Bubble Watch

[Cyclonepride]

From Lunardi:

"Or as NCAA Tournament bracket guru Joe Lunardi told me in a text:

“A split of their remaining six games would be more than enough. Even two wins, plus one in the Big 12 Tournament, should do it.”"

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...acketologists-break-down-iowa-state/97890162/

 

[Gunnerclone]

Most teams in the top 16 were slotted very close to their RPI. It's still going to be a big factor this year.

Well for the sake of your already failing credibility I hope we aren't safely as in as I think we are at the end of the season.

 

[Sigmapolis]

From Lunardi:

"Or as NCAA Tournament bracket guru Joe Lunardi told me in a text:

“A split of their remaining six games would be more than enough. Even two wins, plus one in the Big 12 Tournament, should do it.”"

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...acketologists-break-down-iowa-state/97890162/

So basically this situation...

With three pieces left, no?

 

[BryceC]

Well for the sake of your already failing credibility I hope we aren't safely as in as I think we are at the end of the season.

I have credibility?

 

[DSM4Cy]

9-9 is in for sure. 8-10 is when you guys should start sweating, but I think they'd still squeak in.

I do not understand this view. 8-10 in league makes us 16-14 overall going to KC, and guarantees us 15 losses unless we win the B12 Tourney. There is a 0% chance we make the tourney at 16-15 or 17-15.

9-9 still only gives us 17 wins in regular season. While the bubble is terrible this year, I'm not convinced we are a lock especially losing the first game in KC. Weird stuff can happen especially in power conference tourneys, i.e. someone outside the bubble wins in the ACC or P12. Do you really think we can feel confident at 17-14 (9-9) with an RPI in the 60s? No way. There has only been one at-large with that type of record since 2000. Someone may make it this year, but they are going to have more Top 25 wins than us - which is only @KU.

 

[EarthIsMan]

Public service announcement: stop acting like the RPI is the be-all and end-all. It is flawed and even the NCAA tourney selection committee knows this.

Whatever way we can get 3 wins (including from the B12 tourney) we are probably in.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Public service announcement: stop acting like the RPI is the be-all and end-all. It is flawed and even the NCAA tourney selection committee knows this.

Whatever way we can get 3 wins (including from the B12 tourney) we are probably in.

Agree on 3 wins and in. Would be better if they happened before KC, as having to wait means we will be inching toward the First Four territory.

As for RPI, you're right to a degree. If all you used was KenPom and Sagarin, we would be in great shape. But it is still a significant part of their criteria this one last year, as evidenced by their Top 16 reveal. The only team on there that was way off from the RPI was WV, which suggests the B12 will be looked at favorably. That seed was like an average of their RPI and their analytical ratings.

I could see us getting in with only 17 overall wins, as some team from the B12 or ACC might this year. But, I'd rather get our RPI back into the 40s and solidify our resume so we don't end up in Dayton.

 

[EarthIsMan]

Precedents

Since 2005.....

14 losses (n=5) are the most for "Big Six" conference teams to still receive an at-large bids

17 wins (n=2) are the fewest for "Big Six" conference teams to still receive an at-large bid

63, 64, & 67 are the worst RPIs of "Big Six" conference teams to receive at-large bids

40, 41, 45, & 49 are the best RPIs of "Big Six" conference team to NOT receive at large bids

 

[Bigman38]

I do not understand this view. 8-10 in league makes us 16-14 overall going to KC, and guarantees us 15 losses unless we win the B12 Tourney. There is a 0% chance we make the tourney at 16-15 or 17-15.

9-9 still only gives us 17 wins in regular season. While the bubble is terrible this year, I'm not convinced we are a lock especially losing the first game in KC. Weird stuff can happen especially in power conference tourneys, i.e. someone outside the bubble wins in the ACC or P12. Do you really think we can feel confident at 17-14 (9-9) with an RPI in the 60s? No way. There has only been one at-large with that type of record since 2000. Someone may make it this year, but they are going to have more Top 25 wins than us - which is only @KU.

Stop just looking at ISU and look at who their competition for the bubble would be. RPI is mediocre, every other metric is great for ISU. Perception is the Big 12 is the best conference. @KU isn't a run of the mill top 25 win, it's the best win any team any college basketball has right now. Even if you take ISU's resume and flip the @ Texas and @KU results, their still in.

9-9 in the Big 12 gets ISU in, period, no qualifiers needed.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[NoCreativity]

Stop just looking at ISU and look at who their competition for the bubble would be. RPI is mediocre, every other metric is great for ISU. Perception is the Big 12 is the best conference. @KU isn't a run of the mill top 25 win, it's the best win any team any college basketball has right now. Even if you take ISU's resume and flip the @ Texas and @KU results, their still in.

9-9 in the Big 12 gets ISU in, period, no qualifiers needed.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

It amazes me people still dont think we will get in at 9-9. There is no way any other team in the conference besides us even finishes with a winning record besides the top 3 obviously.

What we are going to be looking at is a bunch of teams in the 8-10, 9-9 mark when the regular season is finished. The Big 12 is getting more than 3 teams in the tourney, so therefore teams in that range are most likely dancing.

