2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
What you say is logical but I think it depends on how much the eye test is valued because visually Iowa State just doesn't look competitive in these games. Losing big to a BYU team that has gotten blown out by everybody else since Saunders went down and to a couple of likely non-tournament teams, same to Texas Tech without their best player who just went down to TCU at home, Arizona is understandable but they looked outmatched pretty badly. It's not just the losses, these are ugly losses to people who saw the games.
Ever since the reveal came out, the Cyclones have stumbled pretty badly so is it enough to drop them from 4 to 9? I'm not sure but I'd say that they're definitely teetering on the edge of dropping to a 3.
Florida is on the opposite side of the spectrum. None of the opponents they've beaten are particularly impressive, a function of a weakened SEC this season, but they've beaten the snot out of everybody and just look the part of a 1 seed even if the computer numbers don't bear that out. Iowa State has pretty good computer numbers and better wins than Florida but they just don't look like a highly competitive team when you see the games.
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Also need to remember that the committee members are not Iowa St fans and do not follow the games as closely as us. They see W/L record, quad wins and losses, and I'm sure they follow AP rankings.
credit to @NiceMarmot in another thread, but I agree that as of today Iowa State is probably somewhere from eighth overall to tenth. Handle your business and I don't think a quarterfinal loss to Kansas would drop you further. 1. Michigan State beating Michigan and 2. Michigan State, Illinois, or Nebraska rolling through the Big Ten tournament are the only things that could change that IMHO, with the likelihood of 2. impacting seeding being much lower than 1.
No but they definitely watch the games especially as we near March, especially the nationally televised ones like the last 3 have been and it hasn't been in favor of Iowa State to say the least. I see a team that is on the bubble of a 2 to 3 seed, anywhere from 7th overall to 10th overall whereas they looked to be more like 4th-7th prior.
This is 100% where I'm at. Think we are a 3 if we don't win at least 2 in KC.
As has been mentioned repeatedly, don't count on games in KC bailing out resumes for seeding. The cake is pretty much baked by that point.
5 of the 7 ASU wins have come on the 2nd game of the Arizona road trip for the teams they have beat. Their two Utah wins are the only ones that have not come right after the other team played at Arizona.
If we beat ASU on Saturday there is zero chance we are a 4 regardless of what happens in our first round game in KC.
I've seen the committee do much worse. Until I hear we are a 2 or 3, I expect the worst from them.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I really don't see how a 4 would be in play at this point. I think we're a two with a win against ASU, and would probably be the top 3 if we lose that one.
We win Saturday we will be at worst a 3 seed.
The only difference is you play a 6 seed vs a 7 seed in the second round, and the color of jersey you wear in the Sweet 16. For me, I couldn't care less between a 2 or a 3 seed this year. 4 seed would suck as it gets very difficult to make it to the Elite 8.
Nope only real difference is you most likely are playing a P6 team in the Round of 32.
Somebody really athletic, that almost always shoots poorly from 3. Almost always!
And basically down 2 starters with Lipsey struggling to get around.
Ole Miss was a tough match up even with ISU healthy but the same could happen in a 2/7 match up.
