Way better defended than against us... He was forced to the baseline rather than allowed to get to center court where they practice daily after workouts
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Friendly reminder that the top 16 bracket reveal is Saturday at 11:30 on CBS.
www.ncaa.com
2025 March Madness bracket preview: Top 16 reveal and history of how those seeds do
Here's a guide to the top 16 reveal for the 2025 NCAA tournament, set for 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 16, on CBS.
Every basketball player who has ever practiced in the history of ever throws up half court shots at center court following workouts. I guarantee if there was a live feed at SUKUP in Ames, you'd see it daily
If you are going to let someone shot a last second three, don't let them get to half court with their shoulders and hips aligned to the basket
Well this is information I wasn't aware of. Every player? Ever?
A shot with a 5% chance of going in is still a 5% shot. I can basically guarantee he doesn't make it last night if he shoots the same shot as he did vs. ISU.
It might be a challenge to get that loss up to a Q1, especially if ISU wins on their floor. However it is certainly doable to get it up from Q2b territory to Q2a. The committee does look at that level of granularity.
I am just as concerned about Colorado since we play them (at least) three times. They are currently at NET 107. If they can win a game or two and get to NET 100 or better the Q3 Neutral game goes from a Q3 to Q2b AND the Q2b Road game goes from a Q2b to Q2a. I'm afraid there is no hope for the upcoming Q3 home game. In addition getting that Neutral game up helps our Non-con SOS which has taken a big hit the last month. Colorado still has home games against UCF Saturday and TCU to end the season.
I'm not trying to say it's guaranteed to go in, but high level college basketball players can make that shot with decent regularity.
On Gameday, Jay Williams made it in Hilton on Saturday, while wearing a suit. He actually makes it more often than you'd think.
You are right it was lucky, I'm just saying there are better ways to defend that in the future, like how K-State forced him to the sideline, not at center court.
Well good thing ISU didn't let him get to half court and also didn't foul him in the act of shooting.
It was also after a missed free throw so Arizona couldn't set up any type of play (unintentionally missed). I'd still say the look he got against Arizona was very similar to the one he made against us. Either way, it's less than a 1% make probability. The way we defended it was fine. The first priority was not letting them throw the pass down court. We did that. The second priority was not letting them catch a pass with a full head of steam running forward. We did that. 3rd priority was not fouling while they shot. We did that too. I don't know what else fans want. Yeah, you can try to force him to the sideline, but then you're risking a collision and a foul.
Torvick efficiency data, since Milan returned needs to be sent to the selection committee for Saturday's reveal
Well, he wasn't at half court, he was about 15 feet behind it. NBA make % from half court or beyond is 1%. The shot Love made against us was likely a <1% make probability. **** happens.
No they don't. Not in a live game. Not even close.
They also had to shoot it off of a miss and not a set in bounds play.
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I like it but they'll community note that those wins were against stinky doo doo teams.
Bad losses only help your football ranking. In basketball, you want all the teams you lose to, to win as much as possible. Been cheering for Auburn since we lost @WVU and @AZ. Once we were 2 losses behind, we weren't going to get to #1.
Across CBB there have been ~5 half court+ makes in just the last couple weeks alone. Certainly not a hyper percentage shot, but much higher percentage shot in the center unguarded. I bet Love makes our same shot 1/10 times, and the specific shot he had against K-State maybe 1/50.
And year, it was still lucky AF.
1. You'll have to show me exactly where all those were made from.
2. Love wasn't unguarded.
3. You're an entire order of magnitude off with the 1/10. It's more like 1/100, or less. NBA stats back that up.
Man what have I been watching then, because since our game and that lucky shot went in I've watched roughly 10+ games across NBA and CBB where a player shot a 3/4 to 1/2 court shot and missed. Surely I'd have seen another one if you're claiming it to be that common.
It's because it isn't common. It's around a 5% chance of it going in. Hell, Braden Smith for Purdue last night had a shot where he got it passed half court and was forced to the sideline and wasn't even close. A far higher percentage shot but no one will talk about it because he missed it.
Yes, guys practice these shots but the rate of success is still incredibly low.
I think this projection is "as of now" and I don't love their methodology but you asked...
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/
