2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

clone52

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UNI lost to North Texas, who lost to St. John's, who's next loss to Dayton, who's next loss was to Houston, who's next loss was Iowa State, who's next loss was BYU, who's next loss was to Tech, who's next loss was TCU, who's next loss was Texas, who's next loss was Iowa State.
 
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jcf817

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UNI lost to North Texas, who lost to St. John's, who's next loss to Dayton, who's next loss was to Houston, who's next loss was Iowa State, who's next loss was BYU, who's next loss was to Tech, who's next loss was TCU, who's next loss was Texas, who's next loss was Iowa State.
That's what I found as well. I love the idea of the map, and it's fun to track it from time to time.
 

NWICY

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Bigs are way more in demand in the NIL market than guards. Not saying ISU can’t attract some good ones and getting 2 bigs will definitely be the focus, but I expect them to get at least 1 that has multiple years of eligibility and needs further development like Rob. There is a mile of difference between year 1 Rob and year 3 Rob.
And there will be the CF brain trust complaining about him not being a "impact" player why did we recruit him. TJ and Co. have a real knack for developing talent. That is why I believe Omaha is back next yr.
 

Cyclonepride

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UNI lost to North Texas, who lost to St. John's, who's next loss to Dayton, who's next loss was to Houston, who's next loss was Iowa State, who's next loss was BYU, who's next loss was to Tech, who's next loss was TCU, who's next loss was Texas, who's next loss was Iowa State.
I think I'd rather leave the map as an item of mystery than try to figure that out.
 

Sigmapolis

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And there will be the CF brain trust complaining about him not being a "impact" player why did we recruit him. TJ and Co. have a real knack for developing talent. That is why I believe Omaha is back next yr.

I would hope somebody like Ward would be instructive to Omaha.

Make a leap like that after a full offseason under this coaching and S&C staff and I'm sure NBA scouts will perk their ears up given his pedigree even if he would be a year older next year.
 

AirWalke

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Conflating two separate concepts...

Resume
(e.g., NET rating, KP rating, W/L by quad, etc.)

Analytics profile (offensive and defensive efficiency)

The current Iowa State team has a similar resume to the 2021 Iowa team (a #2 seed).

That team has a very different analytics profile than the current Iowa State team.

That Iowa team could score but sucked at defense.

This Iowa State team is at least as good on defense as that Iowa team was on offense and is much better on offense compared to where that Iowa team was on defense.

Different strengths and weaknesses, but 2024 Iowa State's weakness (offense) isn't as weak as 2021 Iowa's weakness (defense).

On a related note, I was looking the "Game Score" graphs of past ISU teams on Torvik and adjusting them to 24 games (since we've only played 24 games so far) and the trajectory of this year's team looks startlingly similar to the 2019 squad. Obviously the identity of TJ's teams are COMPLETELY different than Phrom's, but it just seemed interesting nonetheless.

It looks like the wheels started to come off that year after consecutive home losses to TCU and Baylor, but otherwise that team looked really solid up to a point until they lost 6 of their last 8 games and kinda limped their way to a 6-seed.

The Big 12 is a league where every game is "the most important" but the next two games will probably be the most critical games we've played all season in terms of determining the remaining trajectory of the season. Defend the home court and, if that's successful, Monday night between the league's top two teams that will likely determine who the regular season champ will be.
 
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NorthCyd

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On a related note, I was looking the "Game Score" graphs of past ISU teams on Torvik and adjusting them to 24 games (since we've only played 24 games so far) and the trajectory of this year's team looks startlingly similar to the 2019 squad. Obviously the identity of TJ's teams are COMPLETELY different than Phrom's, but it just seemed interesting nonetheless.

It looks like the wheels started to come off that year after consecutive home losses to TCU and Baylor, but otherwise that team looked really solid up to a point until they lost 6 of their last 8 games and kinda limped their way to a 6-seed.

The Big 12 is a league where every game is "the most important" but the next two games will probably be the most critical games we've played all season in terms of determining the remaining trajectory of the season. Defend the home court and, if that's successful, Monday night between the league's top two teams that will likely determine who the regular season champ will be.
That team had a ton of egos and chemistry issues. I don't see any of that with this team.
 
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NorthCyd

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I remember a game where they were fighting with each other out on the court. @WVU maybe?
Yeah I remember that. That team was a collection of talented players that never seemed to gel. Too many guys looking out for themselves and not buying into the team concept. Prohm could get talent but he was terrible at establishing culture which TJ excels at.
 

Sigmapolis

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I remember a game where they were fighting with each other out on the court. @WVU maybe?

Yeah I remember that. That team was a collection of talented players that never seemed to gel. Too many guys looking out for themselves and not buying into the team concept. Prohm could get talent but he was terrible at establishing culture which TJ excels at.

That team was markedly more talented than this one.

NBA guys = Shayok, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Haliburton (!!!)

Conditt briefly signed with the Trailblazers and plays for their D-League team.
Lard briefly played for the Magic's D-League Team. Could have been much more.
Nick is having a very good career over in Europe.
Jacobson weirdly has stuck in *NFL* practice squads.

Who even projects to the NBA on the current team outside of Milan?

Omaha based on his recruiting rankings/potential? He's not even playing now.

Maybe Gilbert or Jones? Maybe Tamin? None of them strike me as NBA-level talents.
 

Cyclonepride

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I would hope somebody like Ward would be instructive to Omaha.

