2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[houjix]

ESPN also had an article detailing how the last 19 national champs have been ranked at least 12th or better in the week 6 AP poll. (Insider required for the full article)

The unerring accuracy of the AP Week 6 poll

It's only December, but we may already know more than we think we do about who will cut down the nets in April thanks to the Week 6 AP poll.

www.espn.com

BYU (18) does not meet this criteria, so don't bet your bracket on them, Arizona (1), Purdue (2), Houston (4), or Baylor (6) are your presumptive title favorites.

 

[FLYINGCYCLONE]

I think it was in CBS Sports, they had a bracket with Michigan State being a 1 seed. That doesn’t look to good at the moment. After their football coach and the medical guy with the gymnasts, I think, they are worse then Baylor.

 

[ClonesFTW]

I won multiple March Madness pools last year following those KenPom/AP trends. They are legit

 

[Sigmapolis]

B12 is 4/7 at the top when you remove preseason data from Torvik...



5/7 if you count Arizona as an incoming B12 school.

Baylor (#13) and Kansas (#19) and Cincinnati (#22) aren't far behind them.

Simply bonkers. Just when I think the conference can't get any better, it asks me to hold its beer.

 

[Malty Flannel]

Is BYU really that good this year?

 

[qwerty]

Is BYU really that good this year?

Open your door and let them tell you all about it . . . . .

 

[Sigmapolis]

Is BYU really that good this year?

Took down a team that made the Final Four last year (SDSU) and lost to what is a pretty good/tournament team in Utah. The victory over the Aztecs is better than anything Iowa State has right now.

It's just so hard to tell right now. Much of these rankings is based on games against cupcakes. I know Iowa State (and BYU, it seems) have been killing those teams, but that only proves so much.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Open your door and let them tell you all about it . . . . .

 

[Halincandenza]

Is BYU really that good this year?

I think they are good but it is too early to tell how good. Their SOS has been pretty bad.

 

[CloniesForLife]

View attachment 120814

Took down a team that made the Final Four last year (SDSU) and lost to what is a pretty good/tournament team in Utah. The victory over the Aztecs is better than anything Iowa State has right now.

It's just so hard to tell right now. Much of these rankings is based on games against cupcakes. I know Iowa State (and BYU, it seems) have been killing those teams, but that only proves so much.

I kind of view them like us right now. We're both good teams. Are we top 10 teams? Most likely not but we will find out just how good we both are very soon

 

[Chitowncy]

View attachment 120814

Took down a team that made the Final Four last year (SDSU) and lost to what is a pretty good/tournament team in Utah. The victory over the Aztecs is better than anything Iowa State has right now.

It's just so hard to tell right now. Much of these rankings is based on games against cupcakes. I know Iowa State (and BYU, it seems) have been killing those teams, but that only proves so much.

I think BYU will regress and finish in that 7 to 9 seed range for The Tourney. They do have a couple other decent neutral site wins in ASU and North Carolina State. They've set themselves up nicely so that even a 7 - 11 Big XII conference season (with the right wins and losses) should be plenty to get them into the Big Dance. I predict we beat them at ISU and lose at the Marriot Center, but could see us winning there as well.

 

[cydnote]

Is BYU really that good this year?

Preseason, my wife asked me if we were going to be good this year. My reply was: Ya, I think we'll be pretty good, probably about 7th in the Big 12. I think BYU's SOS is slightly better than ours at present but I think there is still too little data to draw any hard conclusions.

 

[EnkAMania]

ESPN also had an article detailing how the last 19 national champs have been ranked at least 12th or better in the week 6 AP poll. (Insider required for the full article)

The unerring accuracy of the AP Week 6 poll

It's only December, but we may already know more than we think we do about who will cut down the nets in April thanks to the Week 6 AP poll.

www.espn.com

BYU (18) does not meet this criteria, so don't bet your bracket on them, Arizona (1), Purdue (2), Houston (4), or Baylor (6) are your presumptive title favorites.

I started collecting things like this for the past 21 tournaments.

KenPom Top 25 21
4 seed or better 20
KenPom Top 25 AdjOff 20
KenPom Top 40 AdjDef 20
Elite 8 Coach 19

 

[HouClone]

Not so sold on Houston. Like last year, their team this year can struggle offensively. Yes, their rebounding and defense are elite but think they will get tripped up in the NCAA Tournament due to their offense.

 

[houjix]

I started collecting things like this for the past 21 tournaments.

KenPom Top 25 21
4 seed or better 20
KenPom Top 25 AdjOff 20
KenPom Top 40 AdjDef 20
Elite 8 Coach 19

But that's all end of year data, correct? I would expect the national champ to be high in most of those metrics by the end of the season. And seeding in the tourney is heavily influenced by those metrics.

What's crazy about the stats Marty and I shared was how the eventual winner was identified in December.

 

[VeloClone]

Five seasons since NET was introduced - holy small sample size, Batman!

 

[cyclones500]

Here's roughly how I'd rank the likelihood of title from among that list.

1 UConn
2 Kansas
3 Arizona
4 North Carolina
5 Houston
6 Baylor
7 Gonzaga
8 Purdue
9 Marquette
10 Tennessee
11 Oklahoma
12 Creighton

 

[ClonesFTW]

But that's all end of year data, correct? I would expect the national champ to be high in most of those metrics by the end of the season. And seeding in the tourney is heavily influenced by those metrics.

What's crazy about the stats Marty and I shared was how the eventual winner was identified in December.

KenPom allows you to sort the data with "pre-tournament" efficiency rankings.

 

[CyPunch]

I think it was in CBS Sports, they had a bracket with Michigan State being a 1 seed. That doesn’t look to good at the moment. After their football coach and the medical guy with the gymnasts, I think, they are worse then Baylor.

No one needs a win more than Izzo today. Losses are stacking up.

 

[CyPunch]

But that's all end of year data, correct? I would expect the national champ to be high in most of those metrics by the end of the season. And seeding in the tourney is heavily influenced by those metrics.

What's crazy about the stats Marty and I shared was how the eventual winner was identified in December.

I filtered out pre-season data on Torrvik

Top 10
1. Houston
2. Arizona
3. Purdue
4. UConn
5. BYU
6. Oklahoma
7. Iowa State (37th AdjO, 6th AdjD, 65th Adj Tempo)
8. Alabama
9. Auburn
10. FAU