foul trouble will be key. He tends to find himself in the right place on rebounds.
You're not wrong. ON the part about dragging defender out of the lane to open up more back cuts from our athletic guards, I'd love to start flashing JJ to the high post, feed him at the FT line and have him hit 15 footers, take the rack or hit cutters. That scheme would minimize his dribbling and get him in the mode of seeing the open man, where JJ is deadly.
UTenn does have decent defensive efficiency at .989 points allowed/possession (35th in the nation). However, ISU is 4th nationally in that metric at .993 pt/possession. On top of that, UTenn is a putrid 219th in the nation in turnover % coughing up TOs on 16.8% of their possessions, while ISU is 4th best in forcing TOs and best of all power 4 programs.
Beyond the stats, UTenn was hot garbage in the last 4 minutes vs UVA. They looked easily rattled in crunch time and only won because UVA was hotter garbage. If UTenn wants to make the game a rock fight, we're here for it!
While I'd love to see JJ health enough to get at least some run, we can beat UTenn without him. Might be better to give him another 2 days rest and rehab before UMich/Alabama where we'll really need him.
FWIW: I was really encouraged by Toure's aggressive takes to the rack recenlty. That spin move in the lane in the second half vs UK was a work of art! While he hit some nice threes, his driving offensive game will be more sustainable and have higher probability of success, so I'm hoping TJ and staff are scheming new ways to get Toure running down hill.
we’ll see how their bigs like the pressure. Kentucky’s were a non factor. It seemed like TJ wanted them to get the ball because it was an immediate trap and turnover.
We absolutely had this Heise and Toure for Arizona in KC and we still lost. It was our absolute A+ game as well as Arizona's absolute A+ game. It could have gone either way, which means our top game is just as good as anyone in the country.
And before you say Heise could have been more aggressive against Arizona, what would that have replaced?
Justin Jefferson was 60% on two point shots against Arizona. In St. Louis, Heise is shooting 66% on two point shots. Not a lot of different and I'd wager a lot of money that Heise driving to the bucket against Arizona would have been FAR less effective than it was against Tennessee State and Kentucky.
Heise is 5-9 from 3 in St. Louis. Jefferson was 3-7 against Arizona. Heise has been better, but against Kentucky, Heise was 1-4. There is no clear evidence indicating that Heise should have shot more 3's against Arizona.
Heise only played 23 minutes against Arizona. Maybe he should have played 36 like he did against Kentucky. Who's minutes to you reduce? Jefferson who ahd 21 points on over 50% shooting? Milan wo had 28 points? Toure who played exceptionally? Lipsey who only scored 8 points, sot terribly, but had 7 assists and 3 steals? No, absolutely not.
I have no insider information or medical training, but here are my thoughts.
If Jefferson plays, then the probabilities are 25, 5, 35, 5, 30
Roughly that equates to a 60% chance of winning without Jefferson and and 70% chance of winning with a near normal Jefferson.
- If the MRI results were good news, that likely means the risk of him making it worse are minimal. If there was a high risk of him making it worse (like a partial tear to a complete tear), then I don't think the MRI results would be good news.
- If there is a high risk of playing making it worse, then I'd bet that Jefferson is done for the whole tournament.
- If the risk of making it worse is minimal, then I believe pain management is the ONLY thing that will keep him off the court completely.
- If Jefferson suits up, then he will start and he will play. There will NOT be a situation where he suits up but only plays if we need him. That'd be asinine. Dropping him into the middle of a game when Iowa State is struggling is NOT going to help Iowa State win.
- If he can tolerate the pain and suit up, then he will start. If his mobility impacts his effectiveness (lateral quickness, can't drive and finish, can't hit a shot), then his playing time will be reduced. Maybe he only gets a couple spurts in the 1st half and 1 last spurt to start the 2nd half.
- If he plays well, then his minutes will be close to normal.
- If Tennessee protects the ball and dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State shoots normally or worse, Iowa State loses.
- If Tennessee protects the ball, dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State shoots out of their mind, Iowa State wins..
- If Tennessee turns over the ball a lot and dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State shoots normally or better, Iowa State wins
- If Tennessee turns the ball over a lot, dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State is ice cold (30% overall), Iowa State loses.
- If Tennessee turns the ball over a lot, Iowa State minimizes 2nd chance points and Tennessee shoots a normal percentage, then Iowa State wins in a blowout.
If Jefferson plays, then the probabilities are 25, 5, 35, 5, 30
Roughly that equates to a 60% chance of winning without Jefferson and and 70% chance of winning with a near normal Jefferson.
Ahhh...you're correct! His right knee is bent in...so sorry. I need to take a closer look! My bad.
demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
Turnovers and transition points will be huge on this game. Tennessee is gonna get a ton of points in the point so we will need to turn them over. That and knocking down our 3s should be the key to winning.
