JJeff Injury Updates

It has no roots, yet towers high,
It has no wings, yet fills the sky.
A bird may pierce it, a mountain reach,
But it holds no tongue and has no speech.
If you seek the truth of a thing not known,
Where the seed of doubt is freshly sown,
Look not to the earth or the heavy prayer—
For the answer, my friend, is...
Jeff Grayer?
 
Either way I can't see a world where he's anywhere near 100% regardless of that two extra days rest. Tweaking it is guaranteed. I've had multiple severe ankle sprains. They hurt for a year.
were you also in your early 20s, receiving daily treatment, multiple times a day, from D1 athletic trainers, with access to the best technology, during that entire year your ankle hurt after your severe ankle sprains?
 
I have no insider information or medical training, but here are my thoughts.

  • If the MRI results were good news, that likely means the risk of him making it worse are minimal. If there was a high risk of him making it worse (like a partial tear to a complete tear), then I don't think the MRI results would be good news.
  • If there is a high risk of playing making it worse, then I'd bet that Jefferson is done for the whole tournament.
  • If the risk of making it worse is minimal, then I believe pain management is the ONLY thing that will keep him off the court completely.
  • If Jefferson suits up, then he will start and he will play. There will NOT be a situation where he suits up but only plays if we need him. That'd be asinine. Dropping him into the middle of a game when Iowa State is struggling is NOT going to help Iowa State win.
  • If he can tolerate the pain and suit up, then he will start. If his mobility impacts his effectiveness (lateral quickness, can't drive and finish, can't hit a shot), then his playing time will be reduced. Maybe he only gets a couple spurts in the 1st half and 1 last spurt to start the 2nd half.
  • If he plays well, then his minutes will be close to normal.
Game predictions
  1. If Tennessee protects the ball and dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State shoots normally or worse, Iowa State loses.
  2. If Tennessee protects the ball, dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State shoots out of their mind, Iowa State wins..
  3. If Tennessee turns over the ball a lot and dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State shoots normally or better, Iowa State wins
  4. If Tennessee turns the ball over a lot, dominates the offensive boards and Iowa State is ice cold (30% overall), Iowa State loses.
  5. If Tennessee turns the ball over a lot, Iowa State minimizes 2nd chance points and Tennessee shoots a normal percentage, then Iowa State wins in a blowout.
If Jefferson does not play or is ineffective, the Probability of those 5 outcomes would be 35, 5, 45, 5, 10.
If Jefferson plays, then the probabilities are 25, 5, 35, 5, 30

Roughly that equates to a 60% chance of winning without Jefferson and and 70% chance of winning with a near normal Jefferson.
Tennessee is ranked #202 in turnovers at 11.7 per game.

In the tournament they’re averaging 13 per game (10 against UVA, 16 against Miami-Ohio). Neither of those teams is very good at forcing turnovers.

Turnovers have apparently been a problem in many of their losses:

 
Tennessee is ranked #202 in turnovers at 11.7 per game.

In the tournament they’re averaging 13 per game (10 against UVA, 16 against Miami-Ohio). Neither of those teams is very good at forcing turnovers.

Turnovers have apparently been a problem in many of their losses:

I watched game summaries from their home game against Alabama and both games against Kentucky today. They had a lot of similarities:
In all three games, Gillispe swished a 3 on Tennessee's opening possession
In all three games, Tennessee had a double-digit lead in the second half
And in all of the games they blew the lead and lost the game.

They really struggled on both ends of the court in crunch time. Their defense seemed to give up a lot of drives to the rim (albeit from Oweh, Aberdeen and Philon) without any help defense. And then they tended to rush and make bad decisions, commit costly turnover, etc. And their go-to in crunch time is a drive from tiny Gillispe or a 15-18ft contested jumper from Ament. While Ament can get that off over almost anyone, it is not a high percentage shot (yet).
 
I watched game summaries from their home game against Alabama and both games against Kentucky today. They had a lot of similarities:
In all three games, Gillispe swished a 3 on Tennessee's opening possession
In all three games, Tennessee had a double-digit lead in the second half
And in all of the games they blew the lead and lost the game.

They really struggled on both ends of the court in crunch time. Their defense seemed to give up a lot of drives to the rim (albeit from Oweh, Aberdeen and Philon) without any help defense. And then they tended to rush and make bad decisions, commit costly turnover, etc. And their go-to in crunch time is a drive from tiny Gillispe or a 15-18ft contested jumper from Ament. While Ament can get that off over almost anyone, it is not a high percentage shot (yet).
They do beat Houston, but then lost to Syracuse a few weeks later (turning it over 17 times).

Obviously this is grossly simplistic, but a team that struggles with turnovers can’t be terribly confident going up against ISU.
 
He’s what he really said if anyone is wondering. Shut it down pretty firmly.


wolf-of-wall-street-not-leaving.gif
 
They do beat Houston, but then lost to Syracuse a few weeks later (turning it over 17 times).

Obviously this is grossly simplistic, but a team that struggles with turnovers can’t be terribly confident going up against ISU.
That Houston game looks like one of those weird Vegas non-conference tourney games that just go sideways. It was the middle game of that Vegas tourney and Houston has just beaten Syracuse in OT the day before.

They were even on the boards and both turned the ball over 9 times, which is crazy for Houston. Gillispe had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 38 minutes. But the game was won at the FT line, Tenn shot 29 FTs and Houston only shot 11.
 
That Houston game looks like one of those weird Vegas non-conference tourney games that just go sideways. It was the middle game of that Vegas tourney and Houston has just beaten Syracuse in OT the day before.

They were even on the boards and both turned the ball over 9 times, which is crazy for Houston. Gillispe had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 38 minutes. But the game was won at the FT line, Tenn shot 29 FTs and Houston only shot 11.
That's what scares me though. If the refs have a quick whistle it could be that kind of game. FTs are our worst team metric. Rebounding fouls, fouls called instead of steals, fouls on double teams, etc. That's the easiest way I can see us losing to Tennessee. We are not going to win a free throw contest.
 
That Houston game looks like one of those weird Vegas non-conference tourney games that just go sideways. It was the middle game of that Vegas tourney and Houston has just beaten Syracuse in OT the day before.

They were even on the boards and both turned the ball over 9 times, which is crazy for Houston. Gillispe had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 38 minutes. But the game was won at the FT line, Tenn shot 29 FTs and Houston only shot 11.
Typically, I repeat, Typically

these Sweet 16 and beyond games are called fairly well and allow the teams to play the game…. to a point.

A tight whistle and 29 FTs for Tenn would be very detrimental.
 
To be fair, he didn’t say he wasn’t taking the UNC job….
Edit.

Sorry I missed the poster’s sarcasm.

My bad.

“First I’d just like to start by saying any speculation with me and any other Jobs or Opportunities is not true…”

He also didn’t say he wasn’t going to sign a lifetime contract with Iowa state either.
 
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That's what scares me though. If the refs have a quick whistle it could be that kind of game. FTs are our worst team metric. Rebounding fouls, fouls called instead of steals, fouls on double teams, etc. That's the easiest way I can see us losing to Tennessee. We are not going to win a free throw contest.
We easily could have been foul fckd in the Kentucky game, saw a lot of times we could have been called of stuff. I don't think we'll be as lucky the next game. But we'll have to adjust.
 

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