They usually defend against us. That's the danger of facing good offensive teams that are normally bad defensively. You can get "up" one time and play a lot better defense with just increased effort and focus. It's really hard for a bad offensive team to all of a sudden execute at a high level. We ran into that against Pitt in the NCAA tournament 2 years ago too.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Torvik says we should win but also predict another loss in nonconference play. Guess it's Omaha or Morgan State?
Is it too much to ask the number crunchers to have their numbers match up?
Rounding can get you some weird places.
He does need to be a scoring threat though even if he doesn't take a lot of attempts. Recall two years ago. It can't regress back to where his defenders are sagging off as that will hinder his effectiveness off the bounce
He's 4/16 (25%) from three this year so far (eight games).
Last year he was 45/115 (39.1%) in 36 games.
8/36 = 22.2%
Multiply his shooting from last year by 22.2% and...
10 / 25.5
Definitely hasn't shown as much as an outside shooter this year.
I'm not asking him to be Matt Thomas, but that outside threat unlocks so much for him and the offense.
Ehh there's also some really lazy passes too. I get what you're saying but he's still not where he was last year.
That's statistics for you. You can be an 80% free throw shooter, but if you take 10 free throws the odds of making them all is only around 10%. Works the same for winning games. You can be an overwhelming favorite to win all of your games but odds are you will lose a couple.
Just expanding on this, here's how the math works out:
Adding together Barttorvik's win probabilities for the rest of the season results in 17.12 more wins, rounding down to 17 for a final record of 24-7. Adding the win probabilities for conference play results in 14.5 conference wins, which would round up to a 15-5 record in conference play.
Obviously it makes more sense to attribute that extra loss for the overall record to conference play than non-conference play, but the website probably calculates those two records independently, so you end up with that oddity. I understand why Barttorvik presents the projected record in terms of whole numbers, but I honestly think it would be better if it just gave it as a decimal since that's how the math is actually working.
Agreed! It's good there's people like @Sigmapolis bringing some reason to the discussion and helping fans realize it's not a layup at Carver. Heck, we've only won there like 2 times in the last 9 meetings at Carver since about 2005 with some of our best teams of all time.
Hope some ISU fans will take advantage of the inexpensive tickets and take over Carver. Would be awesome.
We've gotten killed the last 4-5 times we played there. I'm definitely not counting on an easy win. It's a toss-up game to me, at best.
I don’t know what the numbers say regarding rebounding, but I think this is the best rebounding team Otz has had here. Combine that with, I think, the best transition team Otz has had (Jefferson, Lipsey, Jones and Gilbert are all very comfy in transition, to name a few) and Iowa better be careful just jacking up the first half-open three they get or they might end up getting it shoved down their throats on the other end.
As long as we push our advantage in the post in the half-court, don’t settle for early threes of our own, and don’t put our heads down when Iowa makes a few shots, I like where we’ll be. And I know the recent history of this game and how strong home court advantage is. Even if Iowa is hustling their asses off, I still like us if we play our game.
As long as we push our advantage in the post in the half-court, don’t settle for early threes of our own, and don’t put our heads down when Iowa makes a few shots, I like where we’ll be. And I know the recent history of this game and how strong home court advantage is. Even if Iowa is hustling their asses off, I still like us if we play our game.
It will be interesting to see what this team does in its first away game this season. I can’t stand Iowa and think they’re mid, but they will be amped up to play this one. I just hope we murder them.
Also, it’s funny that Iowa has a player with the last name Dix.
Also, it’s funny that Iowa has a player with the last name Dix.
You guys seem to be having a hard time understanding the vibes. Everyone is talking about Tamin having nagging injuries. If everyone is talking about it then it’s probably worse than what we all think. They aren’t trying to hide it. That’s a big sign for me. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a break after Thursday.
I don’t know if he gets a break after Thursday. You would think playing one of the worst teams in CBB yesterday that Lipsey would have sat but he still played 25 minutes.
That being said, we've only had one game there under Otz (and that was his second year when we still had frequent episodes of offensive futility, like the Pitt game later in the year). We haven't really played there much when we've looked to be this good. The only real comparable year is 2014, which we won.
It certainly won't be easy, it never is on the road, but if we have the team we think we do, we should win.
Agreed. Even if we give him 2 months off, not sure if it will make that much difference in his shoulder.
