2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[aeroclone]

Just beat UCF pretty easily who was coming off a victory over KU.

Though that may say more about KU than UCF. KU just needed a major miracle to beat TCU in the Phog.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I am NOT trying to take Sig's job, but I am just sitting at home (now that I am retired) and thought I would post this.

View attachment 165650View attachment 165651View attachment 165652View attachment 165654

Stealing all my likes.

Would we tolerate somebody jumping on @CycloneRulzzz sacred duty of starting the game threads?

Feels like a top 8 right now that will be fighting over the 1 vs 2 seeds.

Michigan
Arizona
Iowa St.
Purdue
UConn
Duke
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga

Its possible Houston, BYU, Michigan, or Illinois could make a run during conference play, but feels pretty safe the four one seeds will come out of the above 8 teams.

Unless Michigan falls apart they are getting close to a lock. The winner of the Big 12 is very likely to be a one seed. The remaining five teams our resume and metrics stack up pretty well at this point. Feels like 4 losses will be the bubble for getting a one seed, 3 or less is a virtual lock.

Every team on Torvik with a >1% of a #1 seed right now.

 

[qwerty]

Stealing all my likes.

Would we tolerate somebody jumping on @CycloneRulzzz sacred duty of starting the game threads?





Every team on Torvik with a >1% of a #1 seed right now.

View attachment 165669

I bow to my master and accept my lashes as just punishment.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I bow to my master and accept my lashes as just punishment.

I'm joking.

But happy to still administer the lashes.

If that's your thing...

(You mentioned being retired and well I have a full-time job and...)

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/threads/want-to-go-to-the-ku-game-in-lawrence.296763/#post-10206593

(I'm very much not retired and can't always get to these emails quickly now.)

 

[qwerty]

I'm joking.

But happy to still administer the lashes.

If that's your thing...

(You mentioned being retired and well I have a full-time job and...)

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/threads/want-to-go-to-the-ku-game-in-lawrence.296763/#post-10206593

(I'm very much not retired and can't always get to these emails quickly now.)

It is NOT my thing and congrats on your growing chaos. I sit at home alone (wife still works) so just shared after that popped into my emails.

 

[CycloneErik]

Glass half empty, they've been pretty shite the first 10 minutes of games:

WV - down 4 at 10 minute mark
HCU - up 1 at the 8 mm
Iowa - down 13 at 7 mm
Purdue - down 5 at 10 mm
Syracuse - down 2 at 9 mm
Baylor - down 8 at 7 mm

Then blew the doors off and won relatively comfortably.

Can't be having bad starts like that against top opponents. Gotta get that fixed if you want to make the FF.

Well, it certainly looks like we can. We're undefeated.
That time for us is about setting the tone. You'll notice after that stretch that our opponents start to speed themselves up, turnovers rise, and we go on runs. That's not an accident.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[EnkAMania]

Glass half empty, they've been pretty shite the first 10 minutes of games:

WV - down 4 at 10 minute mark
HCU - up 1 at the 8 mm
Iowa - down 13 at 7 mm
Purdue - down 5 at 10 mm
Syracuse - down 2 at 9 mm
Baylor - down 8 at 7 mm

Then blew the doors off and won relatively comfortably.

Can't be having bad starts like that against top opponents. Gotta get that fixed if you want to make the FF.

Bring in Jimmy for the pre game speech.

 

[Cyballz]

Just needed The Defibrillator to revive the offense in 5 of those games.

 

[Cyclonepride]

 

[bawbie]

Holy crap, that is insane. I love how the upper right contains "analytical darlings" and "Iowa State". I'm looking forward to Hammer's next Trapezoid of Excellence update too.

One thing to watch is that our steal rate has dropped off over the last 5 games (2 conf opponents, sure, but also the 3 holiday cupcakes). The first 10 games we had more steals than turnovers as a team in 7 of them, but zero of the last five.
And we've fallen below 1 in the all important (to me) Steal:Turnover ratio (146 steals, 152 turnovers on the season).

I don't think it means much - but it would be nice to have another game where we get the opponent in hell and force 20+ turnovers.

 

[Sigmapolis]

 

[Letterkenny]

Holy crap, that is insane. I love how the upper right contains "analytical darlings" and "Iowa State". I'm looking forward to Hammer's next Trapezoid of Excellence update too.

One thing to watch is that our steal rate has dropped off over the last 5 games (2 conf opponents, sure, but also the 3 holiday cupcakes). The first 10 games we had more steals than turnovers as a team in 7 of them, but zero of the last five.
And we've fallen below 1 in the all important (to me) Steal:Turnover ratio (146 steals, 152 turnovers on the season).

I don't think it means much - but it would be nice to have another game where we get the opponent in hell and force 20+ turnovers.

I think it's a good sign that we didn't really turnover Baylor or West Virginia that much, but still pounded WV and won fairly comfortably at Baylor. Felt like in past years, if we weren't getting turnovers, we gave up a lot of layups or wide open 3s. The defense just seems a lot more stout this year. We can back off on the aggression a little if the turnovers aren't happening, wall up and force bad shots.

 

[herbicide]

I think it's a good sign that we didn't really turnover Baylor or West Virginia that much, but still pounded WV and won fairly comfortably at Baylor. Felt like in past years, if we weren't getting turnovers, we gave up a lot of layups or wide open 3s. The defense just seems a lot more stout this year. We can back off on the aggression a little if the turnovers aren't happening, wall up and force bad shots.

TLDR version is we can win in multiple ways

 

[GoodOleDays]

This chart shows Houston is still Houston and will be as scary as ever once their freshman start clicking and they convert better

People putting them in the same tier as BYU below ISU and Zona are making a classic mistake doubting Sampson

 

[cyfan92]

View attachment 165634
This is the consistency of an elite team. We’ve never had a chart that looks like this.

Looks a lot like this national champ team...

 

[VeloClone]

Well, it certainly looks like we can. We're undefeated.
That time for us is about setting the tone. You'll notice after that stretch that our opponents start to speed themselves up, turnovers rise, and we go on runs. That's not an accident.

You have a point. Our defense can be a lot like an option, triple option, or veer offense. It may not be very effective at first but over time the pressure on the other team starts to make cracks and those cracks continue to grow until the dam breaks.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Looks a lot like this national champ team...
View attachment 165680

Who is that?

 

[BCClone]

Still 6 undefeated teams. I'll be honest, really thought Nebraska and Iowa State would drop this week as they had really tough road tests but passed.

I dont see Michigan or Arizona losing anytime soon as they have easy schedules the rest of Jamuary.

Still liking Tang as your coach?

 

[GoodOleDays]

Looks a lot like this national champ team...
View attachment 165680

What are the stars?