2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[CPG4ISU]

Its hard to argue against Sampson the last couple years though.

He should have won it in 2022 arguably, but we also finished 7-11 in conference- a huge turnaround from 0-18 but still mightve been hard to give COY.

The turnaround Otz first year was incredible, but much of that was thanks for going 13-0 in non-con. I feel like if he could have had a winning conference record they would have given it to him.

I can't believe Tang won coach of the year going 11-7 in 2023. But that goes to show how much more competitive the Big 12 is now with the additions.

If there was any year Otz deserved it was probably in 2024 going 13-5. But Sampson went 15-3 so I can see how TJ would come in a close second.

 

[not-the-manager]

I think a 30,000 foot perspective is helpful at times like this.

This team was ranked #16 in the preseason. And most people thought that seemed high, considering that ISU had lost their two best players in Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones. Turns out the preseason Big 12 ranking was spot on

Here we are on March 3, and people are melting down because this team is #6 in the country and is teetering on the 2/3 seed line.

The reality is this is not a top 10 roster, and Otz just outcoaches most of his peers.

This may technically be true, but after the kenpom top five (Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Illinois) I would say there's not much difference between the next ~10 rosters. Michigan State for example basically has Iowa State's metrics, but I've seen them in person and you want to talk about a lack of offensive skill? woof. I would still take Iowa State's roster. Michigan State is undoubtedly playing much better, which is "why they play the games"

I'm ready for things to start going their way. The 2 day turnaround against these tough caliber teams was probably rough, so hopefully they can get a reset and get back at it and show ASU the door quickly. The backloaded schedule caught up to them. I just think there is a tier of teams, then follows another obvious tier. Michigan, Duke and Arizona at the top. I haven't watched Florida to really have an opinion on them. Then the next tier is the muddied 2 seed race of Uconn, Iowa State, Purdue, Houston, Nebraska, Illinois, Kansas, Tech, and I guess Michigan state is now up there? I have not watched them to know how they have been playing. ISU just needs some confidence back and right the ship. The fanbase could really use a better March.

This paragraph says it all, I think. The top three or four being head and shoulders better than everyone else has been the case for a while now, it would be true even if Iowa State had played better the last 10 days or so. But you add in the schedule Iowa State has played, and they look even worse compared to the upper tier. While some of their issues can't be completely solved at this point, I think the schedule is undoubtedly part of the reason they've been struggling to play even close to their best. completely agree that they need something positive to put them at ease, even if that's pushing around a bad Big 12 team

 

[NYCYFan]

So instead of the 4th or 5th best teams in the country, the majority places this Cyclone team in the 7th-12th area. I can live with that.

After the Kansas & Cincinnati losses, I thought 5-2 was a realistic record over the next 7. They went 6-1, losing at TCU.
Then I saw 3-3 as a realistic final 6. I expected a loss to Houston, but beating TTech. Win Saturday and it's 3-3, 9-4 over the very challenging final 13 games.

Win Saturday and one game in the Big 12 tournament earns a 2-seed, although maybe 7th or 8th overall. I believe that's very doable.

I think a 2 might be tough now. Houston and Florida obviously are ahead, Michigan State is staking their claim as a 2 and Illinois as well. I suppose their can be argument for Iowa State to get on the 2 line but they've really hurt their case as of late. They haven't even been competitive in a lot of these losses.

 

[not-the-manager]

As I try to talk myself off the ledge, do @Sigmapolis and others agree that in the next two games Iowa State could still get back to the admittedly overemphasized top-21-in-offensive-and-defensive-efficiency profile of national champions? Or is the data too rigid at this point?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Dumb.

In "the last few weeks" they have beaten NET 7 Houston and blown out NET 15 Kansas. They have struggled against NET 13 Tech and lost at NET 23 BYU - and obviously last night at the #2 team's house. About the only game that would support your contention is the loss at NET 45 TCU. To say that they have been playing like a 6 seed is silly.

Of all of the games listed the only games that weren't within 10 points were the one last night and ISU's blow out of Kansas. And that isn't counting the @ Utah game that ISU won going away but really tells us nothing.

They have some nice wins. But they haven’t looked at all good in the losses. The Torvik game scores back that assertion up.

What truly sets the best teams apart is their consistency. The best of the best don't lose outside exceptional circumstances against one another or on the road. Then slide down the rankings to teams that can beat anybody but just can’t seem to do it every night.

