At-Larges

[Judoka]

We have a few guys in the running for at large spots, which will be announced on Wednesday. Here's the criteria for at large selection:

On March 7, wrestlers in each weight class will receive an updated Win %, RPI and coaches’ ranking that includes all competition through the qualifying events. Wrestlers who meet or exceed any two of the following criteria will be labeled “Bronze Standard”:

• .700 Win %
• Top 33 RPI
• Top 33 CR
• .700 winning percentage against all competition
• One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
• Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Only Bronze Standard wrestlers will be eligible for selection as at-large qualifiers. A wrestler must have participated in his respective conference or regional qualifying tournament in order to be considered for at-large selection to the championships. The NCAA Wrestling Committee will use the following weighted criteria, in priority order, to evaluate the Bronze Standard wrestlers:

• Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
• Quality wins — 20 percent
• Coaches ranking — 15 percent
• Results against common opponents — 10 percent
• RPI — 10 percent
• Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
• Win percentage — 10 percent

We have between two and four guys eligible for at large consideration.

• Straw has a win over a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via earned position (4-3 win over Colgan of Wyoming) and finished one spot short of qualifying, so he is eligible for consideration.
• Harrington has a win over a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via earned position (At least three of them, 3-2 over Love of Virginia, 6-4 over Nevills, and 3-2 over Dennison) and finished one spot short of qualifying, so he is eligible for consideration.
• Parker has a win over a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via earned position (3-1 over Heil of OSU) but wasn't eligible for inclusion in the last coaches ranking. He has 5 matches at 141 now and should be included in the final ranking. So while he isn't 100% for sure eligible I think he will be.
• Colbray has a win over a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via earned position (WBF over Rotert, also 6-5 over Smith but I'm not totally sure if Smith earned an allocation) and was 33rd in the most recent RPI. So he might be eligible, but that's a really borderline RPI so there's a good chance he won't be.

I just took a quick look at who is ranked at 141, 157, and HWT and didn't punch their ticket over the weekend.

141 has 6 spots. 11 guys who were ranked in the last coaches panel didn't autoqualify

• #13 Thomas Thorn (Minnesota)
• #16 Cole Weaver (Indiana)
• #19 Austin Headlee (North Carolina)
• #21 Alex Madrigal (Old Dominion)
• #23 Tyson Dippery (Rider)
• #24 Javier Gasca III (Michigan St.)
• #26 Russell Rohlfing (CSU Bakersfield)
• #28 Salvatore Profaci (Michigan)
• #31 Henry Pohlmeyer (South Dakota St.)
• #33 Mike Longo (Oklahoma)
• #33 Alexander Jaffe (Harvard)

157 has 4 spots. 9 guys who were ranked in the last coaches panel didn't autoqualify

• #18 Coleman Hammond (CSU Bakersfield)
• #23 Ian Brown (Lehigh)
• #24 Taleb Rahmani (Pittsburgh)
• #26 Bryant Clagon (Rider)
• #27 Larry Early (Old Dominion)
• #28 Kyle Langenderfer (Illinois)
• #29 Zachary Davis (Navy)
• #31 BC LaPrade (Virginia Tech)
• #32 Fredy Stroker (Cornell)

HWT has 4 spots. 6 guys who were ranked in the last coaches panel didn't autoqualify

• #17 Ryan Solomon (Pittsburgh)
• #24 Jake Gunning (Buffalo)
• #26 Brett Dempsey (American)
• #30 Matt Voss (George Mason)
• #32 Cary Miller (Appalachian St.)
• #33 Daniel Stibral (North Dakota St. )

Those are some pretty long lists at 141 and 157, which really hurts any chances that Parker or Straw would have. Harrington is in better shape but it'll likely come down to how the coaches end up ranking the 30-32 ranked guys (who all took bad losses at their conference tournaments) and if they put Harrington in to the rankings (he didn't take any losses to unranked guys at Big 12s).

 

[buf87]

Well you have to think that Stibral of NDSU is out at 285 and Longo of Oklahoma is out at 141

 

[Rick]

Not trying to derail the thread but is Stroker the ex TOE wrestler? If so, I was expecting him to do much better at this level.

 

[buf87]

Not trying to derail the thread but is Stroker the ex TOE wrestler? If so, I was expecting him to do much better at this level.

Transferred from Minnesota and wrestled at Bettendorf, I believe

 

[BCClone]

Yes he is. Transferred from Minnesota and wrestled at Bettendorf, I believe

Small correction. Is a former Iowa HS wrestler, but not TOE wrestler.

 

[Judoka]

Well you have to think that Stibral of NDSU is out at 285 and Longo of Oklahoma is out at 141

Agreed. I think Parker would be sitting a lot better if he hadn't lost to Pohlmeyer. But since Pohlmeyer owns the head to head against him that's a big dent to his chances. If he had taken 4th with only a loss to Alber I'd feel a whole lot better.

 

[Judoka]

I'm only going to take a closer look at HWT because Straw and Parker's chances basically come down to "Hope the coaches panel really, really likes them and dislikes some other guys". They aren't zero, just tough to actually look at vs. hope for the best.

