Late and a moot point now but...
I'll try to get the post-Tech pre-Arizona one out before tomorrow evening.
I'll try to get the post-Tech pre-Arizona one out before tomorrow evening.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Buffalo = #2 Michigan ; #9 Purdue
Greenville, SC = #1 Duke ; #12 Virginia
Oklahoma City = #6 Houston ; #13 Nebraska
Philadelphia = #5 Connecticut ; #11 Michigan St.
Portland = #10 Gonzaga ; #16 Kansas
San Diego = #3 Arizona ; #15 Vanderbilt
St. Louis = #7 Illinois ; #8 Iowa St.
Tampa = #4 Florida ; #14 Alabama
Current NET
Iowa State
Illinois
Michigan State
Some things really seem to be falling ISU's way. Obviously the win yesterday helps, but getting OKST back to a quad 1 was huge. Michigan State also picked up a quad 2 loss with Minnesota falling below 75 in NET.
If someone was blindly looking at these metrics, I think ISU would be ahead of BOTH Illinois and Michigan State.
Iowa State
| 8-6 | 10-0 | 2-0 | 7-0 |
| 7-7 | 5-0 | 7-0 | 5-0 |
| 8-5 | 6-1 | 7-0 | 4-0 |
Some things really seem to be falling ISU's way. Obviously the win yesterday helps, but getting OKST back to a quad 1 was huge. Michigan State also picked up a quad 2 loss with Minnesota falling below 75 in NET.
If someone was blindly looking at these metrics, I think ISU would be ahead of BOTH Illinois and Michigan State.
If the committee truly uses the WAB over everything else, we're now right in the 2 seed range after hovering in the 14/15 slots the past week or so. We are #9...Nebraska #8. I personally don't think Nebraska is in play for a 2 seed unless they get to the final. Interestingly enough, Illinois has dropped out of the top 10 on the WAB to 14th.
Why does that chart look like you scraped it off a Prodigy Internet group from 1995?
Exactly. And it may not even be metrics or results that split them. Could be what fits with location and the number 1 seeds.
I doubt they will adjust seedlines based based on location on the top 4 seeds. That wouldn't even balance the brackets as they don't use seeds to balance the bracket. They use overall seed.
Moving teams around regions definitely will happen. For example, MSU and Illinois would NOT be in the midwest as 2 seeds no matter what. If Michigan is the 1 or 2, that already puts bracket balance in a tough spot. ISU as #7 or #8 overall helps that a lot.
Everything I look at (including bracketologists on bracketmatrix) points to us being either 7 or 8 on the s-curve right now, ahead of one or both of Illinois & Michigan St. and behind UConn & Houston. Feels like if we win today there's an 85+% chance we are a two seed (small chance of 1 or 3) and if we lose we are right in that 7 through 9 on the s-curve range and its anyone's guess how that shakes out.
Have to believe a win today eliminates 3 as a possibility. Completely agree losing today locks in the 7-9 range which doesn't have much difference between the three in contention.
They one way that isn't true is if Michigan St. and Illinois both look as good as us in the Big 10 tournament (unlikely) or the committee loses their mind (slightly more likely).
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Nah, we're a definite 2 with a win, except in the heads of the random idiot bracketologists (of which there are many)
Prodigy-Wan Kenobi is a name I've not heard in a long time.
Maybe you mean old Compuserve Kenobi?
So the number 6 ranked team is a 3 seed? Makes no sense to me. Plus Illinois just lost.
Predictive rankings and resume rankings can be slightly offset from each other sometimes.
Updated after the Wisconsin loss. Illinois now has a losing record in Q1 games
Iowa State
| 8-6 | 10-0 | 2-0 | 7-0 |
| 7-8 | 5-0 | 7-0 | 5-0 |
