2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

They faced off twice last year, Shulga scored 9pts on 1-3 shooting the first game, and 19pts on 6-7 shooting in the second game. But he had a season high 5 turnovers in both games.

Gilbert might turn into a high-level perimeter defender.

But we haven't seen him do it in a Cyclone uniform against high-major peers.

This is one instance where we might miss Kalscheur. A few people on here queried why we were expected to perhaps take a small step back on defense when the team is taller, faster, and stronger than it was last year on the whole. Yes yes but defense is a lot of instinct and lateral quickness -- two things Kalscheur had in spades. He was a pain in the ass to every opponent's best perimeter scorer the past two seasons.

Maybe Gilbert becomes that, but he has much to live up to.

That and playing Milan a ton of minutes (and he's leading the team so far).

I love the kid but nobody is saying he's going to be a plus defender. The best I've heard on that front is "he's not as terrible as we thought he might be" and other similar faint praise.

 

[ZRF]

Gilbert might turn into a high-level perimeter defender.

But we haven't seen him do it in a Cyclone uniform against high-major peers.

This is one instance where we might miss Kalscheur. A few people on here queried why we were expected to perhaps take a small step back on defense when the team is taller, faster, and stronger than it was last year on the whole. Yes yes but defense is a lot of instinct and lateral quickness -- two things Kalscheur had in spades. He was a pain in the ass to every opponent's best perimeter scorer the past two seasons.

Maybe Gilbert becomes that, but he has much to live up to.

That and playing Milan a ton of minutes (and he's leading the team so far).

I love the kid but nobody is saying he's going to be a plus defender. The best I've heard on that front is "he's not as terrible as we thought he might be" and other similar faint praise.

One thing to remember with Milan is that, I'd say defensively, is he is replacing Holmes. Holmes was probably the worst defender on the team by leaps and bounds. Not only is Milan more athletic but he's also MUCH longer than Holmes. So far he's showed to have decent effort and hands but still has a lot of work to do on rotational defense (which I think is mostly a knowledge/communication issue).

I have a really hard time seeing Milan being worse than Holmes. Collectively I think we are much better and deeper in the post (offensively and defensively) and a little better (at least comparable) on the perimeter as a collective (Gilbert, C Jones, this year's Lipsey, Milan, this year Watson > last year Lipsey, last year Watson, Grill, Kal, Holmes).

 

[madguy30]

Gilbert might turn into a high-level perimeter defender.

But we haven't seen him do it in a Cyclone uniform against high-major peers.

This is one instance where we might miss Kalscheur. A few people on here queried why we were expected to perhaps take a small step back on defense when the team is taller, faster, and stronger than it was last year on the whole. Yes yes but defense is a lot of instinct and lateral quickness -- two things Kalscheur had in spades. He was a pain in the ass to every opponent's best perimeter scorer the past two seasons.

Maybe Gilbert becomes that, but he has much to live up to.

That and playing Milan a ton of minutes (and he's leading the team so far).

I love the kid but nobody is saying he's going to be a plus defender. The best I've heard on that front is "he's not as terrible as we thought he might be" and other similar faint praise.

Hopefully the collective length on the team is helpful to make perimeter shots disjointed.

The corners were leaky last year.

 

[ZRF]

I love the kid but nobody is saying he's going to be a plus defender. The best I've heard on that front is "he's not as terrible as we thought he might be" and other similar faint praise.

The great thing about this is that's okay. On this team he just needs to be passable...as in not a sieve, and again he's essentially replacing Holmes defensively. I think he will be alright but expect him to have some bad matchups/performances here and there.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Gilbert might turn into a high-level perimeter defender.

But we haven't seen him do it in a Cyclone uniform against high-major peers.

This is one instance where we might miss Kalscheur. A few people on here queried why we were expected to perhaps take a small step back on defense when the team is taller, faster, and stronger than it was last year on the whole. Yes yes but defense is a lot of instinct and lateral quickness -- two things Kalscheur had in spades. He was a pain in the ass to every opponent's best perimeter scorer the past two seasons.

Maybe Gilbert becomes that, but he has much to live up to.

That and playing Milan a ton of minutes (and he's leading the team so far).