 

[inCyteful]

What amazes me is that we are still thinking of terms of 'just getting in'. I will be very disappointed if we don't go into the tourney with some momentum. That means 3-3 over next 6 games at a minimum. I am not interested in backing into the tourney as a 10 seed just to lose the first game. Program has progressed beyond that especially with a senior laden team.
CSP and team need to figure out how to go 4-2, win at least 1 or 2 in KC and win at least 1 in Tourney. Anything else will be less than expected. Frankly, a team that beat Kansas at home late in the season should 2 in the tourney.

 

[NoCreativity]

What amazes me is that we are still thinking of terms of 'just getting in'. I will be very disappointed if we don't go into the tourney with some momentum. That means 3-3 over next 6 games at a minimum. I am not interested in backing into the tourney as a 10 seed just to lose the first game. Program has progressed beyond that especially with a senior laden team.
CSP and team need to figure out how to go 4-2, win at least 1 or 2 in KC and win at least 1 in Tourney. Anything else will be less than expected. Frankly, a team that beat Kansas at home late in the season should 2 in the tourney.

So what if we back into the tourney as a 10 seed and then win the first game?

I dont think anybody is disagreeing with you, everyone wants to see them finish strong, but you also have to be realistic and start thinking at bare minimum what do we need to do to assure a berth. I think thats what alot of this bubble discussion has been about.

 

[Gunnerclone]

What amazes me is that we are still thinking of terms of 'just getting in'. I will be very disappointed if we don't go into the tourney with some momentum. That means 3-3 over next 6 games at a minimum. I am not interested in backing into the tourney as a 10 seed just to lose the first game. Program has progressed beyond that especially with a senior laden team.
CSP and team need to figure out how to go 4-2, win at least 1 or 2 in KC and win at least 1 in Tourney. Anything else will be less than expected. Frankly, a team that beat Kansas at home late in the season should 2 in the tourney.

Overrated.

 

[Bigman38]

What amazes me is that we are still thinking of terms of 'just getting in'. I will be very disappointed if we don't go into the tourney with some momentum. That means 3-3 over next 6 games at a minimum. I am not interested in backing into the tourney as a 10 seed just to lose the first game. Program has progressed beyond that especially with a senior laden team.
CSP and team need to figure out how to go 4-2, win at least 1 or 2 in KC and win at least 1 in Tourney. Anything else will be less than expected. Frankly, a team that beat Kansas at home late in the season should 2 in the tourney.

It's just something to talk about for me while we wait for the game. If this team bumbles into the tourney like that I'll be very surprised. Right now I think this is a team with a decent shot at winning two in the tourney, and could make a run in the big 12 tourney.

 

[inCyteful]

So what if we back into the tourney as a 10 seed and then win the first game?

I dont think anybody is disagreeing with you, everyone wants to see them finish strong, but you also have to be realistic and start thinking at bare minimum what do we need to do to assure a berth. I think thats what alot of this bubble discussion has been about.

I would not have any confidence at all in beating a 7th seed in the tourney if we can't win at least 3 of our remaining regular season games and beat the 5 or 12 seed in the Big XII tourney. Xavier or St. Mary's as a 7th seed opponent would be tougher than @KSU, TCU, OSU.

Obviously it would be good to see tourney streak alive and just get to the spectacle of the tourney. I wouldn't complain but really hope for these seniors that there is something bigger in store.

 

[brokenloginagain]

i continue to be amused by everyone trying to apply logic, or some linear path, regarding our team this year. there is no "should" with this team, only "could."

we could make the s16 or we could flame out early - who knows. its not like we have NBA talent on our roster, or some superior strategy/coaching.

we have really good (small) players who need to make 3s to win the game. we get hot - we win. if not, we lose.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

Just get in. There is an extremely fine line in terms of quality of play between 20-11 and 17-14. Much of it is luck imo. Given our weaknesses and fairly limited manner in which we can win I'm pleased with where Prohm has the team. We're essentially as "good" as what could reasonably be expected

 

[TykeClone]

Precedents

Since 2005.....

14 losses (n=5) are the most for "Big Six" conference teams to still receive an at-large bids

17 wins (n=2) are the fewest for "Big Six" conference teams to still receive an at-large bid

63, 64, & 67 are the worst RPIs of "Big Six" conference teams to receive at-large bids

What are the tournament records of the teams in those categories?

 

[NoCreativity]

I would not have any confidence at all in beating a 7th seed in the tourney if we can't win at least 3 of our remaining regular season games and beat the 5 or 12 seed in the Big XII tourney. Xavier or St. Mary's as a 7th seed opponent would be tougher than @KSU, TCU, OSU.

Obviously it would be good to see tourney streak alive and just get to the spectacle of the tourney. I wouldn't complain but really hope for these seniors that there is something bigger in store.

Umm, no not really. So you think playing St Mary's on a neutral court is tougher than playing in Manhattan? No way.

 

[allfourcy]

What amazes me is that we are still thinking of terms of 'just getting in'. I will be very disappointed if we don't go into the tourney with some momentum. That means 3-3 over next 6 games at a minimum. I am not interested in backing into the tourney as a 10 seed just to lose the first game. Program has progressed beyond that especially with a senior laden team.
CSP and team need to figure out how to go 4-2, win at least 1 or 2 in KC and win at least 1 in Tourney. Anything else will be less than expected. Frankly, a team that beat Kansas at home late in the season should 2 in the tourney.

"anything else will be less than expected."......you might want to remove sharp objects from your home.