Bubble Watch
- Thread starter vcl3
- Start date
Actually, if Gonzaga were to lose again I could see any of Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA sliding into a #1 seed depending on who wins the PAC-12 tourney. They all 3 have really similiar resumes.
If Gonzaga wins out I think the 3 PAC-12 heavyweights would all be in the 2-3 seed range.
If Gonzaga wins out I think the 3 PAC-12 heavyweights would all be in the 2-3 seed range.
No. Re-read my post. I thought they should be a 2-seed, since Baylor probably drops to a 3, having lost 3 of their last 4.
Well, we are officially a lock for the tournament according to the latest update. OSU jumped in there with us as well.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Hey, it only took them 5 days to update it. I dont what Brennan is doing thats so important that they cant update it after each days games like most sites.
Finally! Probably should've locked us even before Baylor win, but it is what it was.
I think Dayton and VCU should be considered locks at this point, too. SOS numbers aren't great, but RPI in the top 25 for both, I can't see either sliding enough to drop out. Arkansas, Xavier and U-M are might-as-well-be-locks.
The Watch is correct to add Georgia and Illinois to this list, as fringe-like as they are.
I'm just glad Pitt and Clemson are finally off this page. It only took 12 conference losses for the ACC-biased Espn to finally drop them. Now I can read this page without laughing anymore.
Whats crazy is how similar Northwestern and Illinois resumes really are.
Ball/Leaf combo is probably my favorite to watch in all of CBB.
Specific to Iowa State, which reached lock-status at least one game before ESPN declared it: ISU is 90% secure above the 8/9 seed line. Conservatively.
Yikes, you could be right. Two of the following: Colorado St. (go Eustachy!), Nevada, Boise St. Didn't realize Nevada has a pretty solid RPI.
This is another crazy scenario: 3 from the MVC. If, say, UNI wins their tourney, it could still be likely that Illinois St. and Wichita St. make it too.
I remember the year VCU made the Final Four, the committee surprised just about everybody by putting them in the field. Also, if I recall correctly, the same goes for George Mason the year they went to the Final Four. So it's not unprecedented that the committee would pick a seemingly undeserving mid-major over a P5 school.
Quick Bubble-Watch update, thru March 1:
* KSU kept its meager hopes alive with win road win at TCU, an in-effect "play-out" game. If K-State defeats Tech on Saturday, it stays alive, otherwise it's probably toast for at-large.
* Don't look now, but Big Ten might get 8 teams in. Illinois is on the cusp — Illini profile actually isn't much different than Northwestern's, and NW most likely punched a ticket with the hail-mary win over U-M. Result in finale vs. Purdue won't matter, and only possible chance for a damaging loss in Big tourney would be if Rutgers somehow wins on Day 1, then beats NW. (Yeah, like that's gonna happen.)
* SEC: Georgia stayed afloat, barely, with a 1-point win over Auburn; Ole Miss dwindling; Tennessee probably out.
* ACC: Wake freaking Forest is not dead yet, with win over UL. Deacons finally got a top-25 RPI win after 11,000 opportunities.
* Xavier, comfortably in not long ago, is in danger of missing the cut, although RPI still somehow looks bubble-proof. Strange.
* On related note, Marquette helped itself with win at XU.
* KSU kept its meager hopes alive with win road win at TCU, an in-effect "play-out" game. If K-State defeats Tech on Saturday, it stays alive, otherwise it's probably toast for at-large.
* Don't look now, but Big Ten might get 8 teams in. Illinois is on the cusp — Illini profile actually isn't much different than Northwestern's, and NW most likely punched a ticket with the hail-mary win over U-M. Result in finale vs. Purdue won't matter, and only possible chance for a damaging loss in Big tourney would be if Rutgers somehow wins on Day 1, then beats NW. (Yeah, like that's gonna happen.)
* SEC: Georgia stayed afloat, barely, with a 1-point win over Auburn; Ole Miss dwindling; Tennessee probably out.
* ACC: Wake freaking Forest is not dead yet, with win over UL. Deacons finally got a top-25 RPI win after 11,000 opportunities.
* Xavier, comfortably in not long ago, is in danger of missing the cut, although RPI still somehow looks bubble-proof. Strange.
* On related note, Marquette helped itself with win at XU.
I think that conference is good enough to deserve two bids, and I hope they get them. They are really not much different from the A10.
Contradicting my previous post to some extent, realistically UN might be left high & dry because of lingering power-5/B-East hangers-on (and Nevada is dragged down by SOS). Big-conference teams had been effectively losing their way out at a high rate prior to recent days.
MWC might produce only 1 as auto-bid, I'm curious about teams like Houston, UT-Arlington, Middle Tennessee, UNCW, and such. ... Less-specifically, it feels like somebody in that territory will get at-large over revolving-door teams like Wake, KSU, Georgia, and so on.
- I think the MWC is a 1-bid leauge
-I think MVC gets 2 bids, WSU and Illinios St, there is so much seperation this year I dont see another team winning the MVC tourney
-TCU is out, does K-State get a bid now if it beats Tech at 8-10? Or do they need to win a game in the Big 12 tourney? They will be 6th seed and draw us, Baylor, or West Virginia
-Xavier has to be in trouble at this point?
-Illinois suddenly looks like a legit bubble team when looking at their resume, swept Northwestern, beat Michgian and MSU at home, pretty tough non-conf, beat VCU and BYU on a neutral floor
I think Syracuse is an interesting team and a good barometer for the bubble. Some really good wins at home, but no wins away from home of note unless you count Clemson.
Syracuse (51 KenPom, 79 RPI)
17-13
9-8 ACC
Wins against Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Wake Forest
Clemson sticks out as their only decent road win (34 KenPom, 60 RPI)
It's that road record that is really dragging them down and the RPI is punishing them for it. The road losses against tourney teams weren't close either with an average of 14 pts. Their non-conf schedule did them no favors as well. Yet, there they are sitting right on the bubble.
Syracuse (51 KenPom, 79 RPI)
17-13
9-8 ACC
Wins against Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Miami, Wake Forest
Clemson sticks out as their only decent road win (34 KenPom, 60 RPI)
It's that road record that is really dragging them down and the RPI is punishing them for it. The road losses against tourney teams weren't close either with an average of 14 pts. Their non-conf schedule did them no favors as well. Yet, there they are sitting right on the bubble.
Crazy to see how the Mountain West effectively has become the WAC and the WAC became... well... hey they have a conference... good for them.
I think the MVC gets 2 bids if Wichita and Illinois State both get to the title game. Wichita is probably in regardless but I think Illinois State gets left out if they fail to make it to the finals.
Wichita and Illinois State have weird resumes. Wichita's best win (and only top 50 win) is Illinois State. Illinois State's best win (and only top 50 win) is Wichita. Combined they have 4 Top 100 wins and 2 of those are against each other. What will help Wichita State is they have nothing remotely close to a bad loss and they flat out steam rolled bums in that conference.
Agree 100%, Wichita State is really an unknown, like you said they havent beaten anybody but they are destroying every MVC team which at least has to account for something.
I would prefer to avoid them in the 1st round, Illinois State I wouldnt be as concerned with if we end up getting matched up with them.
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