2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[KennyPratt42]

I love being as close to the top as possible, but I assume this is because Houston, Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska haven't played. Though one could also argue that playing one more game than Houston, Michigan State, and Nebraska isn't the worst thing in the world as long as you take care of business, which you certainly did



I don't think Iowa State could hop Houston, though a loss to West Virginia would be pretty bad. Assuming that doesn't happen, I think 8 is as high as Iowa State can get. I still hope they get there though

Houston being below Illinois and right next to us in both Kenpom and the NET Rankings, plus our head to head win, makes me feel like there is a chance they could get passed by UConn, Illinois, or ISU if they lose early and any of those three make a deep run (for UConn it would likely mean winning the tournament). But I agree a Houston win tomorrow gets them pretty close to a lock for 5 on the s-curve.

I wouldn't say 8 is our ceiling. If we beat Tech and play Arizona respectably, 7 through 9 all feel possible depending on how UConn, Mich St., and Illinois play in their tournaments. If we beat Tech and Arizona then our range feels more like 5 through 7, depending on how Houston does. An interesting wrinkle would be if we faced Houston in the Championship, it would feel hard to keep us below them if we happen to be 2-0 against them.

 

[mkadl]

I guess I’m in the minority as I don’t believe our seeding even matters at this point.

All that matters is what version of ISU shows up each game. Outside of being a 1 seed, which is for sure not happening, a 2-4 seed does not change the math much. If good ISU shows up, we could make the Final 4. If bad ISU shows up, we could lose in the Round of 32.

Even with a worst case matchup like Wisconsin, Illinois, etc, we haven’t had a single game where we played well and had a close loss. We’ve either played terribly and been unable to make up for it, or kicked ass and dominated.

In short: relax and hope it’s enjoyable. The committee has no power at this point.

Agree

 

[not-the-manager]

Houston being below Illinois and right next to us in both Kenpom and the NET Rankings, plus our head to head win, makes me feel like there is a chance they could get passed by UConn, Illinois, or ISU if they lose early and any of those three make a deep run (for UConn it would likely mean winning the tournament). But I agree a Houston win tomorrow gets them pretty close to a lock for 5 on the s-curve.

I wouldn't say 8 is our ceiling. If we beat Tech and play Arizona respectably, 7 through 9 all feel possible depending on how UConn, Mich St., and Illinois play in their tournaments. If we beat Tech and Arizona then our range feels more like 5 through 7, depending on how Houston does. An interesting wrinkle would be if we faced Houston in the Championship, it would feel hard to keep us below them if we happen to be 2-0 against them.

I hope you're right that 7 through 9 are in play with a win tomorrow. I do think we want Michigan State to lose their first game, as their second could be against Nebraska, in which case it'd be one step forward two steps back. I don't think Illinois can separate itself unless it beats Michigan. The question is if the committee would have them ahead of ISU today

 

[VeloClone]

So it's possible I could be wrong

CU dropped 6 spots with that loss. Almost like it was just a position swap.

Close, but no cigar. ASU dropped to 72 and Okie State at 73 so they both remained (for the moment) on the good side of that 75/76 divide. I was a bit worried when Okie State pissed away that game at the end last night.

So now ISU is 7-6 in Q1 and 17-6 in Q1+Q2. Good position for the Cyclones as long as other team results don't still push some of ISU's games down.

 

[VeloClone]

If you want a rooting interest for ISU right now, you could look for Dayton to stumble. Dayton has that coveted NET 75 with CU at 76. If they swap positions CU gives ISU another Q2 win.

But obviously the best thing ISU could do for themselves is keep winning. Any further wins in the tournament will be Q1, and likely Q1a. Barring a big upset, ISU would have a chance at really good Q1a wins today and tomorrow.

It would be interesting to know when the Committee has the teams locked in. Do they ignore the entire conference tournament for seeding (barring bid stealers obviously)? Do they just cut it off before the semi-finals or the final?

 

[Hoggins]

If you want a rooting interest for ISU right now, you could look for Dayton to stumble. Dayton has that coveted NET 75 with CU at 76. If they swap positions CU gives ISU another Q2 win.

But obviously the best thing ISU could do for themselves is keep winning. Any further wins in the tournament will be Q1, and likely Q1a. Barring a big upset, ISU would have a chance at really good Q1a wins today and tomorrow.

