2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[ForeverIowan]

If I’m wagering I think 4 losses.

Lose two of @AZ, @ BYU, @KU.

Lose one respectable one at home (Probaly Houston or Kansas).

One dud of a game that surprises us or key player out.

If we win at th Phog in January it’s possible we go until mid February undefeated.

I think the conference schedule is extremely favorable. Especially our home schedule. IMO, the four best teams in the conference are Iowa State, Arizona, Houston and BYU. We only play Arizona, Houston and BYU each once. That is huge.

I think this team has a great chance to run the table at Hilton this year (see home schedule below).

West Virginia
Okie St
UCF
Colorado
Baylor
Kansas
Houston
TTech
ASU

 

[Sigmapolis]

Remember when the fanbase wanted the transfer from South Dakota State (William Kyle) and we "settled" for Joshua Jefferson? I too was crushed when we "missed" on Oscar Cluff and had to "settle" for Blake Buchanan. Im good never questioning the staff in terms of their recruits again. Think they know what they are doing. Our frontcourt is incredible!

I'm on the lower end of the continuum for my interest in recruiting (even rapid-fire spring transfer recruiting in basketball, which is recruiting coverage distilled down into a fentanyl version).

Even then, missing on Cluff but landing Buchanan didn't bother me too much. We don't land many P5 transfers, and I believed CW and Blum when they said Buchanan was a great system fit.

And he really is. He's everything you'd ever want in a TJ big man.

The number of times teams are going to run high ball screens against the Cyclones this year, get a switch of Buchanan onto the guard, the guard thinking he'll just be able to drive around the opposing center, and finding he can't do it ("this ******* guy again get out of my ******* way!") amuses me greatly.

 

[madguy30]

That's your own fault for pushing high expectations on the team when we have seen great play but haven't hit conference play yet or seen how these freshmen's legs hold up. Can we finish with like three losses? 100% yes. But I'd rather err on the side of caution for my own mental health so if we do hit a rough patch I don't immediately think it's a disappointment.

We have road games at Baylor, at Kansas, at Okie State, at TCU, at BYU, at Arizona and home against Houston, Kansas and Texas Tech. All of those games are winnable if we play our best game like Purdue. All of those games are losable if we play like we did against Iowa first half. That's nine games...split the difference. That's like 4-5 losses.

Yeah playing the 'they should only lose X games because of right now' rarely works out.

Things change, some teams get better or gel later, there's bad matchups etc. Okie State is currently 9-0. They can't be bad and have had bad teams be terrible matchups for ISU recently.

If ISU drops a few and 'drops' to a like a 3 seed I hope people are able to enjoy it.

 

[rosshm16]

I don't worry that much about seeds. After the first round, typically every team you play is a good/hot team no matter your seed.

 

[CychiatricWard]

I don't worry that much about seeds. After the first round, typically every team you play is a good/hot team no matter your seed.

Yes and no. Historically speaking getting that 1 seed increases your chances of a deep run a ton.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don't worry that much about seeds. After the first round, typically every team you play is a good/hot team no matter your seed.

Avoiding another #1 seed until the third weekend or a #2 or #3 seed until the regional finals has tremendous value. There's a pretty substantial drop after ~15 in most years in team quality.

Get as deep as you can before you have to start playing 50-50 games.

I'd much rather see a #5 for the third game than a #2. This team has proven it is good enough to think big about setting itself up for a deep tournament run rather than just being happy to be there.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Percentage to make Final 4 by seed:

1 - 39.7%
2 - 20.2%
3 - 10.5%
4 - 10.5%
5 - 5.6%
6 - 1.9%

Historically speaking, you essentially cut your chances in HALF of making a final 4 with each seed line you drop. Would be enormous to grab a 1 seed.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Percentage to make Final 4 by seed:

1 - 39.7%
2 - 20.2%
3 - 10.5%
4 - 10.5%
5 - 5.6%
6 - 1.9%

Historically speaking, you essentially cut your chances in HALF of making a final 4 with each seed line you drop. Would be enormous to grab a 1 seed.

Hard to know how much of that is the easier path afforded by a higher seed and how much it is the #1 seeds just being the best teams in the first place. Bit of Calvinist predetermination going there.

 

[cyclones500]

Percentage to make Final 4 by seed:

1 - 39.7%
2 - 20.2%
3 - 10.5%
4 - 10.5%
5 - 5.6%
6 - 1.9%

Historically speaking, you essentially cut your chances in HALF of making a final 4 with each seed line you drop. Would be enormous to grab a 1 seed.

Historically/statistically, if you aspire to realistic F4, a 1 seed definitely doesn't hurt.

A 2 might be equally promising if the situation is "favorable," involving first weekend placement, regional placement + the 1 in that region.

A 3 or even 4 seed doesn't put a team out of equation, but even more factors make the path harder.

 

[mark82]

Yes and no. Historically speaking getting that 1 seed increases your chances of a deep run a ton.

unless you are Virginia...

 

[dahliaclone]

unless you are Virginia...

Or Purdue

 

[cyclones500]

unless you are Virginia...

Or Purdue

Even beyond the 16-over-1, something that didn't occur for 30+ years after the 64-team format, 1 seed can be vulnerable to first-weekend exit in the 8/9 game. I tend to expect it at least once every two seasons.

And at least one 1 has bounced before Final Four in all but two(?) tournaments since '85. Getting two into final weekend is fairly standard (with exceptions).

Doing this off top of my head, without checking archives.

