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Conference Prediction for ISU

Cynonymous said:
I'm sure glad the team didn't use kenpom to decide the last few seasons as our profile was much worse at this point in time (although with a better offensive efficiency). Advanced stats tend to fluctuate and I wouldn't use any prediction model to project more than a game or two in advance.
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This is false by the way. Below is the last three seasons, first number is what we were ranked at the beginning of conference play and second number is what we were ranked at the end of the season.

2016: 19/20
2015: 20/16
2014: 17/20

Over the last three seasons we did almost exactly as projected at the start of conference play.
 
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Clones8686 said:
This is false by the way. Below is the last three seasons, first number is what we were ranked at the beginning of conference play and second number is what we were ranked at the end of the season.

2016: 19/20
2015: 20/16
2014: 17/20

Over the last three seasons we did almost exactly as projected at the start of conference play.
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I stand corrected. I guess I don't remember ever being ranked that high in kenpom. If that's true we were playing nearly maxed out by conference play. It's possible that is the same for this season, but I think there is a lot of room for change. I guess we'll see.
 
Cynonymous said:
I stand corrected. I guess I don't remember ever being ranked that high in kenpom. If that's true we were playing nearly maxed out by conference play. It's possible that is the same for this season, but I think there is a lot of room for change. I guess we'll see.
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To be fair, it was more true in the earlier Hoiberg years, we were constantly outplaying the game by game projections and jumping up in the rankings as the year moved on. I think it kind of became a meme that kenpom hates Iowa State even though the last few years haven't really shown that.
 
Dingus said:
I don't know why some people are down on Monte, saying he isn't playing how they thought he would. He's doing a exactly what he's done the last 3years.

He can score in the flow of the game, but he's never been a 1 on 1 scorer. Not sure why people were suddenly expecting that.
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I'm not sure if people were expecting this, but I'd say it's odd that he's been playing that way since he's done so much pick and roll.

His best game is doing a lot without hardly being noticed and it's looked like that hasn't been acknowledged from a coaching standpoint early on. I didn't see the last game but it sounded like it was more like what he's best at doing and hopefully that continues.
 
Clones8686 said:
This is false by the way. Below is the last three seasons, first number is what we were ranked at the beginning of conference play and second number is what we were ranked at the end of the season.

2016: 19/20
2015: 20/16
2014: 17/20

Over the last three seasons we did almost exactly as projected at the start of conference play.
Click to expand...

Is the bolded representing 2015-16, and does it mean last season wasn't a complete dumpster fire, what with losing some games, not winning the Big 12 tourney after playing a Final Four team, and only beating a #1 ranked team for the first time in 50 years and making the 4th Sweet Sixteen appearance ever at a school that's barely over .500 all time?
 
madguy30 said:
Is the bolded representing 2015-16, and does it mean last season wasn't a complete dumpster fire, what with losing some games, not winning the Big 12 tourney after playing a Final Four team, and only beating a #1 ranked team for the first time in 50 years and making the 4th Sweet Sixteen appearance ever at a school that's barely over .500 all time?
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The bolded season is 2014-2015, it was a pretty great season, we won the Big 12 conference tournament, got a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament, but then they unfortunately cancelled the whole event before a game could be played.
 
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Clones8686 said:
The bolded season is 2014-2015, it was a pretty great season, we won the Big 12 conference tournament, got a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament, but then they unfortunately cancelled the whole event before a game could be played.
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I'll always wonder what could have happened with the tournament that year. I mean, really, UAB was never going to slow that team down for a minute.
Who seeds the whole tournament and calls it off? Crazy year!
 
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CyTwins said:
Actually I follow it religiously. If we play good at Hilton we're not losing. To say we have to play nearly perfect in most games just to win is really stupid
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We can play good (for us) and lose in Hilton. We already have. Performances are not as binary as good/bad.

You're probably one of many that have been overly critical of our final standings in conference play. Given the fine line in the outcome of close games, there's a significant difference between playing perfect and playing nearly our best. For many of the past handful of years we have overestimated our hypothetical "perfect". Our best is far from perfect- with more modest views of the team's upside, it's fair to say our play better be close to our achievable "best" or we will lose too many games to make the tournament.
 
CycloneErik said:
I'll always wonder what could have happened with the tournament that year. I mean, really, UAB was never going to slow that team down for a minute.
Who seeds the whole tournament and calls it off? Crazy year!
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I remember the NCAA tourney cancellation vividly. But it must be like the Fab Five where all of the records are wiped out. Doesn't even show up on Google.

But at least we can all feel good since the last game they played was a win over **** Kansas.
 
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swarthmoreCY said:
We can play good (for us) and lose in Hilton. We already have. Performances are not as binary as good/bad.

You're probably one of many that have been overly critical of our final standings in conference play. Given the fine line in the outcome of close games, there's a significant difference between playing perfect and playing nearly our best. For many of the past handful of years we have overestimated our hypothetical "perfect". Our best is far from perfect- with more modest views of the team's upside, it's fair to say our play better be close to our achievable "best" or we will lose too many games to make the tournament.
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When have we played good at lost in Hilton? If we play good against KU, WVU or Baylor at home we're winning
 
CyTwins, a couple posts ago you said ISU played "very good" against Cincinnati. There is a loss at Hilton where we played "good' according to you. :)
 
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nickcyv said:
CyTwins, a couple posts ago you said ISU played "very good" against Cincinnati. There is a loss at Hilton where we played "good' according to you. :)
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I said very good defensively. We were atrocious offensively that night and would not say we played good overall at all
 
Cynonymous said:
I'm sure glad the team didn't use kenpom to decide the last few seasons as our profile was much worse at this point in time (although with a better offensive efficiency). Advanced stats tend to fluctuate and I wouldn't use any prediction model to project more than a game or two in advance.
Click to expand...

No it wasn't, we were top 20 in kenpom heading into B12 play in each of the three previous seasons.
 
CyTwins said:
Now we're #30. Man we're terrible
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Which places us fifth in the conference and in a projected four way tie for 5th with KSU, TCU and OSU at 8-10 in the conference. No one is saying we suck. If we were 30th and were in the SEC, we would win a ton of games. In the Big 12, being 30th nationally means you will be in a dog fight every night because 80% of the league is ranked 37th or higher. Basketball games do not happen in a vacuum, two teams are involved and if our team plays like we did against Cincy, Iowa, Drake, Indiana State and even Gonzaga, we will lose more often than we win, even in Hilton. I hope we improve and rise to the challenge, but I am certainly not expecting any game to be a sure win today but will be cheering my arse off for it to be one.
 
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CyTwins said:
Now we're #30. Man we're terrible
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Has anyone said we're terrible? You have nothing but hyperbole for a retort.

8 of the conference's 10 teams are in the top-37 and the lowest ranked team is #69 (only one spot lower than a team that soundly beat us). An average team is at risk of not making the tournament, and one that performs poorly on the road and in close games can quickly go from average to below average in record.
 
CyTwins said:
Bump
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Do you have amnesia? We've already lost to the one Big 12 level team we have played at Hilton. Whether we consider that performance good or bad is frivolous. This team is clearly beatable at home.

For someone that likes to advertise that Kenpom ranking, you must concerned about the final record projections.
 
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