2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Exactly. And I'll say if there is criticism of Otz, it's that he has underwhelmed in February. Luckily the team usually gets to turned around, and has a good March, but there has certainly been some pretty sketchy Februarys.

Depth and injuries has had a lot to do with that. Just my opinion here but this team is built different.
 
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Totally agree. At this point, it looks like Lipsey's bump in offensive production and his efficiency on that end of the floor is due largely in part to Toure taking on responsibility of guarding the other teams' best on the defensive end. If Batemon can give some positive minutes and at least be a threat offensively that is a huge lift for our team.

To that point, I think Pleta is more important that we realized. We do not have the depth in the front court that we do in the backcourt. Him giving solid minutes - nothing flashy, but no serious lapses - can damn well be the difference in a battle come March or April.
Yeah, Pleta is surprisingly good and surprisingly important. Buchanan is a revelation, but I'm not sure he can go full tilt for 30+ minutes
 
The only guy I worry about getting gassed is Jefferson. We've leaned on him a ton to start the season, especially the games Lipsey was out. He looked dead late in the game against Iowa and we were running our whole offense through him. He also has to do a ton defensively. Guarding on the perimeter, battling with bigger guys down low and is expected to be our leading rebounder every night. Yesterday's game was nice where he didn't have to do as much. It'd be nice to get Pleta back and maybe reduce Jefferson's minutes for these last two non-conference games.

Lipsey looks fresh right now. Toure has endless energy. Buchanan doesn't play heavy minutes. Momcilovic isn't asked to do as much as the other guys defensively, so I'm not worried about him. Batemon's defense is also looking good so he can give Lipsey and Toure more of a break.

Heise is also chewing up a ton of minutes. He's #4 on the team.

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Tamin would probably be #1 or #2 without the injury, but I am enjoying keeping him fresh rather than running him ragged by offloading some of his duties to Toure, Heise, and Batemon.

If you're looking for weaknesses in the roster construction, a relative lack of front court depth is going to be one of them. Buchanan and Jefferson are great but you can wear them down. Pleta has had his moments but is a step down and is currently hurt. Mulder is for "in case of emergency" use only.
 
Yeah, Pleta is surprisingly good and surprisingly important. Buchanan is a revelation, but I'm not sure he can go full tilt for 30+ minutes
Agree. He is great when he's out there, but in certain match ups he's going to get worn down and/or in foul trouble (the latter often follows the former). Being able to sub him out and get a breather without a huge drop off is critically important.
 
Heise is also chewing up a ton of minutes. He's #4 on the team.

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Tamin would probably be #1 or #2 without the injury, but I am enjoying keeping him fresh rather than running him ragged by offloading some of his duties to Toure, Heise, and Batemon.

If you're looking for weaknesses in the roster construction, a relative lack of front court depth is going to be one of them. Buchanan and Jefferson are great but you can wear them down. Pleta has had his moments but is a step down and is currently hurt. Mulder is for "in case of emergency" use only.
It's hard to imagine being able to recruit a bench 5 that is better than Pleta (unless you're just throwing lots of money around). He has gotten better game after game. I agree Mulder is not there yet, but I hope he can improve enough to be able to catch spot minutes later in the Big 12 season.
 
It's hard to imagine being able to recruit a bench 5 that is better than Pleta (unless you're just throwing lots of money around). He has gotten better game after game. I agree Mulder is not there yet, but I hope he can improve enough to be able to catch spot minutes later in the Big 12 season.
Mulder is who he is, he's not going to magically become playable in the next 3 weeks. He's here for depth and only going to play in tough games if we have injuries or foul trouble.
 
Mulder is who he is, he's not going to magically become playable in the next 3 weeks. He's here for depth and only going to play in tough games if we have injuries or foul trouble.
Athletically, sure, but he's playing a completely new system, and it is reasonable to expect that he may catch on to some of the intricacies of what we run over the span of the season.
 