 

[WastedTalent]

That's your own fault for pushing high expectations on the team when we have seen great play but haven't hit conference play yet or seen how these freshmen's legs hold up. Can we finish with like three losses? 100% yes. But I'd rather err on the side of caution for my own mental health so if we do hit a rough patch I don't immediately think it's a disappointment.

We have road games at Baylor, at Kansas, at Okie State, at TCU, at BYU, at Arizona and home against Houston, Kansas and Texas Tech. All of those games are winnable if we play our best game like Purdue. All of those games are losable if we play like we did against Iowa first half. That's nine games...split the difference. That's like 4-5 losses.

Exactly. And I'll say if there is criticism of Otz, it's that he has underwhelmed in February. Luckily the team usually gets to turned around, and has a good March, but there has certainly been some pretty sketchy Februarys.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Exactly. And I'll say if there is criticism of Otz, it's that he has underwhelmed in February. Luckily the team usually gets to turned around, and has a good March, but there has certainly been some pretty sketchy Februarys.

I think being 9-10 deep will help that quite a bit. I love the intensity and effort that his teams put out, but it does have to wear on a thinner rotation.

 

[CycloneErik]

Avoiding another #1 seed until the third weekend or a #2 or #3 seed until the regional finals has tremendous value. There's a pretty substantial drop after ~15 in most years in team quality.

Get as deep as you can before you have to start playing 50-50 games.

I'd much rather see a #5 for the third game than a #2. This team has proven it is good enough to think big about setting itself up for a deep tournament run rather than just being happy to be there.

This is exactly how people should see it.
Sure, you've got to play those games at some point, but playing them in the Elite Eight or Final Four makes a huge difference compared to the round of 32 or whatever.

 

[twincyties]

Especially this year when there seems to be a small group of elite teams emerging. For example, I think you really want to avoid Michigan, Arizona, and Duke for as long as you possibly can.

 

[VeloClone]

Especially this year when there seems to be a small group of elite teams emerging. For example, I think you really want to avoid Michigan, Arizona, and Duke for as long as you possibly can.

And Iowa State. Nobody wants to play those Dawgs...

 

[Letterkenny]

I think being 9-10 deep will help that quite a bit. I love the intensity and effort that his teams put out, but it does have to wear on a thinner rotation.

The only guy I worry about getting gassed is Jefferson. We've leaned on him a ton to start the season, especially the games Lipsey was out. He looked dead late in the game against Iowa and we were running our whole offense through him. He also has to do a ton defensively. Guarding on the perimeter, battling with bigger guys down low and is expected to be our leading rebounder every night. Yesterday's game was nice where he didn't have to do as much. It'd be nice to get Pleta back and maybe reduce Jefferson's minutes for these last two non-conference games.

Lipsey looks fresh right now. Toure has endless energy. Buchanan doesn't play heavy minutes. Momcilovic isn't asked to do as much as the other guys defensively, so I'm not worried about him. Batemon's defense is also looking good so he can give Lipsey and Toure more of a break.

 

[MJ271]

The only guy I worry about getting gassed is Jefferson. We've leaned on him a ton to start the season, especially the games Lipsey was out. He looked dead late in the game against Iowa and we were running our whole offense through him. He also has to do a ton defensively. Guarding on the perimeter, battling with bigger guys down low and is expected to be our leading rebounder every night. Yesterday's game was nice where he didn't have to do as much. It'd be nice to get Pleta back and maybe reduce Jefferson's minutes for these last two non-conference games.

Lipsey looks fresh right now. Toure has endless energy. Buchanan doesn't play heavy minutes. Momcilovic isn't asked to do as much as the other guys defensively, so I'm not worried about him. Batemon's defense is also looking good so he can give Lipsey and Toure more of a break.

The minutes yesterday were kind of interesting. Jefferson got a well-deserved semi-rest with only 22 minutes. Batemon played 21, the second-highest number of the season for him. (Highest was 28 vs. Alcorn St.)

I think that Batemon minutes number has to do a lot with your last sentence. It seems to me that Otz is hoping that Batemon can be the point-of-attack defender at least some of the time when Toure goes to the bench, to help Lipsey reduce wear and tear and stay in his opportunistic off-ball spot that he plays when Toure is in. Shot-making from Batemon would be a big bonus on top of that defensive role, which clearly didn't materialize yesterday. But I appreciate that he had the confidence to keep shooting, even when it wasn't going in. He also had some nice passes, if I remember right.

 

[twincyties]

The minutes yesterday were kind of interesting. Jefferson got a well-deserved semi-rest with only 22 minutes. Batemon played 21, the second-highest number of the season for him. (Highest was 28 vs. Alcorn St.)

I think that Batemon minutes number has to do a lot with your last sentence. It seems to me that Otz is hoping that Batemon can be the point-of-attack defender at least some of the time when Toure goes to the bench, to help Lipsey reduce wear and tear and stay in his opportunistic off-ball spot that he plays when Toure is in. Shot-making from Batemon would be a big bonus on top of that defensive role, which clearly didn't materialize yesterday. But I appreciate that he had the confidence to keep shooting, even when it wasn't going in. He also had some nice passes, if I remember right.

Totally agree. At this point, it looks like Lipsey's bump in offensive production and his efficiency on that end of the floor is due largely in part to Toure taking on responsibility of guarding the other teams' best on the defensive end. If Batemon can give some positive minutes and at least be a threat offensively that is a huge lift for our team.

To that point, I think Pleta is more important that we realized. We do not have the depth in the front court that we do in the backcourt. Him giving solid minutes - nothing flashy, but no serious lapses - can damn well be the difference in a battle come March or April.