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2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

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not-the-manager

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Sigmapolis said:
There is no way these second-order effects would overwhelm the black mark of a loss.

Beat KSU and we're probably safe at a #3.

Lose and we're probably a #4 or even a #5 and have a ~75% chance of running into Auburn, Duke, or Houston a round earlier. The longer we avoid those superdreadnoughts the better for the F4 run.
Click to expand...
I absolutely agree ISU has to win, I was just saying it feels like another body blow that in doing so you would harm your résumé, in a way. But you're right, they should secure a 3 seed with a win regardless of where KSU ends up in the NET. I was just curious about them and Baylor, not worried that those head-to-heads will cost ISU as long as they win
 
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not-the-manager

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How about another round of confirmation bias? Mr. Miyakawa is speaking my language. (No, ISU isn’t one of the teams that’s severely underachieved, but regression to the mean would still be good for them.)

 
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cyclones500

cyclones500

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NorthCyd

NorthCyd

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not-the-manager said:
How about another round of confirmation bias? Mr. Miyakawa is speaking my language. (No, ISU isn’t one of the teams that’s severely underachieved, but regression to the mean would still be good for them.)

Click to expand...

Hmmm... this says WVU overachieved. This can't be true. I've had @CyCity lecture me that they have underachieved under DeVries. Better have him adjust the graph accordingly.
 
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dahliaclone

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not-the-manager said:
How about another round of confirmation bias? Mr. Miyakawa is speaking my language. (No, ISU isn’t one of the teams that’s severely underachieved, but regression to the mean would still be good for them.)

Click to expand...

Yeah UCONN and honestly Kansas I just don’t know what I’ll do with on my bracket. You can bet no 1 seed wants to see UConn pop up as an 8/9. And as ****** as Kansas has been I can see them elite 8 if they get hot
 
CyDawg23

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not-the-manager said:
How about another round of confirmation bias? Mr. Miyakawa is speaking my language. (No, ISU isn’t one of the teams that’s severely underachieved, but regression to the mean would still be good for them.)

Click to expand...

Drake Bearcats/Bulldogs look impressive on this chart.
 
cyclones500

cyclones500

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dahliaclone said:
Yeah UCONN and honestly Kansas I just don’t know what I’ll do with on my bracket. You can bet no 1 seed wants to see UConn pop up as an 8/9. And as ****** as Kansas has been I can see them elite 8 if they get hot
Click to expand...
UConn has made a slight climb, gives me gut feeling it could make some kind of run after falling off the map for much of the season.

This season's KU team doesn't seem to me it has the same sort of surge in it. Unusual situation for Kansas, I think Self's lowest seed at Kansas has been a 4. Uncharted territory as hunter vs. the hunted.
 
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Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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cyclones500 said:
UConn has made a slight climb, gives me gut feeling it could make some kind of run after falling off the map for much of the season.

This season's KU team doesn't seem to me it has the same sort of surge in it. Unusual situation for Kansas, I think Self's lowest seed at Kansas has been a 4. Uncharted territory as hunter vs. the hunted.
Click to expand...

If I were a #1 seed and got UConn in the second round... I'd be petrified. And annoyed.

Upset special.

Hurley is an ******* but an elite coach. They still have elite talent. They can't stop much of anybody but they sure can score. A hot Karaban could take down somebody like Duke or Houston.
 
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cyclones500

cyclones500

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Sigmapolis said:
If I were a #1 seed and got UConn in the second round... I'd be petrified. And annoyed.

Upset special.

Hurley is an ******* but an elite coach. They still have elite talent. They can't stop much of anybody but they sure can score. A hot Karaban could take down somebody like Duke or Houston.
Click to expand...
I envision UConn getting placed with the 4th overall 1 (probably in West) and advancing even past S16.

Not sure if 4th will be Houston or one of the SECs.

UConn has a shot of climbing to a 7, although not sure of likelihood. Definitely could see the 7-over-2 somewhere with that one.
 
Sigmapolis

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dahliaclone said:
@Sigmapolis curious what you think happens with not only our win today but also Wisconsin taking a very bad loss at home to a bad PSU
Click to expand...

Torvik has us as #11 overall (a #3 line) with Wisconsin dropping to a #4 line.

I'd say it's 90%+ we're a #3 whatever happens in KC.

Just avoid a bad loss to Cinci or UCF. Another BYU loss is "fine."
 
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not-the-manager

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How did ISU’s offensive efficiency drop like seven spots in kenpom? Points per possession probably weren’t great today but it was not a bad showing. I guess I thought single games could only bump adjusted efficiency ratings up or down 1-3 at this point in the season. Is it because some opponents’ defensive metrics have dropped recently?
 
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