Mulder is who he is, he's not going to magically become playable in the next 3 weeks. He's here for depth and only going to play in tough games if we have injuries or foul trouble.
Good energy, but undersized for backing up Buchanan. Pleta has passed him by and will be a solid backup, along with several minutes a game with Jefferson at the 5. I hope Mulder gets some minutes these next couple games before conference season begins.
 
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Mulder is who he is, he's not going to magically become playable in the next 3 weeks. He's here for depth and only going to play in tough games if we have injuries or foul trouble.

My thoughts, too -- I'm not trying to trash Mulder here. He was brought in for a specific role, and the constraints @Cyclonepride brings up about how much recruiting energy and money you can put into your third big man definitely apply. If anything we were lucky to find a guy with as much playing experience as he has (even if it was in the Horizon) who was a local boy willing to take this role on the cheap.

But he's close to a finished product as a player. He is who he is.

Pleta has some very high long-term potential given his size and skill if they can keep him, keep getting him stronger and working him in practice against Jefferson and Buchanan, and keep him healthy.
 
Good energy, but undersized for backing up Buchanan. Pleta has passed him by and will be a solid backup, along with several minutes a game with Jefferson at the 5. I hope Mulder gets some minutes these next couple games before conference season begins.
Yeah, it's not like Mulder is bad, it's that Buchanan is just such a huge factor that it is very noticeable when he goes out.
 
It's hard to imagine being able to recruit a bench 5 that is better than Pleta (unless you're just throwing lots of money around). He has gotten better game after game. I agree Mulder is not there yet, but I hope he can improve enough to be able to catch spot minutes later in the Big 12 season.
There is a large difference in our defense when Mulder comes in against even programs like Eastern Illinois. He’s laterally poor and undersized and that will become even more glaring in conference games. There isn’t any “I hope he can improve” to it. Ideally these are types of guys we aren’t needing to roster in the future.
 
There is a large difference in our defense when Mulder comes in against even programs like Eastern Illinois. He’s laterally poor and undersized and that will become even more glaring in conference games. There isn’t any “I hope he can improve” to it. Ideally these are types of guys we aren’t needing to roster in the future.
I kind of disagree with not needing guys like Mulder on the roster. You've got to fill out the roster and have practice bodies, along with for blowout minutes. I don't think you pay out much in NIL for them and they probably come and go annually, but there is a need.
 
I kind of disagree with not needing guys like Mulder on the roster. You've got to fill out the roster and have practice bodies, along with for blowout minutes. I don't think you pay out much in NIL for them and they probably come and go annually, but there is a need.
I agree that he is good to have on the roster but also agree with the previous poster that he is a major drop off when he's in the game. I do not see him being realistically playable in conference season; not even in foul trouble situations. I re-watched the last couple of games and I am confident in saying that Pleta is not just a 'nice to have' sub for Buchanan, but he's critical to the team - even in limited minutes. It is crucial he gets healthy and back into the rotation ASAP.
 
I kind of disagree with not needing guys like Mulder on the roster. You've got to fill out the roster and have practice bodies, along with for blowout minutes. I don't think you pay out much in NIL for them and they probably come and go annually, but there is a need.
This. Mulder is below average and he's the emergency depth piece in the frontcourt (Although I wish we saw more Jefferson at the 5 in those situations where Buchannan and Pleta are out). Mulder was probably a cheap addition on a sweetheart NIL deal for an in-state kid so we're probably getting fair value from him.

Getting emergency depth pieces at a lower price is key for ISU to maximize retaining returning star players.
 
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Exactly. And I'll say if there is criticism of Otz, it's that he has underwhelmed in February. Luckily the team usually gets to turned around, and has a good March, but there has certainly been some pretty sketchy Februarys.

The sample size is small, but I don't know that I would say that is anything consistent.

The first couple years, there was a factor of talent level running into reality. TJs teams have tended to come together early and rack up noncon success, but those first couple years had a ceiling they ran into as other teams grew throughout the season and as we got onto the back half of the double round robin. That first year especially maxed out what they could be but it was limited.

