2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

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I was hoping someone knowledgeable would chime in. I don't even think I knew Silver did sports ratings until today, and figured there's at least one major factor behind his ratings seeming to be an outlier (ISU, UConn, Michigan State and St. John's in top 5). But it shocked me so thought I'd see if anyone knew why

Imagine two teams play the same schedule.

One team goes undefeated but keeps on winning squeakers (think the Chiefs pre-SB this year).

One team obliterates 95% of its opponents but has one or two bad games.

Obviously the undefeated team deserves a regular season championship, a higher seed, and being lauded for its accomplishments. But which team is worse in the computer model...?

The team with a few losses. On average, they've played at a higher level even with the bumps.

Vegas would have them favored over the undefeated team, too.

This way is a more realistic way to look at sports like football and basketball where margins of victory tell you so much more than mere win/loss. But under an Elo rating system, the undefeated team is going to keep going up and up and up while the other team is going to take a few dings in its ratings.

Vegas would laugh and try to exploit the arbitrage presented.

Elo has its merits. It was developed decades ago, it is easy to calculate, and it works very well for any sort of contest where readymade and objective score data doesn't really exist outside of win/loss splits (mostly strategy games, including videogames), and it works well with very large sample sizes.

College basketball just doesn't work the same way.

Elo throws out a lot of data (scores) and college basketball only gives you a short season (31 games plus postseason) with 364 teams with very few of the 66,066 theoretical matchups ever being played. You need a system that can worth with smaller sample sizes and make more background inferences.
 
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VeloClone

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How about another update:

Iowa State NET 9 (3rd in Big 12 – UH 3, TTU 7)

Overall: 22-7 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 12-6

NET SOS: 39, NET NonCon SOS: 99

Q1 6-5
..Q1a 2-4 (1 N Auburn L-2, 3 A UH L-9, 7 A TTU W+OT, 10 A UA L-OT, 10 H UA W+17, 20 A KU L-17)
..Q1b 4-1 (48 A WVU L-7, 20 H KU W+17, 22 H Marquette W+11, 65 A ASU W+15, 67 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 9-1
..Q2a 5-1 (32 H BU W+19, 40 H UC W+11, 69 N Dayton W+5, 81 A UCF W+12, 96 A OSU L-6, 100 A CU W+10)
..Q2b 3-0 (64 H UU W+23, 70 H TCU W+30, 100 N CU W+28)
Q3 2-1 (81 H UCF W+25, 82 H KSU L-19, 100 H CU W+14)
Q4 6-0 (182 H UNO W+32, 242 H UMKC W+26, 269 H JSU+42, 317 H UI Indy+35, 336 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)

ISU
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 80.2
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 67.2
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 75.2
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 52 High Score: 86 Ave Score: 68.2

Notes

ISU in top 12 of most results based (SOR, WAB) and predictive (BPI, POM, T-Rank) metrics except KPI (23).​
Remaining games:
  • 04 MAR - 26 H BYU (Q1b)
  • 08 MAR - 82 A KSU (Q2a)
 

not-the-manager

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Since I’ve become Mr. Optimism on the forums overnight, take a gander at this.



Whether or not we even believe it, this team is still a Final Four contender. After the Kansas football game I thought the season was over. Matt Campbell delivered. There’s a smaller sample size to look to, but I’m going to choose to put my faith in Otz and his staff. The team didn’t suddenly become bad. They just need to find ways to play to their potential
 

Sigmapolis

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Not that I loved their sports analytics (and I was essentially trashing their methodology when it came to ranking college basketball teams earlier in this thread) but FiveThirtyEight is dead...

https://abcnews.go.com/538

I recommend Nate Silver and his Silver Bulletin on Substack.

Most of his content was political in 2024 (as you might imagine) but he's broadened out to more about sports, especially baseball and basketball, this year plus he is recreating all his old models.
 

Sigmapolis

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Please god stay off that 4 line.

If we somehow manage (and I hope K-State has a broken spirit by now) then...

