2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[cyatheart]

I think Iowa just won’t guard tamin beyond 15 feet. Try to help off him a ton.

It’s Iowa’s biggest game of the year and it isn’t close. They kind of need this one.

Whistle will be important to in this game. Couple fouls on Gilbert or jones, they get into the bonus early, could be a long night. Need it to be a physical game but I have no reason to think we going to get any calls there. Just can’t have stupid needless fouls.

 

[Dgilbertson]

In regards to Tamin, in Maui and vs Marquette he was hanging out on the by the 3pt corner and not moving a lot.
The guy is a warrior. He'll probably never be fully healthy.

He’s the Beau Freyler/Greg Eisworth of ISU MBB

 

[NWICY]

83-79 for the good guys on Torvik right now
64% win expectation

...which gives the Herks a 36% win expectation. Roughly a 2:1 advantage.

Not terrible. But not overwhelming either.

Iowa should rightfully be fired up for this game. It is their last and best chance for a juicy Q1-A win OOC to buttress their CV come March. The rivalry stuff and Fran being Fran is just the frosting.

Maybe Iowa comes out and buries a bunch of threes and this game goes how it always goes.

Or maybe Gilbert comes out and shows the Herks he's the best college basketball player in the state by a mile. Abuses their guards on both offense and defense. Maybe Lipsey does the same thing in an in-state rivalry game and finally gets back some of that "mojo" he seems to have been missing.

Or maybe the Presidents just beat up their frontcourt. Easy shots inside, tons of offensive rebounds.

Easy to see it going either way.

Oh,I like the Presidents moniker, nice job Sig!

 

[ClonerJams]

The recent years we've lost to Iowa, its because they've come out with a really hot start. The first 5 minutes are really important - I'm guessing our offensive strategy is to get in inside to Jackson and Jefferson to see if they can defend it and if we can get Freeman into foul trouble.

 

[NENick]

It seems to that most see Iowa with 1 chance to win, get hot from 3. I agree.
The flip side is that ISU has multiple ways to win.
- Turn them over and get fast breaks.
- They can't guard Gilbert, who goes off.
- Cyclone bigs pound them inside.
- The bench, led by Jones, wears them down.
- Milan, Jones, and others shoot lights out from 3.

I like having options.

Oh, I forgot, be ice cold, but just shut the down. Win 50-40. Lol

 

[ForeverIowan]

I think Iowa just won’t guard tamin beyond 15 feet. Try to help off him a ton.

It’s Iowa’s biggest game of the year and it isn’t close. They kind of need this one.

Whistle will be important to in this game. Couple fouls on Gilbert or jones, they get into the bonus early, could be a long night. Need it to be a physical game but I have no reason to think we going to get any calls there. Just can’t have stupid needless fouls.

Im not so sure the Iowa backcourt has the quickness to get Lipsey/Gilbert/Jones in early foul trouble. Im not so sure who on Iowas roster is going to defend Gilbert. Nightmare matchup for them. Perhaps they play a lot of 2-3 zone. I think both Gilbert and Jefferson could cause havoc catching the ball in the middle of a soft zone though. We really havent seen much of it yet this year.

 

[madguy30]

It seems to that most see Iowa with 1 chance to win, get hot from 3. I agree.
The flip side is that ISU has multiple ways to win.
- Turn them over and get fast breaks.
- They can't guard Gilbert, who goes off.
- Cyclone bigs pound them inside.
- The bench, led by Jones, wears them down.
- Milan, Jones, and others shoot lights out from 3.

I like having options.

Oh, I forgot, be ice cold, but just shut the down. Win 50-40. Lol

For one game, they can.

Foul trouble will also play a part.

Fran flails around but I'll give him credit: he seems to be good at forcing the issue to get the opponent in foul trouble.

 

[mj4cy]

For one game, they can.

Foul trouble will also play a part.

Fran flails around but I'll give him credit: he seems to be good at forcing the issue to get the opponent in foul trouble.

Even with foul trouble we can play deeper than past years.

 

[madguy30]

Even with foul trouble we can play deeper than past years.

Which is great on the season.

A one game scenario though in a weird gym after a fresh high ranking and I don't trust the 'ISU should be able to do what they want'.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Im not so sure the Iowa backcourt has the quickness to get Lipsey/Gilbert/Jones in early foul trouble. Im not so sure who on Iowas roster is going to defend Gilbert. Nightmare matchup for them. Perhaps they play a lot of 2-3 zone. I think both Gilbert and Jefferson could cause havoc catching the ball in the middle of a soft zone though. We really havent seen much of it yet this year.

Iowa will drive and flail and flop, and they will get whistles for doing so. The athletic advantage rarely matters in Iowa City.

Are people forgetting that we usually get absolutely boatraced in this game in Carver? Like, even our really good teams? Not like 5 - 10 point close losses. But like, catastrophic 20+ losses where we are down by 20 points for huge portions of the game...

 

[NENick]

Are people forgetting that we usually get absolutely boatraced in this game in Carver? Like, even our really good teams? Not like 5 - 10 point close losses. But like, catastrophic 20+ losses where we are down by 20 points for huge portions of the game...

