Illinois matchup

[bawbie]

I think the game will come down to turnover rate in a huge way. Illini do not force turnovers so I don't see them getting to play in transition very often. Over under at 16 turnovers. We force more than that we win. If we force under that we probably lose this one.

They run off of misses (and probably some makes too), not turnovers. They like to get the ball ahead to Shannon about mid-court and then he attacks before the defense is set. But nobody does that well against us - I think the guy in the video up thread underestimated our transition defense. Nobody, including Illinois, runs more than TCU and we shut down that part of their game both times we played them.

 

[VeloClone]

It's all about TV. Unfortunately, between the two games that are played, you need a four and a half hour window, and we are the second game. With the West Coast, the first game is starting at 4:30. Can't really start it much before then.

We get that but that is the reason that the first game of the day should be the Boston game and the second the LA game. There is a half hour difference in the start times and the east coast game is the later start.

 

[madguy30]

It's funny--I was much more nervous about the SDSU and even WSU games just because of the matchup, semantics/optics like coaching trees etc. but I'm more excited for this one.

Two teams playing at an elite level for the last few weeks that will need to counter one another's strengths.

 

[VeloClone]

They run off of misses (and probably some makes too), not turnovers. They like to get the ball ahead to Shannon about mid-court and then he attacks before the defense is set. But nobody does that well against us - I think the guy in the video up thread underestimated our transition defense. Nobody, including Illinois, runs more than TCU and we shut down that part of their game both times we played them.

We won both of those games but I think in the first matchup TCU had 22 fast break points so we didn't exactly shut that part of their game down. In the second matchup they had 6. Same with BYU. They had a lot of FB points in the first matchup but didn't fare well in the second matchup. Hopefully that was due to ISU improvement and not due to where both second games were played (Hilton).

 

[nrg4isu]

This thread is way too analytical. I'm pretty sure what we're going to see is this. With Terrence Shannon in the middle.

 

[mynameisjonas]

Rebound and minimize 2nd chance points is the key to advancing, imo.

 

[cayin]

I've been thinking about this comparison a lot as well. In 2016 Iowa State was #7 in adjusted O and Virginia was #7 in adjusted D. I really like our chances to slow down and frustrate Illinois. If they try to play fast we will just slow the game down even more. Offensively we should be able to grind out long efficient possessions and score.

We are not a good half court offense, we have to turn people over to get our offense going. Points off of turnovers will be a key stat in this game. Plus, we need to limit their offensive rebounding. The way the game is called will be an important factor. They are going to go right at us, attack the hoop, to draw fouls. If they call the game tight, we could be in trouble. If they let us play physical, I think we eventually break them.

 

[madguy30]

We are not a good half court offense, we have to turn people over to get our offense going. Points off of turnovers will be a key stat in this game. Plus, we need to limit their offensive rebounding. The way the game is called will be an important factor. They are going to go right at us, attack the hoop, to draw fouls. If they call the game tight, we could be in trouble. If they let us play physical, I think we eventually break them.

I don't know where they're ranked in it (#49 but not sure about half-court specifically) and don't really care; imo ISU's half court offense, when ran with patience, good ball movement etc. is way underrated.

 

[cowgirl836]

Really should be 'dunky do things' like she said.

it is the correct technical term after all

 

[Cyforce]

We are not a great rebounding team when I watch us rebound, but that rebounding statistic is bad for us because we force turnovers, as opposed to getting rebounds.

Just an estimate but 2/3 of rebounds are defensive. When you turn your opponent over as much as we do you lose opportunities.

 

[Halincandenza]

ISU’s offensive rebounding rate is pretty good. Not as good as Illinois but it’s up there. So really not worried about that. Like others have said, some of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country are in the conference.

 

[NorthCyd]

Just an estimate but 2/3 of rebounds are defensive. When you turn your opponent over as much as we do you lose opportunities.

Rebound margin is a worthless stat. Unfortunately ISUs defensive rebounding percentage isn't great either. The video I linked today in this thread actually discusses why ISU tends to give up offensive rebounds with the defense they play.

 

[Halincandenza]

Another thing, Illinois hasn’t Done well against top defenses especially ones that have at least a competent offense. And their best wins this year are MSU and Wisconsin.

 

[bawbie]

Rebound and minimize 2nd chance points is the key to advancing, imo.

Agree, that's a huge key.

The others are:
- Stop Shannon in transition / ISO. If he gets deep toward the rim consistently, we are going to rack up the fouls and he'll shoot a ton of FTs
- Turn them over and score off of it (always a key)
- Slow the pace down, press, walk the ball up, be deliberate on offense

 

[madguy30]

The anticipation is absolutely wrecking me this week, but at the same time I have this strong feeling we are going to show up ready to rock. It's impossible to understate the amount of confidence this team received from that Big 12 championship game.

Shots may not fall, they may fall for Illinois, or whatever but anyone should be 100% confident that they'll leave it all out there.

 

[danvillecyclone]

I Trust the Metrics.
Illinois Defense is bad.
We will score a lot.

 

[SCISUFAN]

I Trust the Metrics.
Illinois Defense is bad.
We will score a lot.

Yea their defense is something like #142. That's why Madguy30 is correct in that ball movement and running our offense for best shot is critical in half court. If we do that eventually they will breakdown defensively. On our defensives side just limit transition points and we should be fine.

 

[NorthCyd]

Yea their defense is something like #142. That's why Madguy30 is correct in that ball movement and running our offense for best shot is critical in half court. If we do that eventually they will breakdown defensively. On our defensives side just limit transition points and we should be fine.

Defense is 92nd on Kenpom.

 

[chuckd4735]

One thing that concerns me is that Duquesne's defense was pretty solid (#31 in KenPom), and Illinois torched them.

I think we can slow Illinois down, but they are still good offensively and will find ways to score. We just cant have an off night, and need to be hitting shots.

 

[Cyforce]

One thing that concerns me is that Duquesne's defense was pretty solid (#31 in KenPom), and Illinois torched them.

I think we can slow Illinois down, but they are still good offensively and will find ways to score. We just cant have an off night, and need to be hitting shots.

How's that adjusted for SOS?