By year 3 we had a team that could avoid that (the 24 team didn't have a February slump and arguably should have gotten a 1 seed) and year 4 had injury issues going on.

Never know if injury issues will bite us again in a major way, hopefully not, but this team seems to have the pieces to be the most complete team TJ has had yet.
 
TBF, it's kind of hard to celebrate the presidency of James Buchanan.

James Buchanan’s presidency (1857–1861) is generally judged harshly because it immediately preceded the Civil War and failed to prevent secession. Still, historians do point to a limited set of accomplishments, mostly outside the central slavery crisis.


Notable Accomplishments of the Buchanan Administration​

1. Expansion of U.S. Territory (Indirectly)

  • Gadsden Purchase implementation: While negotiated under Franklin Pierce, Buchanan oversaw its administration, solidifying U.S. control of southern Arizona and New Mexico.
  • Continued American influence and claims in the Pacific, especially regarding future expansion.

2. Foreign Policy Successes

Buchanan was more effective internationally than domestically.

  • Improved relations with Great Britain
    • Helped stabilize tensions left over from Central America and border disputes.
    • Built on the Clayton–Bulwer Treaty framework, easing rivalry over canal routes.
  • Paraguay Expedition (1858–59)
    • A U.S. naval show of force compelled Paraguay to apologize and pay compensation after an attack on an American vessel.
    • Seen as a successful assertion of American diplomatic and commercial rights without war.
  • Opened trade with Japan (continued)
    • Expanded upon Commodore Perry’s earlier treaties, helping establish formal diplomatic relations.

3. Admission of New States

  • Minnesota (1858)
  • Oregon (1859)
    These admissions continued westward growth, though slavery-related tensions influenced both processes.

4. Infrastructure and Economic Stability

  • The administration navigated the Panic of 1857, a severe economic downturn.
    • Buchanan opposed large-scale federal intervention, consistent with Democratic orthodoxy.
    • While controversial, the economy began to recover by 1859.
  • Supported limited infrastructure improvements, particularly those aiding western settlement.

5. Judicial Appointments

  • Appointed Nathan Clifford to the Supreme Court.
  • While not always viewed positively today, Buchanan believed the Court (not Congress) should resolve the slavery issue—reflecting his constitutional philosophy.

What Buchanan and His Supporters Claimed as Achievements​

  • Maintenance of peace during his term (no civil war broke out while he was president).
  • Defense of states’ rights and constitutional limits on executive power.
  • Belief that slavery would eventually resolve itself through legal and judicial means.

Why His Presidency Is Still Rated Poorly​

Despite these points:

  • He supported the pro-slavery Lecompton Constitution in Kansas.
  • Took no effective action against secession, arguing the Constitution gave him no authority to stop it.
  • Failed to unify the nation or prepare it for the crisis that followed.

Bottom Line

Buchanan’s accomplishments were real but modest—mainly in foreign policy and territorial administration. His failure to confront the slavery crisis and prevent disunion overwhelmingly defines his legacy.
 
I kind of disagree with not needing guys like Mulder on the roster. You've got to fill out the roster and have practice bodies, along with for blowout minutes. I don't think you pay out much in NIL for them and they probably come and go annually, but there is a need.
Next year should have solid depth at 5 if we retain Buchanan and Pleta. Dorian Rinaldo-Komlan looks like he'll have good shot at cracking the rotation early.

Freshman recruiting seems to be the ideal way to add depth for low cost because of the higher upside and this program might just now be getting into better position to do that
 
There is a large difference in our defense when Mulder comes in against even programs like Eastern Illinois. He’s laterally poor and undersized and that will become even more glaring in conference games. There isn’t any “I hope he can improve” to it. Ideally these are types of guys we aren’t needing to roster in the future.
Not only that, offensively he seems to have really poor touch around the basket.
 

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