I love the kid but nobody is saying he's going to be a plus defender. The best I've heard on that front is "he's not as terrible as we thought he might be" and other similar faint praise.

Also Kalescheur was elite at using his experience to adapt to different situations and players. That guy had guarded a lot of high level talent through his years in the big 10 and big 12. Experience = overrated on offense and underrated on defense.

 

[ZRF]

Hopefully the collective length on the team is helpful to make perimeter shots disjointed.

The corners were leaky last year.

The length...ability to alter shots...and improved athleticism should (in theory) help immensely. As good of a defender as Kal was he wasn't overly athletic, nor was he long. He was aslo extremely physical (as was Grill). Potentially we will have a great ability to rotate/recover (athetlicism), alter shots, and stay out of foul trouble (a big problem last year). Gilbert is more athletic than Kal (edit) and C Jones/Milan are infinitely more athletic than Holmes/Grill.

It's been talked about, but I don't think foul mitigation has been talked about near enough. I expect us to commit less fouls, which keeps our better players on the floor, and the opposition off the line. If that happens that's a huge win by itself.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Gilbert might turn into a high-level perimeter defender.

But we haven't seen him do it in a Cyclone uniform against high-major peers.

This is one instance where we might miss Kalscheur. A few people on here queried why we were expected to perhaps take a small step back on defense when the team is taller, faster, and stronger than it was last year on the whole. Yes yes but defense is a lot of instinct and lateral quickness -- two things Kalscheur had in spades. He was a pain in the ass to every opponent's best perimeter scorer the past two seasons.

Maybe Gilbert becomes that, but he has much to live up to.

That and playing Milan a ton of minutes (and he's leading the team so far).

I love the kid but nobody is saying he's going to be a plus defender. The best I've heard on that front is "he's not as terrible as we thought he might be" and other similar faint praise.

Hard to expect him to be as good as Gabe, but if he can still be really good on that end, he more than makes up for it on the other end.

 

[ZRF]

Also Kalescheur was elite at using his experience to adapt to different situations and players. That guy had guarded a lot of high level talent through his years in the big 10 and big 12. Experience = overrated on offense and underrated on defense.

He was but if there was one complaint defensively was our propensity to ride the **** out of guys when it wasn't necessary. At times Kal, Grill (especially him) and Lipsey were all guilty of that. Part of it was a philsophy but some of it was partially out of necessity. I'm hoping the athleticism and space allows us to stay out of those situations (more) and avoid those really stupid fouls.

There was nothing more irritating watching Lipsey body someone 10 feet behind the 3 point line and pick up a cheap foul. Hoping we don't see as much of that this year.

 

[WastedTalent]

The length...ability to alter shots...and improved athleticism should (in theory) help immensely. As good of a defender as Kal was he wasn't overly athletic, nor was he long. He was aslo extremely physical (as was Grill). Potentially we will have a great ability to rotate/recover (athetlicism), alter shots, and stay out of foul trouble (a big problem last year). Gilbert is more athletic than Kal (edit) and C Jones/Milan are infinitely more athletic than Holmes/Grill.

It's been talked about, but I don't think foul mitigation has been talked about near enough. I expect us to commit less fouls, which keeps our better players on the floor, and the opposition off the line. If that happens that's a huge win by itself.

Gabe was able to guard the best backcourt player, and sometimes a smaller forward, similar to what Chris Babb was in his time. This allowed the other defenders to help where needed.

This year's team doesn't appear to have the guy that can lock down the other teams best player, but as you've said, the increased athleticism and versatility of the current guys allows them to play more of a team defense.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Gabe was able to guard the best backcourt player, and sometimes a smaller forward, similar to what Chris Babb was in his time. This allowed the other defenders to help where needed.

This year's team doesn't appear to have the guy that can lock down the other teams best player, but as you've said, the increased athleticism and versatility of the current guys allows them to play more of a team defense.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson get that type of role. He's not going to be Babb but has the size and athleticism to guard 2-4. It would be a ideal path for him to earn minutes.

As for Milan we shouldn't expect him to be a "plus" defender but he doesn't need to be. He knows his limitations there and you can tell he is focused on being in the correct position even if his lack of foot speed doesn't allow him to always get there. With the effort there he can use his size and smarts to just be passable on D he'll be a huge asset as we've already seen what he brings on offense.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson get that type of role. He's not going to be Babb but has the size and athleticism to guard 2-4. It would be a ideal path for him to earn minutes.