#2s Tennessee, Florida, Michigan St., and Kentucky don't scare me too badly.

Location draft for the first weekend is fairly favorable for the Cyclones in the first weekend...

Cleveland = #6 Florida / #7 Michigan St.

Denver = #11 Iowa St. / #12 Arizona

Lexington = #1 Auburn / #4 Alabama

Milwaukee = #8 Kentucky / #10 Wisconsin

Providence = #13 Missouri / #14 St. John's

Raleigh = #2 Duke / #5 Tennessee

Seattle = #15 Texas A&M / #16 Purdue

Wichita = #3 Houston / #9 Texas Tech
 

CascadeClone

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Since I’ve become Mr. Optimism on the forums overnight, take a gander at this.



Whether or not we even believe it, this team is still a Final Four contender. After the Kansas football game I thought the season was over. Matt Campbell delivered. There’s a smaller sample size to look to, but I’m going to choose to put my faith in Otz and his staff. The team didn’t suddenly become bad. They just need to find ways to play to their potential

Wonder what that would look like, just taking the last 10 games or so?

ISU probably worse? BYU certainly better. Etc.

Also, whar Fran??
 

not-the-manager

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In typical Iowa State fashion, would beating KSU end up working against ISU? I see they jumped to 75 in NET. Also does Baylor have to beat Houston to get in the top 30, or would a loss followed by a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament get them over the hump?
 

Sigmapolis

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In typical Iowa State fashion, would beating KSU end up working against ISU? I see they jumped to 75 in NET. Also does Baylor have to beat Houston to get in the top 30, or would a loss followed by a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament get them over the hump?

There is no way these second-order effects would overwhelm the black mark of a loss.

Beat KSU and we're probably safe at a #3.

Lose and we're probably a #4 or even a #5 and have a ~75% chance of running into Auburn, Duke, or Houston a round earlier. The longer we avoid those superdreadnoughts the better for the F4 run.
 

dahliaclone

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There is no way these second-order effects would overwhelm the black mark of a loss.

Beat KSU and we're probably safe at a #3.

Lose and we're probably a #4 or even a #5 and have a ~75% chance of running into Auburn, Duke, or Houston a round earlier. The longer we avoid those superdreadnoughts the better for the F4 run.
At first glance I read this as superdoughnuts and thought ‘I would love those’
 

clone52

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In typical Iowa State fashion, would beating KSU end up working against ISU? I see they jumped to 75 in NET. Also does Baylor have to beat Houston to get in the top 30, or would a loss followed by a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament get them over the hump?

That is an insane jump. Lets just get a nice 1 point win. Maybe keep them there.
 

CoachHines3

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There is no way these second-order effects would overwhelm the black mark of a loss.

Beat KSU and we're probably safe at a #3.

Lose and we're probably a #4 or even a #5 and have a ~75% chance of running into Auburn, Duke, or Houston a round earlier. The longer we avoid those superdreadnoughts the better for the F4 run.
I just don't see how #5 could ever be in play.

2 and a half weeks ago we were #9 overall. Are we going to drop all the way to 17-20? I guess its plausible, but I just don't see it
 
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Sigmapolis

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I just don't see how #5 could ever be in play.

2 and a half weeks ago we were #9 overall. Are we going to drop all the way to 17-20? I guess its plausible, but I just don't see it

I have some residual fear in me the committee can boost you by one line or drop you by one line if they need to do so to make the bracket work (e.g., no repeat matchups until the second weekend).

I suppose that risk is what happens when you're a #5 through a bubble team. We're probably at worst a #4 but who knows with a loss to K-State and another clunker in KC against against somebody like Cincinnati or UCF. Neither of those teams are good. But James is good enough to beat you on his own and UCF has a ton of tall, long, and athletic guys who can give you fits even if they're not very skilled at basketball.

So... you never know.

I don't see a #4 or #5 as all that different, though. You're still likely lined up against a #1 seed in the second weekend in the first game if you make it that far. That's what I'm hoping they can avoid.
 

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