A team playing like a #2 if you extrapolate their performance over the conference season doesn’t lose at TCU and bags one of BYU, Tech, and Arizona. This team is just wobbling.

Granted — I would be the first to say they can get hot in March and push for Indianapolis. They’re good enough to. But they’re hurting their chances badly right now.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

During the AZ game broadcast they already showed us projected as a 3.

 

[VeloClone]

They have some nice wins. But they haven’t looked at all good in the losses. The Torvik game scores back that assertion up.

What truly sets the best teams apart is their consistency. The best of the best don't lose outside exceptional circumstances against one another or on the road. Then slide down the rankings to teams that can beat anybody but just can’t seem to do it every night.

A team playing like a #2 if you extrapolate their performance over the conference season doesn’t lose at TCU and bags one of BYU, Tech, and Arizona. This team is just wobbling.

Granted — I would be the first to say they can get hot in March and push for Indianapolis. They’re good enough to. But they’re hurting their chances badly right now.

I don't disagree. But I contend that there is a lot of green between "the best of the best" and "playing like a 6 seed".

I agree that they are reeling, but I still think "playing like a 6 seed" is hyperbole of the first order.

 

[VeloClone]

During the AZ game broadcast they already showed us projected as a 3.

Lunardi. When you see Lundardi says something you have a better chance that it is wrong than it is right.

That being said, I have no doubt that ISU is a 3 seed right now.

 

[NENick]

They have some nice wins. But they haven’t looked at all good in the losses. The Torvik game scores back that assertion up.

What truly sets the best teams apart is their consistency. The best of the best don't lose outside exceptional circumstances against one another or on the road. Then slide down the rankings to teams that can beat anybody but just can’t seem to do it every night.

A team playing like a #2 if you extrapolate their performance over the conference season doesn’t lose at TCU and bags one of BYU, Tech, and Arizona. This team is just wobbling.

Granted — I would be the first to say they can get hot in March and push for Indianapolis. They’re good enough to. But they’re hurting their chances badly right now.

Michigan lost a home game to Wisconsin, that lost a home game to Purdue by 26.
TCU beat Wisconsin on a neutral court.
Is Wisconsin better than TCU?

Men's college basketball is crazy.

 

[CascadeClone]

This is such a weird take. By an Iowa State fan.

23-3 with a legit #1 seed resume, by every single metric and eye test imaginable. Literal proof on the court results, backed up by the record, backed up by the analytics and predictive metrics. Yet, you were the "realistic" Cyclone fan that saw through that thinking - Nah.

I would disagree on eye test. You can easily see the difference between the elite, no-doubt NBA dudes and our guys. Athleticism, physicality, whatever you want to call it.

Koa Pete made JJeff look small and skinny, yet had zero problem staying in front of him. AJ Dybansta is much taller than Tamin, and much quicker than Milan. All Arizonas bigs looked 50 lbs heavier than Buch and yet quicker. Etc.

Now, ISU's guys are really skilled. And they (usually) play together, disciplined, and in their system. That will get you a LOT of wins - gonna have 25+ this season, that's pretty effing good.

But almost everyone good they play has a physically elite dude (Dybantsa, Peterson, Pete, Anderson, et al). The best player on the floor is rarely in an ISU uniform.

 

[CycloneJoe6]

What do we think gets us back on the 2 line? Beat ASU + 2 wins in KC?

 

[madguy30]

Since February 1 we are the 57th ranked offense: 204th in FG %. The committee isn't blind to teams that are regressing. We have some time to turn it around and look pretty come Selection Sunday.

Where do they rank compared to Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Houston, etc, or just overall?

The committee wouldn't be blind to how those teams have done over the last month, right?

 

[fsanford]

I think a 2 might be tough now. Houston and Florida obviously are ahead, Michigan State is staking their claim as a 2 and Illinois as well. I suppose their can be argument for Iowa State to get on the 2 line but they've really hurt their case as of late. They haven't even been competitive in a lot of these losses.

Let's look at this logically.
On first bracket reveal ISU was a 1.

Houston, Purdue, UConn and Illinois were 2's.

Sparty a 4. Florida a 3, Zaga a 3, Tech a 3.

This was on 02/21

Florida is a 2 or 1 so that is one spot lost. No debate

ISU since then lost ,to 3 tourney teams 2 on the road and 1 at home.

Purdue lost to a Tourney team at home and a bubble team. They lost to ISU at home.