It would be interesting to know when the Committee has the teams locked in. Do they ignore the entire conference tournament for seeding (barring bid stealers obviously)? Do they just cut it off before the semi-finals or the final?

Things really lock in on Saturday. Teams can still move up or down slightly but by Saturday afternoon, the committee is like 95% done. A win today would be huge

 

[VeloClone]

Things really lock in on Saturday. Teams can still move up or down slightly but by Saturday afternoon, the committee is like 95% done. A win today would be huge

I hope you are right. I agree a win today would be huge and even a close, hard contested loss to Arizona in the SF would put the best of Cyclone BB in the forefront of the Committee's minds.

 

[simply1]

Haven’t we determined the conference tournament means little, if anything, in the higher seeds?

 

[cstrunk]

Haven’t we determined the conference tournament means little, if anything, in the higher seeds?

Little perhaps, but not nothing.

 

[NENick]

I believe the committee will be watching this game and could adjust seeding, based on result. ISU winning today is important. I don't think tomorrow makes a difference, win or lose.

 

[CychiatricWard]

We certainly deserve a 2 seed. A 3 would be a slap in the face

 

[CydeofFries]

2 weeks ago: Remember conference tournaments don't affect seeding. Beat Tech and ASU at home and we should be a 2 seed.

1 week ago: Well shoot, we're probably a three seed.

Sunday: Well maybe if we win a couple games we can be a 2 seed again.

Yesterday: if we beat Tech in the tournament we'll be locked as a 2 seed <- WE ARE HERE

Tomorrow: if we win the Big12 Tourney should we be a one seed?

Saturday Night: Oh my god we are going to be a one seed!

Selection Sunday: Wait we're a 3 seed? So I guess conference tournaments don't matter??

Repeat yearly as needed.

 

[interrobang]

Pretty much pulled back even with Houston after dropping back. The last 24hrs has been great for the computer ratings!

 

[keepngoal]

We get the 2 seed in the East with a potential S16 match up with kNU. Good?

 

[not-the-manager]

2 weeks ago: Remember conference tournaments don't affect seeding. Beat Tech and ASU at home and we should be a 2 seed.

1 week ago: Well shoot, we're probably a three seed.

Sunday: Well maybe if we win a couple games we can be a 2 seed again.

Yesterday: if we beat Tech in the tournament we'll be locked as a 2 seed <- WE ARE HERE

Tomorrow: if we win the Big12 Tourney should we be a one seed?

Saturday Night: Oh my god we are going to be a one seed!

Selection Sunday: Wait we're a 3 seed? So I guess conference tournaments don't matter??

Repeat yearly as needed.

I appreciate the humor but beating Tech by 20 if Illinois were to lose is not meaningless. This isn’t two seasons ago when there was really been no indication Iowa State was near a 1 seed but some fans thought winning the Big 12 tournament would earn one. 7-10 are very close

 

[Die4Cy]

Pretty much pulled back even with Houston after dropping back. The last 24hrs has been great for the computer ratings!

View attachment 168829

Big 12's top 3 feel significantly stronger than the Big Ten's top 3 as a group, but I'm biased.

 

[VeloClone]

2 weeks ago: Remember conference tournaments don't affect seeding. Beat Tech and ASU at home and we should be a 2 seed.

1 week ago: Well shoot, we're probably a three seed.

Sunday: Well maybe if we win a couple games we can be a 2 seed again.

Yesterday: if we beat Tech in the tournament we'll be locked as a 2 seed <- WE ARE HERE

Tomorrow: if we win the Big12 Tourney should we be a one seed?

Saturday Night: Oh my god we are going to be a one seed!

Selection Sunday: Wait we're a 3 seed? So I guess conference tournaments don't matter??

Repeat yearly as needed.

Yup.

But if we are wrong, ISU is now 8-6 in Q1 and 18-6 in Q1+Q2...

 

[VeloClone]

Big 12's top 3 feel significantly stronger than the Big Ten's top 3 as a group, but I'm biased.

I don't know, but I do know they are certainly battle tested.

 

[interrobang]

Big 12's top 3 feel significantly stronger than the Big Ten's top 3 as a group, but I'm biased.

Yeah even if you swap MSU in, still think the B12 is better.

 

[CY88CE11]

We get the 2 seed in the East with a potential S16 match up with kNU. Good?

They're going to need to prove they can win one game in the tourney before I assume they'll win two.