AP Poll prediction

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qwerty

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GTO is saying with less games played (10v12) statistically there will probably have more undefeated teams. And more undefeated teams would likely leave one loss ISU out of the playoffs (hypothetically).
But should a 9-0 team get in over a 10-1 true conference champion? That is the real question.
 
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dualthreat

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Oct 8, 2008
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Yeah, what a joke this AP Poll is. Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan all ahead of us because.... well.... everyone just knows they are all better than lowly ISU without even having to play a single game yet.

These teams should not be ranked yet, and even if they are, they should not move up in the rankings without having to prove anything whatsoever yet.
The Big 10 has 14 undefeated teams. clearly the best conference in the country!
 

GTO

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Mar 25, 2014
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I don’t think you’re following what he’s saying. If ISU hypothetically ran the table and finished with one loss, GTO is saying with less games played (10v12) statistically there will probably have more undefeated teams. And more undefeated teams would likely leave one loss ISU out of the playoffs (hypothetically).
Exactly what I was saying. Not just more undefeated teams, but even more 1-loss teams whose only loss will be the conference championship game. All of those would jump a 1-loss ISU.
 

cyclones500

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Extremes from Poll Tracker this week, re: Iowa State (and voter's full ballots).

Highest rank: #10 - Brett McMurphy --- I respect how he isn’t including teams that aren’t playing yet.

Lowest: Unranked (5 voters). Among those, Pete Martini’s top 25 may be the silliest/sloppiest. Has OU 25th, UL 24th, but no ISU(?) (KSU also not ranked despite head-to-head over OU). Also: 9 of his 25 are Big Ten/Pac-12 (I can understand having Oregon, since he’s based in Salem -- but gee whiz, dude).
 

Busch__Latte

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Sep 17, 2020
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Extremes from Poll Tracker this week, re: Iowa State (and voter's full ballots).

Highest rank: #10 - Brett McMurphy --- I respect how he isn’t including teams that aren’t playing yet.

Lowest: Unranked (5 voters). Among those, Pete Martini’s top 25 may be the silliest/sloppiest. Has OU 25th, UL 24th, but no ISU(?) (KSU also not ranked despite head-to-head over OU). Also: 9 of his 25 are Big Ten/Pac-12 (I can understand having Oregon, since he’s based in Salem -- but gee whiz, dude).
That guy Pete's poll is awful. He has SMU and Arizona State ranked but not Iowa State? Ok, bud.

He's a great one, Ron has us ranked at 15 last week and unranked this week. 1-1 Tulsa? Sure why not.
 
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AuH2O

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Sep 7, 2013
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Depends on the “sexiness” of the 9-0 team. OSU, Michigan, Oregon, USC would all get in over ISU in that scenario.
Of course it depends on the SOS they have, but considering this year has eliminated mostly dog crap non-con games, a 9-0 team is probably just as, if not more worthy than a 10-1 team.

Now that the Big 10 and Pac 12 games are imminent, I don't see why people are so against ranking them. So what, keep them unranked, then scream when ISU gets jumped by Ohio State when they piss pound Nebraska? Things will shake themselves fairly well after those teams have 3-4 games played.

It's kind of like a preseason poll. It's pretty dumb and gives some teams undeserved advantages/disadvantages, but by the end of the season things shake out. Of course teams are under/over rated, but by week 10 the preseason ranking advantages or disadvantages have largely been washed out.
 

cyclonedave25

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Jul 10, 2007
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How do they choose who votes in these polls? I honestly think some voters just blindly throw darts. At least I hope they do, because otherwise they are just dumb.
 
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Neptune78

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Aug 12, 2020
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.......
Lowest: Unranked (5 voters). Among those, Pete Martini’s top 25 may be the silliest/sloppiest. Has OU 25th, UL 24th, but no ISU(?) (KSU also not ranked despite head-to-head over OU). Also: 9 of his 25 are Big Ten/Pac-12 (I can understand having Oregon, since he’s based in Salem -- but gee whiz, dude).
Agree. I've done my part to keep goofy Pete and his non-ISU buddies in the 'lowest rated' category.
 
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Busch__Latte

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How do they choose who votes in these polls? I honestly think some voters just blindly throw darts. At least I hope they do, because otherwise they are just dumb.
"Voters are chosen by the state’s sports editor or lead writer, the latter title generally given to the longest-tenured sportswriter in the state. They are approved by the AP’s supervisor in the region (Oscar Dixon in the southeast) and main office in New York."
.

"Walker indicates the voters are not given guidelines on how to rank teams. There are no unspoken tie-breakers, such as head-to-head competition, nor are voters asked to weight conferences or schedules on anything but their own judgment of strength."

This is how we get polls like Pete's
 
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cyclones500

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Ron has us ranked at 15 last week and unranked this week.
I had glanced at his ballot since he's among the five who didn't rank us, but didn't notice he had ISU 15th last week (!) ... no other movement on his list looks unusual comparing the 2 weeks. Either he mistakenly placed ISU higher than intended last week or he forgot to include on the list this week. Only reasonable explanations I can imagine, assuming every benefit of the doubt.
 

cyclones500

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Jan 29, 2010
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How do they choose who votes in these polls? I honestly think some voters just blindly throw darts. At least I hope they do, because otherwise they are just dumb.
Basic summary: Sport writers (or broadcasters) who are AP members (i.e., publication has paid membership w/ Associated Press), # of voters in each state based on # of schools in that state. typically voters are chosen by that state's AP sports editor or lead sports writer, and it's usually the longest-tenured sports writer in the state. Also has 3 (?) national writers.

Despite my nitpicking, generally speaking I think AP poll voters as a collective keep a good "pulse" and take the task seriously ... but not every voter values the same things, some outlier picks are puzzling, and I'm sure some participants are simply better at the 'ranking game' than others.