Houston lost to 2 tournament teams and beat CU nothing on their resume to pass ISU especially since ISU started as a 1. They lost to ISU


Illinois lost to UCLA and Michigan. Their last 2 games will not help them much. 2 bottom dwellers big 10 Again fair to ask why are they ahead of ISU?


Tech beat ISU and won 3 in a row 1 against maybe bubble team(Bearcats) They were a 4 do they jump to a 2? It could happen they got dinged for no Toppin first release. But they are still playing well. To win at Zona and ISU is crazy impressive . They still have to play at BYU who might need to play with their hair on fire


Sparty 3-0 with a win at Purdue. And beat a couple of teams that may or may not make the tourney. They go to Michigan last game of the year

Zaga a couple of wins against WCC teams and lost to 1 tourney team they played

So right now I would say ISU is a 2 with MSU and 1 other . UConn or Florida is a 2 lock

Data kind of points that way it seems.
Would wager ISU would be a 2 if reveal was this coming Sunday

And a 2 or 3 is not really a big thing. Unless Florida is a 2. That would suck for the 3

 

[Cyclonepride]

During the AZ game broadcast they already showed us projected as a 3.

One guy calling us a 3 does not make us a 3. I guarantee whoever that was didn't have us as a 1 when the committee announced us as a 1. The Arizona game shouldn't cause any movement whatsoever in seeding potential. I think we're maybe the 7th or 8th best when the smoke clears, as a 2.

 

[not-the-manager]

Let's look at this logically.
On first bracket reveal ISU was a 1.

Houston, Purdue, UConn and Illinois were 2's.

Sparty a 4. Florida a 3, Zaga a 3, Tech a 3.

This was on 02/21

Florida is a 2 or 1 so that is one spot lost. No debate

ISU since then lost ,to 3 tourney teams 2 on the road and 1 at home.

Purdue lost to a Tourney team at home and a bubble team. They lost to ISU at home.

Houston lost to 2 tournament teams and beat CU nothing on their resume to pass ISU especially since ISU started as a 1. They lost to ISU


Illinois lost to UCLA and Michigan. Their last 2 games will not help them much. 2 bottom dwellers big 10 Again fair to ask why are they ahead of ISU?


Tech beat ISU and won 3 in a row 1 against maybe bubble team. They were a 4 do they jump to a 2? It could they got dinged for no Toppin first release. But they are still playing well.


Sparty 3-0 with a win at Purdue. And beat a couple of teams that may or may not make the tourney. They go to Michigan last game of the year

Zaga a couple of wins against WCC teams and lost to 1 tourney team they played

So right now I would say ISU is a 2 with MSU and 1 other . UConn or Florida is a 2 lock

Data kind of points that way it seems.

This is certainly logical, and I posted in a thread the other day that some people seemed to be reacting as if the committee is going to re-seed from scratch based on the last couple weeks, which I don't think is the case. But while I think Iowa State will get some benefit of seeding inertia, I do think the committee will take into account their limping to the finish line. For instance, Izzo will always get a brand boost, and they're once again playing some of their best ball in March. If the season ended today and it were down to those teams for the last 2 seed, I think Michigan State would get it. My gut says with Iowa State's Q1 record they'll be a 3

 

[dafarmer]

During the AZ game broadcast they already showed us projected as a 3.

Saw a 4 seed.

 

[cyclonestunners]

Since February 1 we are the 57th ranked offense: 204th in FG %. The committee isn't blind to teams that are regressing. We have some time to turn it around and look pretty come Selection Sunday.

It think we are both saying the same thing? I was saying this is wjy were not getting the nod over purdue

 

[fsanford]

This is certainly logical, and I posted in a thread the other day that some people seemed to be reacting as if the committee is going to re-seed from scratch based on the last couple weeks, which I don't think is the case. But while I think Iowa State will get some benefit of seeding inertia, I do think the committee will take into account their limping to the finish line. For instance, Izzo will always get a brand boost, and they're once again playing some of their best ball in March. If the season ended today and it were down to those teams for the last 2 seed, I think Michigan State would get it. My gut says with Iowa State's Q1 record they'll be a 3

You could be right. MSU has to.play Michigan how they play them will have an impact


So let's take MSU out of it who besides Tech isn't limping to finish line?

 

[AgronAlum]

Bracket Matrix has us as the last 2 seed. I can imagine that might change as more brackets get updated and we drop to the 3 line.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[fsanford]

Saw a 4 seed.

Use this...

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025