2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

1UNI2ISU

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Seems like it's time for the annual reminder that Lunardi is one of the worst bracketologists out there, and his projections aren't even worth discussing, especially since he's employed by ESPN.

So maybe don't too worked up about what he thinks.
But for $10k, he'll consult with your program to 'optimize' your schedule for an at large bid.

Dude is nothing more than a carny but god bless him for getting that bag.
 

nrg4isu

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I'd like to see Iowa State beat Texas Tech and become #2 in the AP poll for the first time next week, but I think Duke is going to leapfrog us because they're destroying mid ACC teams and have the Cooper Flagg hype. :(

I'll worry about complaining when it happens. I don't really care what Duke/Espn does. I just want us to keep winning.
 
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cyfan92

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5 of the next 8 games are on the road with 5 of those games being Q1-A games (as it sits today)..

The minimum goal to stay a top seed is 4-4 over the next 8 with losses @Tech, @WV, @ AZ and @KU. Those are all Q1-A losses and would include a Q1-A win at home against KU, road win at ASU, and home wins against Central Florida and Purple Kansas.

Ideally we go 5-3 (or better) over the next 8 games as the only "tough" games we play from 2/1 onward are @ kansas and @ houston.

My base case is 15-5 in the league and win at least 1 in KC, which should get you a 2 seed at worst and could get the last #1 seed, given the wins in the NonCon
 

cyfan92

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I could care less what the AP poll shows.

It ain't on the team sheet come March.

Speaking of which...

View attachment 140641

Projected...

View attachment 140642

That is your Big 12 champion and a #1 seed -- and both by a mile.

The resume has taken minor hits with Dayton and Colorado falling off. Ideally 2/3 of those are Q1 games with the Maui win moving to Q2-A.

Iowa likely doesn't have it in them to move to a Q1-A win but it should stay in the Q1-B range
 
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Statefan10

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I'd like to see Iowa State beat Texas Tech and become #2 in the AP poll for the first time next week, but I think Duke is going to leapfrog us because they're destroying mid ACC teams and have the Cooper Flagg hype. :(
Texas Tech: 10-3, #16 in KenPom, #16 in NET
Notre Dame: 7-7, #91 in KenPom, #100 in NET

A win at Texas Tech would be a Q1A win. Duke plays a bad Notre Dame team at home for a Q3 win. It would be ridiculous if they leaped us. I do agree it's possible though.
 
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Letterkenny

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5 of the next 8 games are on the road with 5 of those games being Q1-A games (as it sits today)..

The minimum goal to stay a top seed is 4-4 over the next 8 with losses @Tech, @WV, @ AZ and @KU. Those are all Q1-A losses and would include a Q1-A win at home against KU, road win at ASU, and home wins against Central Florida and Purple Kansas.

Ideally we go 5-3 (or better) over the next 8 games as the only "tough" games we play from 2/1 onward are @ kansas and @ houston.

My base case is 15-5 in the league and win at least 1 in KC, which should get you a 2 seed at worst and could get the last #1 seed, given the wins in the NonCon
We should win @WV. I think they're about to start tanking with their injuries.
 

CycloneEggie

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Duke will jump us. I mean Auburn will be number one and their only loss will be to Duke, with our only lose being to Auburn
 
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NorthCyd

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Texas Tech: 10-3, #16 in KenPom, #16 in NET
Notre Dame: 7-7, #91 in KenPom, #100 in NET

A win at Texas Tech would be a Q1A win. Duke plays a bad Notre Dame team at home for a Q3 win. It would be ridiculous if they leaped us. I do agree it's possible though.
You can't just ignore last nights games. A win at Tech would be the best of them all if ISU wins, and I don't think Duke would jump ISU if that happens, but Dukes win last night is way more impressive than ISUs.
 

Statefan10

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You can't just ignore last nights games. A win at Tech would be the best of them all if ISU wins, and I don't think Duke would jump ISU if that happens, but Dukes win last night is way more impressive than ISUs.
Well of course it is, but a win on the road @ Tech will still be impressive, no matter by how much. That one week resume compared to ours doesn't warrant a jump over us.

Pitt by 29: 12-3, #25 KenPom, #20 in NET
vs.
@ TTU by ???: 10-3, #16 KenPom, #16 in NET

Notre Dame by ???: 7-7, #91 in KenPom, #100 in NET
vs.
Utah by 23: 8-6, #88 in KenPom, #89 in NET
 
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