Stranger things have happened, but I gotta say, I just don't see that happening to this Cyclone team in this game. They could lose, but I'm confident they won't get blown out.

 

[madguy30]

Iowa will drive and flail and flop, and they will get whistles for doing so. The athletic advantage rarely matters in Iowa City.

Are people forgetting that we usually get absolutely boatraced in this game in Carver? Like, even our really good teams? Not like 5 - 10 point close losses. But like, catastrophic 20+ losses where we are down by 20 points for huge portions of the game...

I think they are forgetting and falling into the rut of thinking what's happened before Thursday matters.

ISU is better today, will be better on Friday and unless something wild happens they'll go on to be better all season.

But time and time again for two hours on Thursday none of that matters.

I'll gladly whiff on my predictions but this place will be a mess for a couple of days...I'd guess a few 'At least Fred beat Iowa consistenly' will be thrown around among other things.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I don’t know if he gets a break after Thursday. You would think playing one of the worst teams in CBB yesterday that Lipsey would have sat but he still played 25 minutes.

I would expect him to play in that game building up to the Iowa game. He doesn’t need to play against Mcneese or whoever to build up for Omaha.

 

[madguy30]

I don’t know if he gets a break after Thursday. You would think playing one of the worst teams in CBB yesterday that Lipsey would have sat but he still played 25 minutes.

Which would mean the coaches, trainers, etc. thought it was fine for him to play. Repeating but I thought he looked more comfortable.

If it really gets to a point where he needs to sit, then he'll sit like last year.

I know that was a conference game but sometimes just sitting for a bye game or two doesn't mean it's going to be much better or stronger 2 months later.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Stranger things have happened, but I gotta say, I just don't see that happening to this Cyclone team in this game. They could lose, but I'm confident they won't get blown out.

This is how I feel. Iowa is built to possibly get hot from 3 any game they play but we have lacked killer instinct on previous teams, there is no way Keshon for example is laying down for anyone.

 

[Cyhig]

Cyclones won't need a late reverse layup to win. Cyclones by 15+
But it's still fun to troll Iowa fans...

 

[AuH2O]

Im not so sure the Iowa backcourt has the quickness to get Lipsey/Gilbert/Jones in early foul trouble. Im not so sure who on Iowas roster is going to defend Gilbert. Nightmare matchup for them. Perhaps they play a lot of 2-3 zone. I think both Gilbert and Jefferson could cause havoc catching the ball in the middle of a soft zone though. We really havent seen much of it yet this year.

Iowa has never had quickness, but always manages to get teams in foul trouble. This has been the staple of Franball.
- Have weak, soft players that have the arms of a typical 12 year old
- Flail said gangly limbs into a defender in legal guarding position while not attempting to make an actual basketball play
- Get dumb and incompetent officials to fall for this
- Knock down FTs

 

[madguy30]

Iowa has never had quickness, but always manages to get teams in foul trouble. This has been the staple of Franball.
- Have weak, soft players that have the arms of a typical 12 year old
- Flail said gangly limbs into a defender in legal guarding position while not attempting to make an actual basketball play
- Get dumb and incompetent officials to fall for this
- Knock down FTs

Don't forget throwing a fit about any calls made against them.

This goes back to the Tom Davis days and I think was somehow a product of Haydenism; 'There's no way I did anything wrong or that the opponent was better so I'll complain obnoxiously and make excuses' mindset.

 

[bawbie]

Iowa has never had quickness, but always manages to get teams in foul trouble. This has been the staple of Franball.
- Have weak, soft players that have the arms of a typical 12 year old
- Flail said gangly limbs into a defender in legal guarding position while not attempting to make an actual basketball play
- Get dumb and incompetent officials to fall for this
- Knock down FTs

They aren't as effective this year, so far, at getting to the line. They are only averaging ~17FTs per game, compared to >21FTs per game last year. Freeman and the elder Sandfort are getting to the line the most at ~3.5 attempts per game - for reference Dishon is ~5 and Keshon is > 7FT attempts per game.

What they have done really well this year is keeping the other team off the line. We have as well, opponents are averaging 15.5 attempts per game for use - but Iowa is down around 14.

Now stat trends can definitely be thrown out the window during a rivalry game - but that's not really who they are this year. From what I've seen, they don't drive looking for contact nearly as much as they drive looking to kick out for a 3.

But, other than maybe Thelwell, they aren't going to be able to drive the middle against us. I'm curious to see what we do on the high ball screens. Normally we'd ice or trap them, force the ball handler to make a tough pass to the rolling big man, run help at him and force him to kick it out. But that's exactly how they'll get open 3pt looks. I don't think their guards can get past our guards - and their bigs aren't 3pt threats - so I wouldn't be super surprised if we went to more of a "drop coverage" look on the ball screens.

 

[VeloClone]

Oh,I like the Presidents moniker, nice job Sig!

That isn't new. People have been calling them that for a while now. I called them that watching the first game of the season.