Make a leap like that after a full offseason under this coaching and S&C staff and I'm sure NBA scouts will perk their ears up given his pedigree even if he would be a year older next year.
Going against Ward, Jones and King would have to be beneficial for both Omaha and JT. Would prepare you for quite the mix of skillsets.
 

Cyclonepride

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That team was markedly more talented than this one.

NBA guys = Shayok, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Haliburton (!!!)

Conditt briefly signed with the Trailblazers and plays for their D-League team.
Lard briefly played for the Magic's D-League Team. Could have been much more.
Nick is having a very good career over in Europe.
Jacobson weirdly has stuck in *NFL* practice squads.

Who even projects to the NBA on the current team outside of Milan?

Omaha based on his recruiting rankings/potential? He's not even playing now.

Maybe Gilbert or Jones? Maybe Tamin? None of them strike me as NBA-level talents.
If Tamin develops his jump shot into a real weapon, I would think he would have a chance.
 

LLCoolCY

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That team was markedly more talented than this one.

NBA guys = Shayok, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Haliburton (!!!)

Conditt briefly signed with the Trailblazers and plays for their D-League team.
Lard briefly played for the Magic's D-League Team. Could have been much more.
Nick is having a very good career over in Europe.
Jacobson weirdly has stuck in *NFL* practice squads.

Who even projects to the NBA on the current team outside of Milan?

Omaha based on his recruiting rankings/potential? He's not even playing now.

Maybe Gilbert or Jones? Maybe Tamin? None of them strike me as NBA-level talents.
Milan and Omaha have opportunities to be 1st round picks after next year.
Tamin and I think he can take a Monte path as a 4 year starter drafted in the 2nd that can be an elite backup PG.
I can also see CuJo getting Vegas invites and opportunity to earn a roster spot. The NBA is thirsty for 6'4" 3 and D guys that can handle the ball.
 

Sigmapolis

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Milan and Omaha have opportunities to be 1st round picks after next year.
Tamin and I think he can take a Monte path as a 4 year starter drafted in the 2nd that can be an elite backup PG.
I can also see CuJo getting Vegas invites and opportunity to earn a roster spot. The NBA is thirsty for 6'4" 3 and D guys that can handle the ball.

Wouldn't Gilbert qualify...?
 

MJ271

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That team was markedly more talented than this one.

NBA guys = Shayok, Wigginton, Horton-Tucker, Haliburton (!!!)

Conditt briefly signed with the Trailblazers and plays for their D-League team.
Lard briefly played for the Magic's D-League Team. Could have been much more.
Nick is having a very good career over in Europe.
Jacobson weirdly has stuck in *NFL* practice squads.

Who even projects to the NBA on the current team outside of Milan?

Omaha based on his recruiting rankings/potential? He's not even playing now.

Maybe Gilbert or Jones? Maybe Tamin? None of them strike me as NBA-level talents.
Gilbert's ceiling is definitely that of an NBA player. But to hit his ceiling, his shot needs to be more consistent and he would need to become a better decision-maker (not so much with passing, more so with picking his spots and not forcing bad shots on drives).

If Tamin continues to work on his shot, I think he could be as well, despite his size. To me, Lipsey's obvious NBA comp is Tre Jones.
 
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bosco

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On a related note, I was looking the "Game Score" graphs of past ISU teams on Torvik and adjusting them to 24 games (since we've only played 24 games so far) and the trajectory of this year's team looks startlingly similar to the 2019 squad. Obviously the identity of TJ's teams are COMPLETELY different than Phrom's, but it just seemed interesting nonetheless.

It looks like the wheels started to come off that year after consecutive home losses to TCU and Baylor, but otherwise that team looked really solid up to a point until they lost 6 of their last 8 games and kinda limped their way to a 6-seed.

The Big 12 is a league where every game is "the most important" but the next two games will probably be the most critical games we've played all season in terms of determining the remaining trajectory of the season. Defend the home court and, if that's successful, Monday night between the league's top two teams that will likely determine who the regular season champ will be.
Here is the Torvik profile of that 2019 team.

Screenshot_20240215_124651_Samsung Internet.jpg

The offensive metrics are similar to TTU's

Screenshot_20240215-115304_Chrome.jpg

I know stylistically and personal are different but found it interesting.

Out of curiosity here is the 2014 Fred team that many felt would have made a deep run if Georgie didn't break his foot.

Not as similar offensively but over all pretty close to Tech.
Screenshot_20240215_115257_Samsung Internet.jpg
 

NoCreativity

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On a related note, I was looking the "Game Score" graphs of past ISU teams on Torvik and adjusting them to 24 games (since we've only played 24 games so far) and the trajectory of this year's team looks startlingly similar to the 2019 squad. Obviously the identity of TJ's teams are COMPLETELY different than Phrom's, but it just seemed interesting nonetheless.

It looks like the wheels started to come off that year after consecutive home losses to TCU and Baylor, but otherwise that team looked really solid up to a point until they lost 6 of their last 8 games and kinda limped their way to a 6-seed.

The Big 12 is a league where every game is "the most important" but the next two games will probably be the most critical games we've played all season in terms of determining the remaining trajectory of the season. Defend the home court and, if that's successful, Monday night between the league's top two teams that will likely determine who the regular season champ will be.
TJ >>>>> Prohm.

At least TJ knows when to rotate 2 of his best players in instead of waiting until 6 minutes into the game no matter what was happening.
 

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