2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Letterkenny

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Lipsey's improvement from last year to this year is crazy. I'm pretty proud of myself this offseason for saying that he should at least be in the conversation as a possible leading scorer. However, I didn't really say that because I thought he could improve close to this much, but rather because I thought everyone else had enough questions around them that Tamin should be mentioned as the closest thing to a certainty.

It'll be interesting to see what his ceiling really is, given how much he improved in one offseason. I think it's kind of tough to tell because right now there are still some things he only does when he has to, rather than taking the game over right from the start.
He's up to 42% from 3pt range on the year. That's insane. I was jus hoping he'd be in the low 30's and shoot 1-2 per game to keep teams honest. He's actually hunting 3pt shots now.
 

ebState

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I think the larger point that blowing out bad teams screws up the computer rankings is valid. When Otz still has Jones and Lipsey in with 2 minutes left and we are up 35+ to a school you've never heard we all know what he's doing.

I know we're all homers but does anyone really think we've been the 6th best team in the country so far?


or 11th per KP? (this one is a little more excusable because the formula is trying to predict margin of victory for betters and isn't designed to be used by the committee!)


It'll get sorted out in conference play but we are doing a pretty good job of undermining the NET.
 

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Sigmapolis

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I think the larger point that blowing out bad teams screws up the computer rankings is valid. When Otz still has Jones and Lipsey in with 2 minutes left and we are up 35+ to a school you've never heard we all know what he's doing.

I know we're all homers but does anyone really think we've been the 6th best team in the country so far?


or 11th per KP? (this one is a little more excusable because the formula is trying to predict margin of victory for betters and isn't designed to be used by the committee!)


It'll get sorted out in conference play but we are doing a pretty good job of undermining the NET.

It would help if the NCAA released more documentation on NET.

It is something of a black box right now.

KenPom and Torvik are pretty simple to understand -- they're basically tempo-adjusted versions of the Simple Rating System ("SRS") which any primate with a spreadsheet can easily calculate.

NET however... nobody is quite sure what all is going in there.
 

Gunnerclone

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It would help if the NCAA released more documentation on NET.

It is something of a black box right now.

KenPom and Torvik are pretty simple to understand -- they're basically tempo-adjusted versions of the Simple Rating System ("SRS") which any primate with a spreadsheet can easily calculate.

NET however... nobody is quite sure what all is going in there.

Apparently TJ knows I guess? Per the post above this?
 

Gunnerclone

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I think the larger point that blowing out bad teams screws up the computer rankings is valid. When Otz still has Jones and Lipsey in with 2 minutes left and we are up 35+ to a school you've never heard we all know what he's doing.

I know we're all homers but does anyone really think we've been the 6th best team in the country so far?


or 11th per KP? (this one is a little more excusable because the formula is trying to predict margin of victory for betters and isn't designed to be used by the committee!)


It'll get sorted out in conference play but we are doing a pretty good job of undermining the NET.

We’re not thinking here. These are computer rankings. No thinking needed. Numbers in, numbers out. I don’t know why that is so hard to understand. Make your own formula.
 

VeloClone

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I think the larger point that blowing out bad teams screws up the computer rankings is valid. When Otz still has Jones and Lipsey in with 2 minutes left and we are up 35+ to a school you've never heard we all know what he's doing.

I know we're all homers but does anyone really think we've been the 6th best team in the country so far?


or 11th per KP? (this one is a little more excusable because the formula is trying to predict margin of victory for betters and isn't designed to be used by the committee!)


It'll get sorted out in conference play but we are doing a pretty good job of undermining the NET.
In which games has that happened? I know he brought Lipsey back in when Iowa started pressing the reserves at the under 4 timeout but I'm pretty sure we have all heard of Iowa.
 

Sigmapolis

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Apparently TJ knows I guess? Per the post above this?

"Knows" is more of an intuitive thing there, though.

We think the NET loves overpowering offensive performances (even against junk teams).

TJ seems to be leaning into that. And it seems to be working.

But we don't know the exact code and formulae to be able to recreate everything that goes into it.
 

Cyballzz

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I think the larger point that blowing out bad teams screws up the computer rankings is valid. When Otz still has Jones and Lipsey in with 2 minutes left and we are up 35+ to a school you've never heard we all know what he's doing.

I know we're all homers but does anyone really think we've been the 6th best team in the country so far?


or 11th per KP? (this one is a little more excusable because the formula is trying to predict margin of victory for betters and isn't designed to be used by the committee!)


It'll get sorted out in conference play but we are doing a pretty good job of undermining the NET.

Lipsey averages 31.2 MPG. He is the only player averaging over 30.

Curtis Jones averages 23. Just in case you meant Big Rob... he averages 23 as well. Guys have to play minutes.

We have 7 guys averaging over 15 mpg and when Ward comes back it will be 8. Who exactly isn't getting minutes that you think should be out there?
 
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CyPunch

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I think the larger point that blowing out bad teams screws up the computer rankings is valid. When Otz still has Jones and Lipsey in with 2 minutes left and we are up 35+ to a school you've never heard we all know what he's doing.

I know we're all homers but does anyone really think we've been the 6th best team in the country so far?


or 11th per KP? (this one is a little more excusable because the formula is trying to predict margin of victory for betters and isn't designed to be used by the committee!)


It'll get sorted out in conference play but we are doing a pretty good job of undermining the NET.

