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Bubble Watch

To remain on the safe side of the bubble, ISU needs to take care of business. Get another impressive win, avoid bad losses. First order of business: Beat OU. Pleeez.

To weed out the competition and also keep ISU's head-to-head as strong as possible, for games on 2-11:
1. Root against:
Michigan State
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Tennessee
Syracuse
Marquette

2. Root for:
Cincinnati
Oklahoma State
Miami
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
 
At this point I think it is basically - beat Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State at home and ISU is in, maybe a frst four game, but in. Win any game in addition to those, including conference tournament, and they're in and definitely out of the first four games.
 
Clones8686 said:
At this point I think it is basically - beat Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State at home and ISU is in, maybe a frst four game, but in. Win any game in addition to those, including conference tournament, and they're in and definitely out of the first four games.
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I have disagreement with you on only one detail. I think it's necessary to beat Baylor or any road game, in additional to your requirements. A win in Big 12 tournament might put it over the top, but that depends on which teams were W/L's in regular season, and the impact of beating that first-round opponent.
 
Clones8686 said:
I love bubble watch, I especially love that they use "lock" in the truest sense of the term.
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Agree. The concept of "lock" in bubble-watch is a team would have to lose the majority of its remaining games to be in danger of missing the tournament. Bubble-Watchers don't want to put teams in Lock status and then have to rescind it if something goes awry.
 
  • Agree
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cyclones500 said:
I have disagreement with you on only one detail. I think it's necessary to beat Baylor or any road game, in additional to your requirements. A win in Big 12 tournament might put it over the top, but that depends on which teams were W/L's in regular season, and the impact of beating that first-round opponent.
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IMO, 18-12 (10-8) with a win over Baylor is likely not even close to play-in game. It could even be as high as 7 seed territory if committee shows a lot of respect to Big 12.
 
  • Agree
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Rogue52 said:
IMO, 18-12 (10-8) with a win over Baylor is likely not even close to play-in game. It could even be as high as 7 seed territory if committee shows a lot of respect to Big 12.
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It should be something like that, I agree. I struggle with how I'm fairly comfy being 18-12 (10-8), but extremely nervous at 17-13/9-9. One would think one game shouldn't matter that much, but if W/L vs. BU is factored (or losing to OU or at Tech), it's possible to see the chasm.
 
Bubble-watch games today:
U-M at IU: Indiana needs wins. Michigan needs wins (especially on the road). This could be a separation point.
Wichita State at Loyola: WSU has OK RPI, a 40-point win over Illinois State, good losses, no bad losses (so far). Probably can't afford to lose this.
Nevada at San Diego State: Nevada's at-large hopes are slim, 3 sub-100 losses, best win is at Boise State. Probably has to win out in regular season and get to the MWC final to have a shot.
Virginia at Virginia Tech: VT hasn't been considered absolute bubble to this point, but several teams in their sub-50 win category continue to slide lower. Beating UVa would get a much-needed top-25 to add to the Duke win.
 
cyclones500 said:
It should be something like that, I agree. I struggle with how I'm fairly comfy being 18-12 (10-8), but extremely nervous at 17-13/9-9. One would think one game shouldn't matter that much, but if W/L vs. BU is factored (or losing to OU or at Tech), it's possible to see the chasm.
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Any team that finishes at least 9-9 in the Big 12 is getting in this year. The leauge is too good, and we might only end up with 3 teams finishing above .500 in league play.
 
  • Agree
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dahliaclone said:
An 8-10 Okie State or ISU could get in too
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Yeah, possibly, I think in that scenario Oklahoma State would have a leg up on us though. If we finished 8-10 we would need to do some damage in KC. Okie State dug themselves a deep hole though and need a solid finish to even get to 8-10.

I think this next week is the most important week of the year. If we could go 2-0 this week against TCU and K-State, that would pretty much lock up a bid for us and assure that we would probably end up the 4 seed in the conference.
 
  • Agree
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awd4cy said:
If selection Sunday was today, Indiana would be out. RPI now at 79 and should fall after a home loss to Michigan.
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I'd agree with that but that "Top 16" thing they did has me wondering what they are going to emphasize this year when they are going to be searching hard for teams to put in instead of looking at who they have to leave out. If SOS and non-con is a big deal this year I could see some RPI head scratchers this year.

They already kind of started covering their azzes on that earlier with the announcement that they will officially start using other metrics next year.
 
Gunnerclone said:
They already kind of started covering their azzes on that earlier with the announcement that they will officially start using other metrics next year.
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What does officially mean? Is the NCAA going to start putting out other metrics besides the RPI?
 
NorthCyd said:
What does officially mean? Is the NCAA going to start putting out other metrics besides the RPI?
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Right now the committee can "use whatever they like" but RPI will be taken in to account and officially discussed.

I think next year they can use whatever they like but RPI, kenpom, Sagarin etc. will be taken in to account and officially discussed (I'm not sure what metrics they are actually adding to the mix).
 
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