As for Milan we shouldn't expect him to be a "plus" defender but he doesn't need to be. He knows his limitations there and you can tell he is focused on being in the correct position even if his lack of foot speed doesn't allow him to always get there. With the effort there he can use his size and smarts to just be passable on D he'll be a huge asset as we've already seen what he brings on offense.

Great point. He could be in the bullpen and come in to get after a hot player. Wouldn't necessarily have to worry too much about foul trouble either.

 

[ZRF]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson get that type of role. He's not going to be Babb but has the size and athleticism to guard 2-4. It would be a ideal path for him to earn minutes.

As for Milan we shouldn't expect him to be a "plus" defender but he doesn't need to be. He knows his limitations there and you can tell he is focused on being in the correct position even if his lack of foot speed doesn't allow him to always get there. With the effort there he can use his size and smarts to just be passable on D he'll be a huge asset as we've already seen what he brings on offense.

Last game Milan looked a lot rougher on his rotational defense than he did in the first two but he will have nights like that. Given he's a freshman, played 3 games in a week, and had his "toughest" night from the floor I'm going to say he was probably tired.

We've shown it at times but it also can't be understated how much better our zone defensive profile is and I think Milan has looked better as a zone defender than in man to man. About the only guys perimeter guys that had the profile to play zone were Watson and Lipsey. As good of a defender as Kal was, he wasn't ideal for zone. I think our zone will be deadly, help reduce fouls, and lead to a lot of fastbreak opps.

 

[ZRF]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson get that type of role. He's not going to be Babb but has the size and athleticism to guard 2-4. It would be a ideal path for him to earn minutes.

As for Milan we shouldn't expect him to be a "plus" defender but he doesn't need to be. He knows his limitations there and you can tell he is focused on being in the correct position even if his lack of foot speed doesn't allow him to always get there. With the effort there he can use his size and smarts to just be passable on D he'll be a huge asset as we've already seen what he brings on offense.

Watson might have the highest defensive ceiling of anyone on the team. He's long, athletic, and moves his feet and body well on penetration. He just needs to focus a bit more as he would sometimes get napping on a sag and get caught on skipping passes and quick ball reversals.

Outside our size guys like Watson, King, and especially Holmes would be "asleep at the wheel". If Watson maintains focus he is an elite defender.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Last game Milan looked a lot rougher on his rotational defense than he did in the first two but he will have nights like that. Given he's a freshman, played 3 games in a week, and had his "toughest" night from the floor I'm going to say he was probably tired.

We've shown it at times but it also can't be understated how much better our zone defensive profile is and I think Milan has looked better as a zone defender than in man to man. About the only guys perimeter guys that had the profile to play zone were Watson and Lipsey. As good of a defender as Kal was, he wasn't ideal for zone. I think our zone will be deadly, help reduce fouls, and lead to a lot of fastbreak opps.

Playing a zone with Kalscheur out there is an inefficient deployment of your resources.

Like making your best pitcher into your 8th inning guy instead of your ace starter.

 

[VeloClone]

I sure hope so and that continues.

If somebody with a money-printing machine is willing to throw something close to seven figures at Tyrese Hunter... and Tamin is at worst just as good as Hunter if not better... then eek.

I'd love nothing more than Tamin to be a Cyclone for life despite those temptations.

It would be a riot for a player like Tamin to keep a list of all of the offers he got complete with dollar amount and publish them as the next season approaches with a comment that playing for TJ with this group of guys is easily worth more than all of these offers combined. Bonus is it would be something of a black eye to those other programs as well.

 

[VeloClone]

I agree. After watching KU last night though they confirmed my thoughts. They really lack a perimeter go to scorer and shooting. With Houston being really good defensively and tougher in the paint I expect KU to struggle against them. But we will see.

My takeaway from what little I saw is that officials are going to let Dickinson get away with whatever he wants in the post. If they give him the star treatment all season long it will be another Kansas banner by the first of March.

 

[ZRF]

Playing a zone with Kalscheur out there is an inefficient deployment of your resources.

