2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[NorthCyd]

Well of course it is, but a win on the road @ Tech will still be impressive, no matter by how much. That one week resume compared to ours doesn't warrant a jump over us.

Pitt by 29: 12-3, #25 KenPom, #20 in NET
vs.
@ TTU by ???: 10-3, #16 KenPom, #16 in NET

Notre Dame by ???: 7-7, #91 in KenPom, #100 in NET
vs.
Utah by 23: 8-6, #88 in KenPom, #89 in NET

If we beat Tech in a close game and Duke blows out ND then I will bet performance wise metrics would look at this weeks results as very similar for both teams, and resume wise both teams get a quad 1 and quad 3 win. That said, if ISU wins regardless of margin we will be #2 or #1 next week depending on what happens with Auburn IMO.

 

[Sigmapolis]

WTF



Fred has the Huskers with the #6 defense in the country!?!?????

 

[MeowingCows]

WTF

View attachment 140647

Fred has the Huskers with the #6 defense in the country!?!?????

I immediately question if they've played a team with a pulse yet given that information

 

[bawbie]

There was a lot of that game where I thought our performance was a 'B-', especially offensively where we were disinterested and almost messing around at time. In the first half, then TJ called the timeout when we were down 5 and we go on the huge run for the rest of the half.

So I'll call it a 'B' performance from us - which got a '97' game score on torvik. bananas

 

[Sigmapolis]

I immediately question if they've played a team with a pulse yet given that information

Torvik adjusts for the quality of offense you played. They don't have the greatest schedule, but they've played seven teams that I think you can say have a "pulse" with StMs and O(R)SU.



Torvik has them landing in their usual #8 or #9 range, though.



I think we missed Hoiberg v. Prohm. Fred got the better of him.

https://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=Murray+St.Nebraska12-22&year=2025

 

[Statefan10]

If we beat Tech in a close game and Duke blows out ND then I will bet performance wise metrics would look at this weeks results as very similar for both teams, and resume wise both teams get a quad 1 and quad 3 win. That said, if ISU wins regardless of margin we will be #2 or #1 next week depending on what happens with Auburn IMO.

Yeah Auburn plays @ South Carolina so likely a W. And yeah I think both ours and Duke's week would be very similar, so it wouldn't warrant a jump over us in the rankings. However, voters could definitely think otherwise. Duke beat Auburn, we lost to Auburn, keep us at 3. Dumb, but whatever. I'll gladly take the victory Saturday if it means we still stay #3 lol.

 

[cyclones500]

Yeah Auburn plays @ South Carolina so likely a W. And yeah I think both ours and Duke's week would be very similar, so it wouldn't warrant a jump over us in the rankings. However, voters could definitely think otherwise. Duke beat Auburn, we lost to Auburn, keep us at 3. Dumb, but whatever. I'll gladly take the victory Saturday if it means we still stay #3 lol.

I'll cross the bridge when it comes, but even w/ ISU win over TT, Duke jumping us wouldn't shock me. Mostly because only 60 points separation in this week's poll, in addition to if people take into account the Auburn win more from earlier. Most voters aren't broad-picture that way. Duke higher in NET right now than Iowa State, too, to the extent that matters.

 

[CychiatricWard]

I'll cross the bridge when it comes, but even w/ ISU win over TT, Duke jumping us wouldn't shock me. Mostly because only 60 points separation in this week's poll, in addition to if people take into account the Auburn win more from earlier. Most voters aren't broad-picture that way. Duke higher in NET right now than Iowa State, too, to the extent that matters.

I would hope that the voters, with a same week win wise, would keep us above them as we still would have one less loss. Should matter. Kentucky who has 3 losses, all of them to unranked foes, and Kansas who also has 3 losses to unranked foes. I know they are both top ten but the losses should still matter. We both have good wins. No reason to jump.

 

[mschmitty17]

Torvik adjusts for the quality of offense you played. They don't have the greatest schedule, but they've played seven teams that I think you can say have a "pulse" with StMs and O(R)SU.

View attachment 140649

Torvik has them landing in their usual #8 or #9 range, though.

View attachment 140650

I think we missed Hoiberg v. Prohm. Fred got the better of him.

https://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=Murray+St.Nebraska12-22&year=2025

Maybe a dumb question, what is the number to the right of the score? Like in the Iowa game it shows the score, then there's the number 81 after.

 

[Urbandale2013]

I could care less what the AP poll shows.

It ain't on the team sheet come March.

Speaking of which...

View attachment 140641

Projected...

View attachment 140642

That is your Big 12 champion and a #1 seed -- and both by a mile.

It doesn’t matter much but it would be just another case of disrespect. Also I was being mostly hyperbolic.

 

[NENick]

I'd like to see Iowa State beat Texas Tech and become #2 in the AP poll for the first time next week, but I think Duke is going to leapfrog us because they're destroying mid ACC teams and have the Cooper Flagg hype.

