2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Cyhig

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That's pure speculation based on a very small sample size. The ACC was terrible in 2022 then had 3 teams in the Elite 8.
It’s really not speculation. You even said the big 10 was overrated for the 2020-2021 season. It’s tough to judge the strength of teams using metrics collected from almost all within conference play. Rational people will look back at the data and question the authenticity based on the expected results.

The 2022 tournament was a fun one though. St Peters making the elite 8. Duke/UNC final 4 matchup. Iowa State defeating Wisconsin in Milwaukee to go to the sweet 16. I forgot how Iowa did that year…
 

NoCreativity

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It’s really not speculation. You even said the big 10 was overrated for the 2020-2021 season. It’s tough to judge the strength of teams using metrics collected from almost all within conference play. Rational people will look back at the data and question the authenticity based on the expected results.

The 2022 tournament was a fun one though. St Peters making the elite 8. Duke/UNC final 4 matchup. Iowa State defeating Wisconsin in Milwaukee to go to the sweet 16. I forgot how Iowa did that year…
So we should just discount 31 data points in favor of 1 game scenarios in the tournament? Iowa played Gonzaga and North Carolina in the non-conf, Illinois played Duke and Baylor, Ohio State played UCLA, Wisconsin played Marqutte and Loyola,when they were really good.

If you look at Iowa in particular they played Gonzaga, UNC, and Iowa State, that's about on par for how many good games they'll schedule in the non-conference in a normal year. The only difference that year was each team got rid of 5 or 6 cream puff games.

Remember when ISU only won 2 games and in a normal year it would have been 7 or 8.

So you think the data is all skewed just because Iowa didn't have 6 games agaisbt Mississippi Valley State and Eastern Illinois like they normally do? That's a really weak argument and one that you've lost for tonight.
 

Cyhig

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So we should just discount 31 data points in favor of 1 game scenarios in the tournament? Iowa played Gonzaga and North Carolina in the non-conf, Illinois played Duke and Baylor, Ohio State played UCLA, Wisconsin played Marqutte and Loyola,when they were really good.

If you look at Iowa in particular they played Gonzaga, UNC, and Iowa State, that's about on par for how many good games they'll schedule in the non-conference in a normal year. The only difference that year was each team got rid of 5 or 6 cream puff games.

Remember when ISU only won 2 games and in a normal year it would have been 7 or 8.

So you think the data is all skewed just because Iowa didn't have 6 games agaisbt Mississippi Valley State and Eastern Illinois like they normally do? That's a really weak argument and one that you've lost for tonight.
More data = better data. It’s that simple. You agreed the big 10 was over rated in the 2020-2021 season. I’m not sure why you are still trying to argue with yourself

And remember, you even said it was a covid year. Were all the players available and healthy on both teams? Where are the metrics for that? If key players were out, that definitely would affect metrics, especially with a smaller sample size. There were way too many variables to factor for that season.

And that all circles around your first point, which I agree with: the Iowa 2020-21 comparison to the 2023-24 ISU team is not valid. I simply disagreed with your take implying the big 10 was strong that year
 
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Clone95

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This thread usually has really good posts and I’m happy when I see new posts. Now it’s become just like so many others because a Hawk fan couldn’t take it that someone posted they didn’t like that ISU’s metrics looked like the Iowa team that got run out of the gym in round 2.
 

Clone95

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bosco

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.
This thread usually has really good posts and I’m happy when I see new posts. Now it’s become just like so many others because a Hawk fan couldn’t take it that someone posted they didn’t like that ISU’s metrics looked like the Iowa team that got run out of the gym in round 2.
apologize.gif
 

VeloClone

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How do we hold part of Iowa? Baylor beat us and we haven't beat anyone who has beaten Baylor since then?

I love this map, just can't figure it out.
That is UNI's territory so they lost it when they first got beat. And eventually we beat a team that beat a team that beat a team....that beat that team.
 
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jcf817

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UNI's first loss was to North Texas, whose next loss was to St. John's, whose next loss was to Dayton, whose next loss was to Houston, whose next loss was to Iowa State.

Did I do that right?
 

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