This is the biggest game that Iowa State has had in 10 years. Will we be able to get over the hump, or get stuck at the Sweet 16 again? I expect the 'Clones to win because we have a better team and have accomplished more over the season.
Illinois matchup
- Thread starter PizzaTheHutt
- Start date
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
Tell us about the Illinois ones. That's news to me, and I'm really intrigued here.
Does anyone know where Iowa State was at defensively and offensively ranked when they went against Virginia in 2016 in the Sweet 16? This game against Illinois reminds me of that game so much for it's potential, except now we're on the other side.
I've been thinking about this comparison a lot as well. In 2016 Iowa State was #7 in adjusted O and Virginia was #7 in adjusted D. I really like our chances to slow down and frustrate Illinois. If they try to play fast we will just slow the game down even more. Offensively we should be able to grind out long efficient possessions and score.
I think the game will come down to turnover rate in a huge way. Illini do not force turnovers so I don't see them getting to play in transition very often. Over under at 16 turnovers. We force more than that we win. If we force under that we probably lose this one.
probably the equalizer there will be rebounding, Illinois is #11 in the nation in rebounding margin and Iowa State is 170th.
Types of turnovers matter to me, I think you guys will win the overall turnover battle, we'll get extra possessions off the boards. If it's a very low tempo game and you're turning us over in the halfcourt that is bad news, we can open up the game and lose the ball a few times being aggressive I'm not sure that would bother me much.
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We are not a great rebounding team when I watch us rebound, but that rebounding statistic is bad for us because we force turnovers, as opposed to getting rebounds.
I'm not as concerned on the rebound front. Our rate isn't fantastic, but we play some of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country ie Houston prior to injuries. I think you also have to look at rate vs sheer number of offensive boards. Illini put up probably like 10-15 extra shots a game just based on pace of play over the entire year which leads to inflated number of offensive boards per game. Where as Iowa State leads the country in turnover percentage which means they also limit their opponents to fewer shots even with a lower pace of play.
We will do what we do, they will try to do what they do. It's much easier to slow a game down than speed a game up, which favors us. We have to keep them off the line/stay out of foul trouble and rebound reasonably well. That being said, it will be tough to get offensive boards because of how much they like to run.
We win by generating extra possessions, so assuming we don't get a ton of offensive rebounds because we're sending people to get back on defense, we need to turn them over. It's a familiar tune for us. Teams beat us by being patient and disciplined to attack our defense. We'll see if Illinois can be patient and disciplined for 40 minutes. I don't think they can.
We win by generating extra possessions, so assuming we don't get a ton of offensive rebounds because we're sending people to get back on defense, we need to turn them over. It's a familiar tune for us. Teams beat us by being patient and disciplined to attack our defense. We'll see if Illinois can be patient and disciplined for 40 minutes. I don't think they can.
I have no clue who is gonna win this game, I'll be surprised by anyone who is overly confident either way.
Just to expand on this, I think there is the first few minutes of shock having never faced something like the ISU pressure. That usually results in a Cyclone lead. Then the other team figures it out and claws back into the game. ISU then comes out of the half on a tear and shocks them again. Then the opposition wears down and ISU pulls away.
Valuing the ball and patience may be key for ISU.
I think that's been better since KSU; even if it's a run out, if it's not there, it's not there and running some sort of set helps to at least get a decent look.
I watched Illinois and Iowa on Youtube, and while I am not saying Iowa State will win, I am cautiously optimistic
Comparing how teams do against a common opponent is always a bad idea. Let's also not forget that ISU split with BYU this year so it isn't like there is no way ISU could beat them.
Really should be 'dunky do things' like she said.
The anticipation is absolutely wrecking me this week, but at the same time I have this strong feeling we are going to show up ready to rock. It's impossible to understate the amount of confidence this team received from that Big 12 championship game.