I would hope that the voters, with a same week win wise, would keep us above them as we still would have one less loss. Should matter. Kentucky who has 3 losses, all of them to unranked foes, and Kansas who also has 3 losses to unranked foes. I know they are both top ten but the losses should still matter. We both have good wins. No reason to jump.

If ISU wins at TT, I think they move to #2. Duke did beat Auburn in a close game, at home. ISU lost on a last second tip-in on a neutral court.

But I do agree that it doesn't really matter, since there are dumb voters.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Maybe a dumb question, what is the number to the right of the score? Like in the Iowa game it shows the score, then there's the number 81 after.

# of possessions

Most college games are in the 65 to 75 possession range.

I think the average last year was around 72, though that can fluctuate slightly.

The Iowa/Nebraska game is so high because the game went into overtime.

40/45 = 88.89% * 81 = 72 on the dot, which is typical for the 40 minutes of regulation ball

Torvik and KenPom (and the NBA analytics sites) "normalize" all their offensive and defensive efficiencies to points scored/given up per 100 possessions, so you need to know the number of possessions in the game in order to make an accurate representation of the per possessions efficiencies. NBA games not so coincidentally tend to have between 95 and 105 possessions, so 100 is sensible number to use.

Otherwise "fast" teams (e.g., the Hoiball-era Cyclones) look better than they should if they win because they played in more possessions and thus had more chances to open up a lead compared to a slow team (e.g., the Bennett-era "pack line" UVA teams or Wisconsin when it had those 7' white guys).

 

[VeloClone]

How about an update after this week's weekday games...

Iowa State NET 7 (2nd in Big 12 – UH 4)
Overall: 13-1 OOC: 10-1 Big 12: 3-0
NET SOS: 54, NET OOC SOS: 72

Q1 3-1
..Q1a 1-1 (1 N Auburn L-2, 13 H Marquette W+11)
..Q1b 2-0 (21 H BU+19, 50 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 3-0
..Q2a 2-0 (62 N Dayton W+5, 83 A CU W+10)
..Q2b 1-0 (83 N CU W+28)
Q3 1-0 (85 H UU W+23)
Q4 6-0 (235 H UMKC W+26, 236 H UNO W+32, 315 H JSU+42, 330 H UI Indy+35, 351 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)

ISU
Low Score: 74 High Score: 100 Ave Score: 86.3
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 83 Ave Score: 64.6
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 74 High Score: 82 Ave Score: 78.3
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 55 High Score: 69 Ave Score: 61.0

Notes

• ISU in top 8 of most results based (SOR, WAB) and predictive (BPI, POM, T-Rank) metrics except KPI(13).
• ISU dropped to 7th with Florida (5) and Illinois (6) leapfrogging in the last week.
• Big 12 doesn’t have a single team undefeated vs. Q1. ISU’s 3-1 mark is the best Q1 record.

As of today the best games ISU has left on the schedule:

• 4 A UH (Q1a)
• 9 A KU (Q1a)
• 14 A UA (Q1a)
• 17 A TTU (Q1a)
• 34 A WVU (Q1a)
• 9 H KU (Q1a)
• 14 H UA (Q1a)
• 52 A ASU (Q1b)

As of today the worst games ISU has left on the schedule:

• 120 H KSU (Q3)
• 83 H CU (Q3)
• 80 H UCF (Q3)
• 76 H TCU (Q3)

Next games:

• 11 JAN - 17 A TTU (Q1a)
• 15 JAN - 9 H KU (Q1a)
• 18 JAN - 34 A WVU (Q1a)
• 21 JAN - 80 H UCF (Q3)
• 25 JAN - 52 A ASU (Q1b)
• 27 JAN - 14 A UA (Q1a)
• 01 FEB - 120 H KSU (Q3)
• 03 FEB - 9 A KU (Q1a)

 

[Sigmapolis]

Almost comical how many Q1A games we have comin' up.

 

[ClubCy]

Almost comical how many Q1A games we have comin' up.

Exactly and I can’t wait to see the meltdown if we happen to drop a couple.

 

[NENick]

Exactly and I can’t wait to see the meltdown if we happen to drop a couple.

Oh, I can wait.

 

[ClubCy]

Oh, I can wait.

If we lose a close one late I guarantee there will be heavy discussion on why TJ leaves starters in too long and that we have no legs.

 

[NWICY]

WTF

View attachment 140647

Fred has the Huskers with the #6 defense in the country!?!?????

Well this certainly didn't pass the eye test in Iowa City the other night. But it's on the computer so......

 

[bosco]

If we lose a close one late I guarantee there will be heavy discussion on why TJ leaves starters in too long and that we have no legs.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Exactly and I can’t wait to see the meltdown if we happen to drop a couple.

Meltdown or fans just being normal fans talking about the game, passionately giving opinions (with no requirement for those opinions to be rational) with other fans?