I think the realistic at-large pool for HWT is these 9 guys. These are the 8 guys who finished one spot short of placing at their conference tournament plus Stibral, who finished 2 short but was ranked.

#17 Ryan Solomon (Pittsburgh)
#24 Jake Gunning (Buffalo)
#26 Brett Dempsey (American)
#30 Matt Voss (George Mason)
#32 Cary Miller (Appalachian St.)
#33 Daniel Stibral (North Dakota St. )
#UR Rylee Streifel (Minnesota)
#UR Spencer Empey (Cal-Poly)
#UR Marcus Harrington (Iowa State)

Solomon injury defaulted 14 seconds into his semifinal match at ACCs and then forfeited his way through the rest of the tournament. Does anybody know what his injury was? If it is something that'll heal up he's a shoe in for 1 of the spots.

 

[jkbuff98]

Reading that Solomon had a concussion so that just depends on how severe and when they release him

 

[jkbuff98]

Looking a little further into that he evidently hit the back of his head on the basketball floor, has had a couple of previous concussions, this from their message board. I have to think they will give him the spot on Wed and then see if he has to withdraw later.

 

[Judoka]

Looking a little further into that he evidently hit the back of his head on the basketball floor, has had a couple of previous concussions, this from their message board. I have to think they will give him the spot on Wed and then see if he has to withdraw later.

Yeah, that makes sense. Unlikely that they'd know for sure if he'd recover in time by Wednesday so they'd keep his name in the hat.

 

[Judoka]

Alright, first cut is to just give Solomon the first spot and take him out of the equation. Which leaves 3 spots.

I think Streifel is out (No quality wins and a sub .500 record)
I think Stibral is out (Gotta think he falls out of the rankings and with that he won't meet the minimum 2 bronze legs)
I think Empey is out (He wasn't ranked, wasn't in the RPI, has no quality wins, and has a sub .500 record)

So that leaves

• Jake Gunning
• Brett Dempsey
• Matt Voss
• Cary Miller
• Marcus Harrington

For three spots.

 

[Judoka]

I should note though - it would be very good for Harrington if Stibral stays in the rankings. Harrington is 2-0 against Stibral so that would help him in the head to head portion of the equation.

 

[jkbuff98]

Alright, first cut is to just give Solomon the first spot and take him out of the equation. Which leaves 3 spots.

I think Streifel is out (No quality wins and a sub .500 record)
I think Stibral is out (Gotta think he falls out of the rankings and with that he won't meet the minimum 2 bronze legs)
I think Empey is out (He wasn't ranked, wasn't in the RPI, has no quality wins, and has a sub .500 record)

So that leaves

• Jake Gunning
• Brett Dempsey
• Matt Voss
• Cary Miller
• Marcus Harrington

For three spots.

When do the rankings come out ?

 

[Judoka]

When do the rankings come out ?

Wednesday but if we see them at all probably won't be before they release the participant list

 

[JM4CY]

I know we had no points last nationals IIRC but how many qualifiers did we have?

 

[Judoka]

I know we had no points last nationals IIRC but how many qualifiers did we have?

Ahem. We scored one point thank you very much.

Harrington qualified last year at Big XIIs. Hall and Weatherspoon got At-Larges to put us up to three qualifiers..Our one point came via a first round win from Weatherspoon.

 

[Judoka]

Okay, here's how everybody sorts out against the criteria

Empey is the only one out for sure. But Streifel is for sure not competitive. Stibral is holding on by a thread with his #33 ranking being the only way he hits the criteria for consideration. Gunning looks like he has seperated himself from the pack. So I think at this point you add Gunning to the list of taken spots and now you have 2 left.

At this point you have to start getting in to "what if" territory. How are the coaches going to rank these guys? Especially the last three. Harrington was out of the rankings and beat the #33 guy while losing to #27 and #29. Nobody else had any ranked wins and they all ate at least one ranked loss. If Harrington stays unranked he's almost for sure not going to get a bid. If he slides in at 33 it is still tenuous. But if he can get up to 30 or maybe even 31 then I think his quality wins will give him the extra push he would need to get the last at large spot.

Before looking at head to head or common opponents I'd say Solomon, Gunning, and Dempsey get spots with the last one going to either Voss or Harrington.

 

[JM4CY]

Ahem. We scored one point thank you very much.

Harrington qualified last year at Big XIIs. Hall and Weatherspoon got At-Larges to put us up to three qualifiers..Our one point came via a first round win from Weatherspoon.

My bad. I thought I remembered Dresser saying we had no points last year so there’s no where to go than up in an interview with CW but I must remembering that wrong.

 

[Judoka]

Added head to head

I'm not sure exactly how they calculate this when there is such an incomplete set of head to head data. But looking at this I'd say I'd like to see Miller drop out of the rankings and Stibral stay in them (but behind Harrington). Those two things happening would give Harrington a nice boost

 

[jkbuff98]

Cyclone Wrestling Twitter acct says bids are coming out tomorrow ,sorry can't link