You should compare our starter minutes tomorrow night to when Kansas played Eastern Illinois in November..

DaJuan Harris - 36 minutes
Kevin McCullar - 37 minutes
Hunter Dickinson - 35 minutes
KJ Adams - 32 minutes
Elmarko Jackson - 20 minutes

 
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Statefan10

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You should compare our starter minutes tomorrow night to when Kansas played Eastern Illinois in November..

DaJuan Harris - 36 minutes
Kevin McCullar - 37 minutes
Hunter Dickinson - 35 minutes
KJ Adams - 32 minutes
Elmarko Jackson - 20 minutes

Kansas did not play well in that game at all
 
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Halincandenza

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Kansas did not play well in that game at all
Yeah they have played bad in some of their cake walk games. I think part of that from what I have seen when watching them is their starters have all been playing huge minutes and against the lesser teams they have kind of sleepwalked through a lot of the game.
 
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Sigmapolis

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Lipsey averages 31.2 MPG. He is the only player averaging over 30.

Curtis Jones averages 23. Just in case you meant Big Rob... he averages 23 as well. Guys have to play minutes.

We have 7 guys averaging over 15 mpg and when Ward comes back it will be 8. Who exactly isn't getting minutes that you think should be out there?

This happens every year.

Every offseason we talk ourselves into being 10+ deep.

Then reality hits.

Guys get hurt. Guys don't turn out to be as good as we hoped or don't live up to the practice hype. A guy decides he wants to redshirt to develop or save a year of eligibility for later.

The college basketball season is short compared to the NBA, and single elimination in the postseason puts a premium on each and every possession relative to seven-game series. TJ is going to have his best men out there. Fatigue isn't as much of an issue as we might think it is... these guys are 18-25 and in the best shape of their lives. They play two games per week for no more than 40 minutes, and that 40 minutes features no less than eight timeouts for the media plus what the teams call with a 20-minute halftime.

Plenty of breaks in there for a guy in appropriate shape to go hard for 80 minutes per week.

I think we're trending towards playing eight in the Big 12 when things really matter...

Lipsey
Gilbert
Momcilovic
King
Ward
---
J-Pav
Jiggy Curt
Big Rob

...and that's it. And that's fine and that's great!
 

LLCoolCY

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This happens every year.

Every offseason we talk ourselves into being 10+ deep.

Then reality hits.

Guys get hurt. Guys don't turn out to be as good as we hoped or don't live up to the practice hype. A guy decides he wants to redshirt to develop or save a year of eligibility for later.

The college basketball season is short compared to the NBA, and single elimination in the postseason puts a premium on each and every possession relative to seven-game series. TJ is going to have his best men out there. Fatigue isn't as much of an issue as we might think it is... these guys are 18-25 and in the best shape of their lives. They play two games per week for no more than 40 minutes, and that 40 minutes features no less than eight timeouts for the media plus what the teams call with a 20-minute halftime.

Plenty of breaks in there for a guy in appropriate shape to go hard for 80 minutes per week.

I think we're trending towards playing eight in the Big 12 when things really matter...

Lipsey
Gilbert
Momcilovic
King
Ward
---
J-Pav
Jiggy Curt
Big Rob

...and that's it. And that's fine and that's great!
This is the best lineup as of today and should be getting the majority of minutes in January. As you said though it is a long season injuries happen, specific matchups, and/or there may come a time where TJ decides a role shake up may be needed and the top 8 will change. I fully expect we see Biliew and Watson keep working in practice and get on the the floor in meaningful minutes in Feb/March to help this year's team.
 
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cyclones500

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I was trying to think of a recent situation similar to Biliew, regarding minutes played as a "high expectation freshman." Niang might be the only example. .. iirc, he got some significant minutes in rotation in on-con, but I don't think he entered starting lineup until January, early in conference. Omaha situation apparently is a little further behind that.

That might not even be an apt comparison (and obviously under a different coach, roster and situation).
 

Jkclone15

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"Knows" is more of an intuitive thing there, though.

We think the NET loves overpowering offensive performances (even against junk teams).

TJ seems to be leaning into that. And it seems to be working.

But we don't know the exact code and formulae to be able to recreate everything that goes into it.
It helps that Pollard has spent time on the Selection Committee. He has probably as good an idea of the inner workings of the NET and how the committee uses it as anyone.
 

VeloClone

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I was trying to think of a recent situation similar to Biliew, regarding minutes played as a "high expectation freshman." Niang might be the only example. .. iirc, he got some significant minutes in rotation in on-con, but I don't think he entered starting lineup until January, early in conference. Omaha situation apparently is a little further behind that.

That might not even be an apt comparison (and obviously under a different coach, roster and situation).
Yeah, you are mostly right. Georges came in and immediately had 20+ minutes in his first 3 games and 4 of his first 5. He played 33 minutes against Iowa and his first start was the very next game against Omaha on 09 DEC but he didn't start regularly until 09 JAN at Kansas. First Big 12 game as a true freshman was at Phog Allen and he absolutely balled.
 
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VeloClone

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It helps that Pollard has spent time on the Selection Committee. He has probably as good an idea of the inner workings of the NET and how the committee uses it as anyone.
Oh, come on. Probably only a bean counter on the committee would dig deeply into the inner workings of the NET.

Oh...wait a minute. Nevermind...
 
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