WAY better than last year with Holmes and Gabe as the backups... that was dicey af against certain teams.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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- bracketology cyclones net quad rankings
Yeah, Tamin was pretty much the only guy last year that could be counted upon to beat anyone off the dribble, which made us a team of jump shooters with him on the bench.
Would love to see this team find a way to get to 6+ threes made per game versus the 3 we are averaging through the first three games. We are 14/14 in 3 point rate in the conference, that won't cut it in March.
That is the only significant deficiency on this team, if we can fix that... LOOK OUT!
That is the only significant deficiency on this team, if we can fix that... LOOK OUT!
Which is odd, too. All 3 guards brought in shot it at 35% or better a year ago. Gilbert was low volume, but C Jones and Pav had 100+attempts.
Since the talent to shoot is there I'm not as worried about this compared to TJ's first two seasons.
We should adjust our 3% percentage projections to competition going forward..
Milan - 41.8% for the season (31.3% in conference, 36.4% against Top 100, 29.2% against Top 50)
Tamin - 37.9% for the season (11.1% in conference, 21.1% against Top 100, 9.1% against Top 50)
- Basically the same % as he shot last season
- Last season - 35.1% for the season (35% in conference, 21.2% against Top 100, 50% against Top 50)
- Last season - 37.1% for the season (25% in conference, 34.4% against Top 100, 14.3% against Top 50)
- Last season - 37.4% for the season (35.7% in conference, 40% against Top 100, 44.4% against Top 50)
Now, this season is only 1/2 over, we've played 3 very good defensive teams to start conference play, and conference play is not even 25% done. So these will self correct some, but it's a little alarming, outside of Pav what our guys have shot against high level competition in their careers.. Plus all Big 12 teams, except WV are currently top 100 defensive teams, with 1/2 the league being top 30 defenses.
I'm not even the slightest bit alarmed by any of that.
I'm less worried because our interior play is so strong this year and we have guys who can win off the dribble versus the last two years. Our best hope for 3 point shooting is teams start packing the middle and allow for more open attempts.
Shooting 40% from 3 with this team in this league is a pipe dream. I’d be really happy at 35%.
The team is shooting 35% from three on the season........ 19.6% if you adjust for 3 conference games, 19.4% if you take out Houston, since they are an elite defense
This team will finish top 4 in the league of we can shoot 35% on the season. I'd take 33% at this point (6/18 average).
We are really good scoring in the paint and forcing turnovers that lead to fast break points. So a competent shooting percentage would make us top 4 in the conference
Small sample size. Look at these numbers again after 8-10 conference games
I'd be happy with 33%. 40% is a pipe dream
There are 3 high major teams in the country shooting 40% from three. We'll see how long that lasts with conference play increasing competition levels.
The #1 3PT% shooting team in the country is Baylor at 43.7%.
In Big 12 play Baylor is shooting 29.3% from 3PT through 3 games against Ok State, BYU, and Cincy.
3pt shooting today isn't what it was 10 years ago with the line moving back. 35% is the new 40%. 40% is the new 45%. 40% is the modern era is elite for any individual, much less a whole team hitting that mark.
Burn the tape on that one. I hope Tamin's arm is okay. I hold my breath every time he's out there. Everything on offense and defense just seems to go so much better with him.
Sign me up for 7-2 over the next 9!
Really weird that our tournament odds would drop 8% from a loss that was expected, but that's computer models I suppose.
Didn't really expect a 15 point loss.
