2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Playing NCAA teams only on their home floors is worse than getting a chance to get one back at home.
Depends on perspective, I guess. I was definitely wrong, though. I thought I had dug into it a few weeks ago and it was bad. Turns out it was pretty average.

To try and win a regular season title, playing the top teams only once is huge.
 
We are #22 in the country for in-conference strength of schedule, these numbers do take into account conference tournament. We have been #1 in the country in that stat the last two years so its certainly down some, but far from being really weak.

Do they take the 20 conference games into account when rating that? Hope we do go down to 18 games, no reason to handicap our conference from our own structure.
 
Depends on perspective, I guess. I was definitely wrong, though. I thought I had dug into it a few weeks ago and it was bad. Turns out it was pretty average.

To try and win a regular season title, playing the top teams only once is huge.
Playing them only at home is huger(?) than playing them only at their house.
 
Playing them only at home is huger(?) than playing them only at their house.
Been trying to figure out how I would draw it up. If you need to go 19-1 like Houston, definitely. If you think 3 or 4 losses wins the league, I might prefer to play the best couple teams only on the road.
 
Do they take the 20 conference games into account when rating that? Hope we do go down to 18 games, no reason to handicap our conference from our own structure.
I think the difficulty of each game gets a rating (with 0 being close to the average game difficulty for all D1 games) and then the ratings are averaged. So it wouldn't take into account playing more or less conference games.
 
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If you're changing seeding based on a conference tournament game, you haven't been listening to the committee the last couple years.
Wisconsin is currently 18th in NET. They would need to move up almost 10 spots to get ahead of us. This "bracketologist" remember they got blown out by Penn St at home less than a week ago?
 
Could you update this with addition of the "near-loss" at Tech? (Keep all other flips the same).

Drops you to a #3 seed. That Tech win was huge in hindsight --

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Honestly, if we had beat Arizona, I think we beat Kansas State and possibly win at KU. That game had one ***** of a hangover for this team.

I don't rue those two games as much as I do Auburn and the OT games.

Kansas St. was on quite the bender at the time. They were finally playing up to their ample level of talent. It was bound to happen sometime. Of course they were flying too close to the sun.

We almost never win in Phog Allen. I never expected to.
 
Wisconsin is currently 18th in NET. They would need to move up almost 10 spots to get ahead of us. This "bracketologist" remember they got blown out by Penn St at home less than a week ago?


I think this site is #1 on bracket matrix.. They have Wisconsin as the #1 four seed and ISU the last 3 seed heading into today's games..

A 30 point blowout of a Q1 team on a neutral site may swing us to the 4 line. Keep in mind the Top 16 reveal a month ago was VERY high on A&M
 

I think this site is #1 on bracket matrix.. They have Wisconsin as the #1 four seed and ISU the last 3 seed heading into today's games..

A 30 point blowout of a Q1 team on a neutral site may swing us to the 4 line. Keep in mind the Top 16 reveal a month ago was VERY high on A&M
A&M will be a 4, they have fallen apart the last 3 or 4 weeks.
 
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Just out of curiousity, how much do you think AI is used this year for creating the official bracket? Seems like you could feed in all the criteria and metrics and use different AI tools to spit out an initial bracket, then the committee just has to finesse a bit from that. Not advocating, just wondering as AI has not been as prominent in previous years...
 
Drops you to a #3 seed. That Tech win was huge in hindsight --

View attachment 145261



I don't rue those two games as much as I do Auburn and the OT games.

Kansas St. was on quite the bender at the time. They were finally playing up to their ample level of talent. It was bound to happen sometime. Of course they were flying too close to the sun.

We almost never win in Phog Allen. I never expected to.
Yeah, I'd definitely rather have those, but in terms of momentum, I think those were both way more gettable IMO if Arizona doesn't steal that one with a circus shot. Just seemed to stun the team for KSU, and then going to KU on a losing streak didn't help.
 

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