Like making your best pitcher into your 8th inning guy instead of your ace starter.

That's not true. Not only because Kal didn't play defense by himself but his acumen for one on one defense had nothing to do with it's lack of deployment.

We simply lacked the size, athletic profile, and maybe even the coaching ability to properly deploy it (not sure how much TJ used it at his other stops if he did at all). When used it was often a short changeup (sometimes even a single possession) or out of necessity (foul trouble). It often appeared to be poorly coached as we were often terrible with flow, communication and rotations. We did show some glimpses late in the season, especially when Watson and Ward got more playing time, of using it effectively.

It was pretty clear, even in the first game this year, TJ and co spent a significant amount of time learning/coaching/preparing for zone utilization in practice. I wouldn't doubt if we have forced more TOs out of the zone in 3 games than we did ALL of last season. With Lipsey (great defender in any defense), Ward, Watson, King, Gilbert, Biliew, C Jones, R Jones, and even Milan we have such a better athletic and length profile. Defensively we will be infinitely more versatile.

 

[dafarmer]

I remember a few posts last year blasting Gabe on his shooting and not on what he brought to the team as a whole. I always loved the effort he gave, no matter if his shots weren't falling.

 

[NENick]

I remember a few posts last year blasting Gabe on his shooting and not on what he brought to the team as a whole. I always loved the effort he gave, no matter if his shots weren't falling.

Gabe displayed this for 2 years and I agree with Sig that his strength was man to man D. I also appreciated Holmes for his year and don't agree with ZRF that he was a terrible defender.

As for playing zone this year, I like using it and think the personnel fits it well. More than anything else, I think TJ sees it as a way to help avoid foul trouble by the post players.

 

[Sigmapolis]

That's not true. Not only because Kal didn't play defense by himself but his acumen for one on one defense had nothing to do with it's lack of deployment.

We simply lacked the size, athletic profile, and maybe even the coaching ability to properly deploy it (not sure how much TJ used it at his other stops if he did at all). When used it was often a short changeup (sometimes even a single possession) or out of necessity (foul trouble). It often appeared to be poorly coached as we were often terrible with flow, communication and rotations. We did show some glimpses late in the season, especially when Watson and Ward got more playing time, of using it effectively.

It was pretty clear, even in the first game this year, TJ and co spent a significant amount of time learning/coaching/preparing for zone utilization in practice. I wouldn't doubt if we have forced more TOs out of the zone in 3 games than we did ALL of last season. With Lipsey (great defender in any defense), Ward, Watson, King, Gilbert, Biliew, C Jones, R Jones, and even Milan we have such a better athletic and length profile. Defensively we will be infinitely more versatile.

I wouldn't disagree with you the zone last year was a half-assed changeup to mess with the other team occasionally and/or an attempt to keep Osunniyi or King out of foul trouble.

They weren't committed to it from a scheme perspective, never seemed to have their heart into it the way they did playing man-to-man, and their personnel wasn't a great fit for it.

One of the intractable weaknesses of a zone defense is it allows your opponent to dictate matchups. You have the same problem with the "switch everything" man-to-man style against the P&R.

The point of having a guy like Kalscheur on the roster -- a good though streaker shooter but a beast of a man-to-man defender -- is to erase your opponents' best perimeter scorer or at least force them into a degree of mistakes and inefficiency that means they're dragging their team down with them.

Football schemes run into the same problem. Unless you're playing some sort of man or matchup concept with coverage over the top from the safeties, then that lockdown CB might not always be matched up with the best WR on the other team. And you know the offensive coordinator on the other side is doing everything they can to get their best players away from your best CB. Dictating matchups is power.

Putting a guy with Kalscheur-level lateral quickness but small size/wingspan for his position is just a waste of resources in a zone. There's a bunch of reasons it was never a primary look the past two years.

I agree with you this year might be different, though. The athleticism and length is there to do it. There isn't an ace defender (though Gilbert could emerge as one... Lipsey is close) who you want dogging the best player on the other team any time they're on the court. A zone might actually be useful for hiding Milan.

I'm sure we'll see more and a better version of it this year.

I just think a defense that lets an opponent get their best scorers away from a guy like Kalscheur without too much trouble is a defense that isn't maximizing your strengths as a roster.